More Tesla price cuts === cheaper Cybertruck (6 oct)

[HaulingAss]

One of the reasons that other EV trucks are more expensive (100 k) is because their long range versions have massive batteries like 200 KWh for the Hummer, Lightning, Silverado and now the Ram. Because the CT is designed so much more efficiently, I wager that the 500 mile version (either 3 motor or quad) will have at most 150 KWh, which should result in a relatively lower price than the other trucks

The higher efficiency/smaller battery per mile of range of the Cybertruck is only one reason why it will be cheaper. Another big reason is manufacturing efficiency. All legacy manufacturers have forgotten how to manufacture efficiently, and the other EV start-ups still haven't figured it out yet. Tesla is more efficient at manufacturing than any of them (and the difference is not small).

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[HaulingAss]

CT getting 2.5 miles per kWh would be an impressive feat. The model Y is 3 miles. Rivain/Lightning closer to 2 mi/kWh.

No, the Standard Model Y is 26 kWh per 100 miles or almost 4 miles per kWh. The Long-Range AWD is 28 kWh per 100 miles, not a huge difference.

 

[TBONO]

Do you normally switch to insults?

Like:



Notably, the Lightning is not the truck that anyone at Tesla compared the Cybertruck to. It didn't exist when Tesla launched the Cybertruck, and it wasn't the measure by which the Cybertruck was launched against - weight, price, capabilities.

Why would they limit the Cybertruck by what Ford was able to do with the Lightning?

Your arguments just skip around and are disingenuous.

-Crissa

I don’t think those are insults.

I address all the questions head-on. However, you’re the one that ducks questions like “pricing being different” Putting that out there and implying it was not meant as higher….uh yeah.

I used Ford F150 and F150 lightning interchangeably as a benchmark as yes, the lightning was not available when cyber truck was unveiled the F150 was which Tesla clearly referenced as the benchmark/competition. Not sure why one would not think the lightning electric version of this would not be something to Benchmark against

defies logic.

 

[Crissa]

I used Ford F150 and F150 lightning interchangeably as a benchmark as yes, the lightning was not available when cyber truck was unveiled the F150 was which Tesla clearly referenced as the benchmark/competition. Not sure why one would not think the lightning electric version of this would not be something to Benchmark against

defies logic.

How? The Lightning is a minority of F150 sales. By like, alot. The Lightning isn't priced like the rest of the F150s. It was released at the prices the Cybertruck was, but they weren't making money at those points, and it only got worse. The Lightning didn't even hit the benchmarks the Cybertruck was aiming at.

So why would the Cybertruck suddenly be aimed at this lower target?

-Crissa

 

[TBONO]

How? The Lightning is a minority of F150 sales. By like, alot. The Lightning isn't priced like the rest of the F150s. It was released at the prices the Cybertruck was, but they weren't making money at those points, and it only got worse. The Lightning didn't even hit the benchmarks the Cybertruck was aiming at.

So why would the Cybertruck suddenly be aimed at this lower target?

-Crissa

Oh, OK. I see your point

no I do not think cybertruck design target is the lightning , the cyber truck should blow it away. In specs and performance that’s why I find it hard to believe it will be priced so much less than what the current lightning is going for but again I think we should just agree to disagree on that one and see how the pricing turns out.

My point on competition with an F150 being the benchmark is that is a benchmark of a full size truck, and that’s what the cyber truck is.

 

[Deleted member 3316]

Your arguments just skip around and are disingenuous.

-Crissa

Oh the hypocrisy is delicious… You crack me up Crissa.

 

[firsttruck]

Oh, OK. I see your point

no I do not think cybertruck design target is the lightning , the cyber truck should blow it away. In specs and performance that’s why I find it hard to believe it will be priced so much less than what the current lightning is going for but again I think we should just agree to disagree on that one and see how the pricing turns out.
......

The reason Cybertruck will be priced much less than Ford Lightning EV is because it can.

Tesla will make a profit on each Cybertruck while Ford will lose $5K-20K on each Lightning.

