How long to 50k Trucks delivered? (Plotted out)

[TyPope]

Ty, buddy. You know I am a bull. I am your friend. i love you.

There is not going to be 200k trucks made next year.

Your attrition guess isn't crazy though, the take rate will be 30-40% I'd guess.

April 2022 was the start of production of the Model Y at GigaTexas. In October, they were producing 3,000 per week. In December, they produced their 20,000th vehicle.

The CT will likely "start production" a month later in the year than the MY did. Using the Model Y ramp at GigaTexas as an example plus a month head start because the factory is better situated than it was with the Model Y, they'll produce their 20,000th CT December 2023.

I assume that the CT will ALSO be at 3,000 units per week by then.
I also assume it will take them less than 4 months to go from 3,000 to 4,000 and then to 5,000 per week.

Let's math that. (Yes, I know assumptions are like @$$ holes... But, since it's in the future, we HAVE to make assumptions and I'm doing that using the MY ramp)


3,000 per week in the first 4 months (16 weeks) makes 48,000 Cybertrucks
4,000 per week starting in May 2024 for another 16 weeks) makes 64,000 more Cybertrucks
5,000 per week starting in September 2024 for the rest of the year (20 weeks) makes 100,000 more Cybertrucks.
48,000 + 64,000 + 100,000 = 212,000

Aggressive? Sure
Assuming no global stoppage/shortage? Yes
Based on known performance/ramping data? Yes
Math based? Yes

Completely my own educated guess? Yes.

There. The Pope called it... 212,000 Cybertrucks will be produced in 2024.

I have said it, so shall it be.

Sponsored

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

I need to know your assumptions other than 12/18 month ramp to full production. Please provide the following:

1. Are you assuming a single trim or all trims at start because the reservation numbers include all trims but Tesla never starts with all trims. Which trim are you assuming will be manufactured first? Quad, Tri, Dual?
2. What are you assuming will be the conversion rate to the first trim offered? 20% to Quad, 30% to Tri, 40% to Dual?
3. What are you assuming will be the non-conversion (to sale) rate? 20%? 30%?
4. Your graphs all assume that no more than about 10K units will be produced in 2023. What if you doubled that to 25,000 (which would split the difference between your 10K and the Model Y 50K)?

Could we just shift your graph to the left? You are saying that with an 18m ramp starting at 10K at the end of 2023 we will hit 50K in June of 2024 (6 months later) but if we start at 25K at the end of 2023 then that same point would be hit mid-March 2024. So we should hit 50K sometime between April and June depending on how many CTs are produced in 2023.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

April 2022 was the start of production of the Model Y at GigaTexas. In October, they were producing 3,000 per week. In December, they produced their 20,000th vehicle.

The CT will likely "start production" a month later in the year than the MY did. Using the Model Y ramp at GigaTexas as an example plus a month head start because the factory is better situated than it was with the Model Y, they'll produce their 20,000th CT December 2023.

I assume that the CT will ALSO be at 3,000 units per week by then.
I also assume it will take them less than 4 months to go from 3,000 to 4,000 and then to 5,000 per week.

Let's math that. (Yes, I know assumptions are like @$$ holes... But, since it's in the future, we HAVE to make assumptions and I'm doing that using the MY ramp)


3,000 per week in the first 4 months (16 weeks) makes 48,000 Cybertrucks
4,000 per week starting in May 2024 for another 16 weeks) makes 64,000 more Cybertrucks
5,000 per week starting in September 2024 for the rest of the year (20 weeks) makes 100,000 more Cybertrucks.
48,000 + 64,000 + 100,000 = 212,000

Aggressive? Sure
Assuming no global stoppage/shortage? Yes
Based on known performance/ramping data? Yes
Math based? Yes

Completely my own educated guess? Yes.

There. The Pope called it... 212,000 Cybertrucks will be produced in 2024.

I have said it, so shall it be.

Model Y production was pretty much shut down when they stopped 4680 production and started up 2170 production. All predictions that compare Model Y production should probably drop 1-2 months on the ramp. So June, meaning that Model Y production reached 3,000 per week in about 6 months.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

People Elon trusts are first in line after employee validation and I predict people with several orders come after that.

I would like to see people with several reservations put at the bottom of the list, or deliver 1 of them and then the rest to the bottom.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

How can you tell what reservation number you are??

When you reserved Tesla gave you a reservation number. You can plug that into the 'spreadsheet' (see reservations tab above for instructions), along with other information, and then go to another site (wasn't working the last time I tried) to find your place in line for your reserved trim.

 

[Ogre]

I need to know your assumptions other than 12/18 month ramp to full production. Please provide the following:

1. Are you assuming a single trim or all trims at start because the reservation numbers include all trims but Tesla never starts with all trims. Which trim are you assuming will be manufactured first? Quad, Tri, Dual?
2. What are you assuming will be the conversion rate to the first trim offered? 20% to Quad, 30% to Tri, 40% to Dual?
3. What are you assuming will be the non-conversion (to sale) rate? 20%? 30%?

Not really trying to assume anything. Right now we don’t have a separate count of make on the Model Y AWD LR vs Model Y AWD either. Tesla doesn’t break things down that granular on production numbers.

Most likely production will start with what Musk said most recently: Quad motor. But if 4680 production is slow, maybe the dual motor is first out. I don’t know or think that effects raw number of trucks produced. Personally, I’m going to take whichever truck I can get first regardless of trim.

4. Your graphs all assume that no more than about 10K units will be produced in 2023. What if you doubled that to 25,000 (which would split the difference between your 10K and the Model Y 50K)?

