Reservation Dropout Percentage

[Ogre]

Way back in Early 2020 Musk said the backlog was so big it would take 3-4 years for them to catch up.

https://www.cybertruckownersclub.co...-4-years-production-to-fulfill-says-musk.544/

More recently he echoed a similar comment.

At this point everything is up in the air. I don’t know why people want to try and pin down things like dropout rate when we really have no clue what production looks like. If people who ordered in February of 2020 are looking at waiting until start of production + 3 years, that’s sometime in 2026 - 2027.

So much has changed since launch I think it’s hard to say what things look like in terms of dropouts.

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[Crissa]

Curious how so many quote their # in line with conviction when many long time members are calling the reservation list bogus. I reserved spring of 21 and subtracting the numbers puts me 2.5M back in line

I'm not sure why you'd do that when the reservation numbers are the same ones used for Model Y, Plaid S/X, Roadster, Semi, solar roofs, and such that are also waiting their chance to order...

The tracker attempts to estimate that out. And it was keeping up with Elon's announcements in the first few weeks.

-Crissa

 

[JBee]

I put in my reservation about 1 hour after the online reveal, after I saw ride along videos, I was hooked. But, my reservation is #39,xxx. At the time of the reveal there was a large percentage of people thinking Robotaxi's were highly possible by the time of delivery. This had lots of people making multiple reservations. In addition to the possibility of lots of those reservations being drop-outs, there is the possibility that Tesla will not honor several of those reservations also. I would be surprised if there's even 75% take, in the first 100,000 reservations.

So when you get yours PM me pls so I can book my ticket to come and pickup mine! ? I'm just a couple thousand behind you and done the same thing when I saw them driving around. When it first opened I couldn't get in and thought to myself most people won't like that roof line and looks, no sweat I've got time. Then I saw the peoples livestream responses there and I thought wait a minute...I need to get one quick!

 

[Sirfun]

So when you get yours PM me pls so I can book my ticket to come and pickup mine! ? I'm just a couple thousand behind you and done the same thing when I saw them driving around. When it first opened I couldn't get in and thought to myself most people won't like that roof line and looks, no sweat I've got time. Then I saw the peoples livestream responses there and I thought wait a minute...I need to get one quick!

I was worried about the roof line too. Than I saw big adult men in the back seat with lots of room. When they asked one guy, his response was "I'm 6'-3" and there's lots of room. That was it for me. Room for wife and family to go play!!!!!

BTW, I'm hoping to post a photo on the forum, of me and my CT in front of the factory as soon as I get mine! Probably many months after others have. Hopefully there will be a thread full of people posting photos of their deliveries. So if we're annoyed by all the people showing off their new toy, we can just ignore that thread.

 

[SolarWizard]

If you flip a couple vehicles, there is a chance you will get blacklisted.

They don’t try and pre-empt it though. At least I haven’t seen any cases of this.

That only matters if you flip some before your orders are fulfilled. ?

 

[Mini2nut]

30% drop rate if my MSRP predictions are correct.

I’m expecting new MSRP’s to be 30% higher than announced in Q4 2019

-Single Motor: was $40k, trim level pulled
-Dual Motor: was $50k, now $65k for base model (no RWS option)
-Tri Motor: was $70k, now $91,000 for base model (RWS optional)
-Quad Motor: Never announced, over $100k for base model (RWS standard)

 

[Ogre]

With regards to the rear seat and headroom. This guy took a selfie in the back seat on launch night. I have no idea how tall this dude is, but looks like he has tons of headroom. (This is the OG truck FWIW)

 

[Ogre]

I’m not sure what that’s supposed to mean. While we don’t have a ton of visibility, it seems pretty clear orders are at least in the high hundreds of thousands. Musk is at most confirming what independent sources are already seeing.

 

[DMC-81]

I have a confession to make.

I made a Silverado reservation the other day. $100. They took it. Easy. So easy. But like, not as easy as the Cybertruck. I've gotten a few emails since then. But I've responded to nothing. I have no intention to go through with my purchase. I almost immediately regretted it. Like why'd I do that? Whatever. JIC. i got a reservation.

snip~

No worries. I made one too within 5 minutes of the reveal (01/05/2022), as a back-up.

 

[Crissa]

30% drop rate if my MSRP predictions are correct.

I’m expecting new MSRP’s to be 30% higher than announced in Q4 2019

-Single Motor: was $40k, trim level pulled
-Dual Motor: was $50k, now $65k for base model (no RWS option)
-Tri Motor: was $70k, now $91,000 for base model (RWS optional)
-Quad Motor: Never announced, over $100k for base model (RWS standard)

Can we stop with the assumptions told as declarations? We don't know of any price increases. Most Tesla sales are back to their pre-inflation prices.

-Crissa

 

[Mini2nut]

Prices were dropped due to slowing sales. Tesla wants to keep their assembly plants humming. Demand is off the chart for the Cybertruck. They can charge anything they want at this point and it will sell.

 

[Ogre]

Prices were dropped due to slowing sales. Tesla wants to keep their assembly plants humming. Demand is off the chart for the Cybertruck. They can charge anything they want at this point and it will sell.

GM just cut production due to poor demand.

Almost every vehicle over $50k is suffering from demand issues right now due to high interest rates.

 

[HaulingAss]

That only matters if you flip some before your orders are fulfilled. ?

That assumes they will deliver multiple Cybertrucks to the same Tesla account consecutively. It might be one at a time, hard to say because I don't recall any reported instances of people ordering multiple other models during or shortly after a reveal event.

 

[HaulingAss]

30% drop rate if my MSRP predictions are correct.

I’m expecting new MSRP’s to be 30% higher than announced in Q4 2019

-Single Motor: was $40k, trim level pulled
-Dual Motor: was $50k, now $65k for base model (no RWS option)
-Tri Motor: was $70k, now $91,000 for base model (RWS optional)
-Quad Motor: Never announced, over $100k for base model (RWS standard)

I can see you are going to be pleasantly surprised! That's the best thing about having overly pessimistic expectations!

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