Tesla is aiming to compete against full-size ICE pickups and Tesla will probably succeed just like it is doing against ICE models from BMW, Mercedes, Audi, Lexus, Acura, Infiniti, Volvo and high-end models/trims of Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Ford, GM, Subaru, Kia/Hyundai.

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Tesla’s new customers come from Toyota, Honda most frequently: study
By William Johnson Posted on November 29, 2022
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-customers-former-brands-revealed/

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Tesla Uniquely Good At Stealing Customers From Other Brands And Hanging On To Them
Just 39 percent of Teslas customers left the brand when it came time to buy another vehicle
by Sebastien Bell January 25, 2023
https://www.carscoops.com/2023/01/tesla-uniquely-good-at-stealing-customers-and-hanging-on-to-them/

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Tesla brings an end to Ford’s decade-long reign at top of customer loyalty rankings
March 1, 2023
By Riz Akhtar
https://thedriven.io/2023/03/01/tesla-brings-an-end-to-fords-decade-long-reign-at-top-of-customer-loyalty-rankings

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[firsttruck]

A $55K (was $50K at reveal) dual motor 300mi Cybertruck would take significant share of ICE full-size crew-cab 1/2-ton pickup market.

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Why, Exactly, Are Pickup Trucks So Expensive These Days?
Once humble and affordable, pickups are now among the market's most expensive vehicles. Here's why.
By Tyler Duffy Feb 14, 2022
https://www.gearpatrol.com/cars/a39049386/why-are-pickup-trucks-expensive/

.....
These days, pickup trucks cost a lot. That won't come as news to anyone who has bought (or opportunistically sold) one lately. The average full-size truck purchase price approached or even exceeded $50,000 in 2019, depending on who compiled the data. And that price has ballooned even more during the pandemic and chip shortage.

-----------------------------

 

[Ogre]

A $57K dual motor 350mi Cybertruck would take significant share of ICE full-size crew-cab 1/2-ton pickup market.

Exactly this right here.
Right now around 50% of car buyers plan on their next car being an EV.

Tesla wants to make that same thing happen with trucks. A reasonably priced Cybertruck will make truck buyers start to take electric trucks seriously.

Pricing it like a niche/ super premium truck will not accomplish that.

 

[TBONO]

The reason Cybertruck will be priced much less than Ford Lightning EV is because it can.

Tesla will make a profit on each Cybertruck while Ford will lose $5K-20K on each Lightning.

Tesla is aiming to compete against full-size ICE pickups and Tesla will probably succeed just like it is doing against ICE models from BMW, Mercedes, Audi, Lexus, Acura, Infiniti, Volvo and high-end models/trims of Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Ford, GM, Subaru, Kia/Hyundai.

----------------------------------------------------------------

Tesla’s new customers come from Toyota, Honda most frequently: study
By William Johnson Posted on November 29, 2022
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-customers-former-brands-revealed/

----------------------------------------------------------------

Tesla Uniquely Good At Stealing Customers From Other Brands And Hanging On To Them
Just 39 percent of Teslas customers left the brand when it came time to buy another vehicle
by Sebastien Bell January 25, 2023
https://www.carscoops.com/2023/01/tesla-uniquely-good-at-stealing-customers-and-hanging-on-to-them/

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Tesla brings an end to Ford’s decade-long reign at top of customer loyalty rankings
March 1, 2023
By Riz Akhtar
https://thedriven.io/2023/03/01/tesla-brings-an-end-to-fords-decade-long-reign-at-top-of-customer-loyalty-rankings

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Wow now that’s what I call a very high-quality response!
That is awesome and great perspective.

So I agree with all of it.

There is one point though that I don’t know if it’s getting the attention, it deserves. And that is all this is contingent on Tesla having SUPPLY. So if Tesla is able to make enough cars driving the demand I would agree with all this and how they would price it and its overall mission.
However, Tesla has always been constrained from a supply perspective, have always had greater demand than supply, and so though the mission to move to disrupt the market and bring affordable cars has not yet materialized as they may have underestimated how much of the high-end market is really there and how the market has expanded for EVs
For example many people spending $50,000 on the EV are coming from a $35,000 ice car and will pay the difference (as TCO makes it similar) so that market is much bigger

Until Tesla can bring it to capacity/SUPPLY to satisfy that, it will continue to focus on the higher end, as it has throughout its history.