Could we just shift your graph to the left? You are saying that with an 18m ramp starting at 10K at the end of 2023 we will hit 50K in June of 2024 (6 months later) but if we start at 25K at the end of 2023 then that same point would be hit mid-March 2024. So we should hit 50K sometime between April and June depending on how many CTs are produced in 2023.

I pasted the numbers at the bottom of the chart so you can see where I get that 10,000 number from. Essentially I’m assuming a start production of around 1,000/ month and modeling growth rates based on the comments Tesla has said about ramp speeds (usually takes 12-18 months to ramp) and production start in summer. The growth rates are also in the table.

This is my projection, it’s certainly not definitive. If you think production will start sooner or will be faster out the gate then just shift the dates to the left a bit.

 

[John K]

I’m at 59XX, but since mine is a dual-motor without FSD, I live in Los Angeles, and this would be my first Tesla, I’m more concerned about all the people that Tesla will jump me for highest spec models, closer locations to TX, multiple prior Tesla owners, celebrities and other influencers, etc.

Living in Los Angeles with a dual motor FSD puts you on the priority list. Trust me… I have a vested interest ?

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Not really trying to assume anything. Right now we don’t have a separate count of make on the Model Y AWD LR vs Model Y AWD either. Tesla doesn’t break things down that granular on production numbers.

Most likely production will start with what Musk said most recently: Quad motor. But if 4680 production is slow, maybe the dual motor is first out. I don’t know or think that effects raw number of trucks produced. Personally, I’m going to take whichever truck I can get first regardless of trim.



I pasted the numbers at the bottom of the chart so you can see where I get that 10,000 number from. Essentially I’m assuming a start production of around 1,000/ month and modeling growth rates based on the comments Tesla has said about ramp speeds (usually takes 12-18 months to ramp) and production start in summer. The growth rates are also in the table.

This is my projection, it’s certainly not definitive. If you think production will start sooner or will be faster out the gate then just shift the dates to the left a bit.

But you do know that Tesla only starts with a single trim, and you know what the percentage of CT trims were at the beginning single - 20%, dual and tri - 40% each. They are still only making a single Model Y trim at Austin as far as I know, LRDM and LRP (which is basically identical). So any projection has to start with a particular trim, guess how many people will opt to convert to that trim, how many will not buy even at the trim they reserved, and layer that on top of the production rate. That is what they people that put the spreadsheet together were trying to do; they just dropped the ball back in 2020 when delays started happening. I think it is fine to make a stab at all of this - in fact I appreciate it - but the assumptions have to be stated or it isn't meaningful.

 

[Alan]

They are also making the standard range dual motor with the 4680’s

 

[DallasCyberTruck]

It could be similar to the ramp up of Model 3 production a few years ago. However, they didn’t have to bend stainless steel to build Model 3’s either.

 

[charliemagpie]

Elon said they are at 1000 packs per week.

Also mentioned is 1 out 4 batteries lines in production. The other 3 are being installed.

If they haven't progressed, worst case, 4680 pack capacity coming online within a reasonable 12 month timeframe is min. 4000 per week.

There is also maybe a need to divert some packs... but then there are other locations producing 4680's too.

4680 progress only has to make a little jump to easily reach 300,000 packs next year.

 

[Ogre]

But you do know that Tesla only starts with a single trim, and you know what the percentage of CT trims were at the beginning single - 20%, dual and tri - 40% each. They are still only making a single Model Y trim at Austin as far as I know, LRDM and LRP (which is basically identical). So any projection has to start with a particular trim, guess how many people will opt to convert to that trim, how many will not buy even at the trim they reserved, and layer that on top of the production rate. That is what they people that put the spreadsheet together were trying to do; they just dropped the ball back in 2020 when delays started happening. I think it is fine to make a stab at all of this - in fact I appreciate it - but the assumptions have to be stated or it isn't meaningful.

I’m projecting how many trucks Tesla will make. Not what flavor or how many people cancel or change reservations. Just a simple number: How many trucks roll out the door.

 

[Ogre]

It could be similar to the ramp up of Model 3 production a few years ago. However, they didn’t have to bend stainless steel to build Model 3’s either.

No, but the folded stainless results in fewer total parts and there is no painting step at all.

 

[TyPope]

Model Y production was pretty much shut down when they stopped 4680 production and started up 2170 production. All predictions that compare Model Y production should probably drop 1-2 months on the ramp. So June, meaning that Model Y production reached 3,000 per week in about 6 months.

Yeah, you are right. While "hope" isn't a plan, I hope that there are plenty of the 4680s available for the CT to ensure smooth production.

Honestly, I think that one day, @JoeTegtmeyer is going to fly and suddenly, there will be 5 or 6 CTs parked outside. A few days later, there will be an additional 10. Suddenly, they will be plentiful. We may never see scrap CT castings like we did for the MY.

 

[HaulingAss]

Honestly, I think that one day, @JoeTegtmeyer is going to fly and suddenly, there will be 5 or 6 CTs parked outside. A few days later, there will be an additional 10. Suddenly, they will be plentiful. We may never see scrap CT castings like we did for the MY.

Why do you think there will be no visible scrap castings for the early Cybertruck production? I can guarantee they can't put the castings into production without scraping at least the first 50, at a minimum, probably a few hundred. Are you thinking they will recycle them inside the plant into new castings without moving them outside first? I think that unlikely in warm Texas weather that is likely to exist near the beginning of production.

Sponsored