I think this all even becomes amplified with cybertyruck, massive demand and so little supply… How can they start pricing it at the main stream level when it’ll take a while to ramp up production? As Tesla has done before, they will start on the higher end and then, quickly raise or reduce prices as per market

I do not dispute if Tesla can launch at very close to 2019 launch prices, they probably could , but I’m not sure they would. For example, why do they continue to take reservations:deposits if there’s really 1.5 million orders? they like that interest free $150M loan we fund. I’m surprised it’s not a class action lawsuit yet.

I am in the first 1400 units that will ever ship and will pay for whatever is available and whatever they offer at whatever price. I’m sure I am not alone and I imagine Tesla will not be offering me a $50,000 option : it’ll likely be in $80,000 plus option until supply builds.

Let’s see, it’s been quite a journey for us that’s far. Let’s hope the destination is rainbows and leprechauns and free refills. ?

 

[slomo]

No, the Standard Model Y is 26 kWh per 100 miles or almost 4 miles per kWh. The Long-Range AWD is 28 kWh per 100 miles, not a huge difference.

I never got that. I don't get that in my current Model Y.

 

[charliemagpie]

certainly not all of them are.

but aren’t we simultaneously elsewhere asserting that to be competitive the legacy dealership model needs thinning, streamlining, and improvement?

the worst hogs will squeal the loudest

What may be left is a legacy BEV dealership model that is thinner, streamlined, and improved. That may be the point of it all, from legacy view.

just looking for consistency of the point here. Simultaneously asserting the dealership model needs clearing out as a critique, while also critiquing as buffoonery that legacy are making moves causing dealerships to clear out, seems strangely inconsistent

The situation is in transition and it involves various factors. There would be a lot of concern and pushbacks, it is/will be a turbulent time. Easy to be judgmental.

I don't really expect its doom for all of them. There would be some good operators out there who would survive. There will always be lots areas where a distribution/service centre is needed.

But I do think if you have competitive weakness, there will be competition looking to take advantage. How this would play out over the longer term remains to be seen.

To clarify using an analogy, we've replaced both parts of Grandfather's hammer twice, but it's still considered his hammer. Similarly, the term "dealership" may persist in name only imo.

 

[firsttruck]

.....
There is one point though that I don’t know if it’s getting the attention, it deserves. And that is all this is contingent on Tesla having SUPPLY. So if Tesla is able to make enough cars driving the demand I would agree with all this and how they would price it and its overall mission.
However, Tesla has always been constrained from a supply perspective, have always had greater demand than supply, and so though the mission to move to disrupt the market and bring affordable cars has not yet materialized as they may have underestimated how much of the high-end market is really there and how the market has expanded for EVs
For example many people spending $50,000 on the EV are coming from a $35,000 ice car and will pay the difference (as TCO makes it similar) so that market is much bigger

Until Tesla can bring it to capacity/SUPPLY to satisfy that, it will continue to focus on the higher end, as it has throughout its history.

I think this all even becomes amplified with cybertyruck, massive demand and so little supply… How can they start pricing it at the main stream level when it’ll take a while to ramp up production? As Tesla has done before, they will start on the higher end and then, quickly raise or reduce prices as per market

I do not dispute if Tesla can launch at very close to 2019 launch prices, they probably could , but I’m not sure they would. For example, why do they continue to take reservations:deposits if there’s really 1.5 million orders? they like that interest free $150M loan we fund. I’m surprised it’s not a class action lawsuit yet.

I am in the first 1400 units that will ever ship and will pay for whatever is available and whatever they offer at whatever price. I’m sure I am not alone and I imagine Tesla will not be offering me a $50,000 option : it’ll likely be in $80,000 plus option until supply builds.

Let’s see, it’s been quite a journey for us that’s far. Let’s hope the destination is rainbows and leprechauns and free refills. ?

#1 there is evidence and positive track record Tesla probably has supply chain ready.
They do not waste capital until supply line is ready.
New factory that is not producing is a money furnace.

5 years ago Tesla stated their production goal and pretty much hit the goal right on the head.
5 years ago legacy GM promised tons of EVs for 2022 and GM didn't even make 10%.

Why such concern for Tesla's ability to deliver when it is legacy auto that repeatedly falls way way short of promises.

Tesla works years in advance to ensure future battery supplies even working down multiple levels all the way to the mining companies.

GM makes lots of announcements and then produced fewer than 40K EV cars & pickups in 2022 while Tesla made over 1.2 million.

Legacy auto spent millions $ for SuperBowl ads for products there were not even making.

Why did legacy auto do that? To try to stop their customers interested in EVs from abandoning the brands for competitors who were making EVs. Like trying to Osborne effect the EV transition competition.


2022 GM EVs
Cadillac (Lyriq): 122 (new)
Chevrolet (Bolt EV/EUV): 38,120 (up 54% year-over-year)
GMC (Hummer EV Pickup): 854 (up from one a year ago)
Total: 39,096 (only 1.7% share of GM's total vehicle volume of all fuel types)
* excluding an undisclosed number of BrightDrop all-electric vans

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Analysis: GM goes slow on EVs as rivals fight a price war
January 31, 2023
By Joseph White and Paul Lienert
https://www.reuters.com/business/au...s-slow-evs-rivals-fight-price-war-2023-01-31/

.....
Suppliers familiar with GM's production plans through 2025 support the notion the automaker continues to slow-walk electric vehicle investment and output while it continues to bank money from its big combustion-engine pickups and SUVs.

.....
"GM knows it needs to look like a tech company to Wall Street and prop up its stock price by talking about its EV future ... but its bread and butter remains large pickups and SUVs with V8 engines, which continue to generate most of the company’s profits," said Sam Fiorani, vice president of global vehicle forecasting at AutoForecast Solutions.

.....
GM plans to build just 170,000 EVs at its plants in the U.S., Canada and Mexico in 2023, and 285,000 in 2024, according to data gathered by AutoForecast Solutions, which expects the automaker's EV production to remain under 500,000 in 2025 - about half of its actual capacity of 1 million.

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[Gurule92]

The situation is in transition and it involves various factors. There would be a lot of concern and pushbacks, it is/will be a turbulent time. Easy to be judgmental.

I don't really expect its doom for all of them. There would be some good operators out there who would survive. There will always be lots areas where a distribution/service centre is needed.

But I do think if you have competitive weakness, there will be competition looking to take advantage. How this would play out over the longer term remains to be seen.

To clarify using an analogy, we've replaced both parts of Grandfather's hammer twice, but it's still considered his hammer. Similarly, the term "dealership" may persist in name only imo.

Ah, ship of theseus

 

[Deleted member 3316]

So you're saying the world doesn't work where you raise prices to increase margins when you are losing too much money on a product that is selling? That's an interesting worldview.

Many posters really don't understand Tesla, the mission and the business model. Who started the price war? Did they do that because they were matching their competitors? No. They set the standard. They don't follow. Everyone else had to cut into their already tiny margins (or non existent [ford]) to keep up.

Model 3 and Y both had huge demand at launch and Tesla didn't go crazy with prices. They stuck very close to announced prices. Any alterations came later. And model 3 went through production hell but still remained close to announced.

They plan prices based on long term margins. Not what the first 40k vehicles are gonna make. Volume production.

Teslas pricing has never been about achieving a certain margin… It is set by market value. Which is why it starts high then gets progressively lowered to increase demand when supply can accommodate.

It’s in the master plan. Start high then bring price down with efficiencies of scale.

The reason Tesla price is so high is because that is the market clearing price for the demand they can supply at that price.

Margin is inconsequential to the decision process for Tesla currently. Margins are merely a consequence of their pricing decisions not a driver of them. They could halve their profit margins if necessary to drive demand.

Why don’t they have lower prices? What is the issue with a long waitlist?

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