350 mile range Quad Motor rumored to be 1st trim launched

[cvalue13]

If they're not adding cells I don't see how the tri-motor, at launch, can have 500 miles of range.

ah, i see

i have no view on what range will be associated with which motor configuration

just a lightly held view that the tri will be the one with longer range

who knows what sticks from the unveil stats, but worth noting that the dual motor unveil stats were basically on par with the 2022 Lightning (bit more here, bit less there)

on that view, the rough range of production roll-out possibilities:

1. only release a tri with Lightning-crushing stats
2. only release a dual with Lightning-par stats
3. release both equally
4. "announce" both (but on the down low know that the tri is further out, and less produced)

Option 2. is really a non-starter, as the headlines would be brutal.

if there are reasons prohibiting 1. or 3., then option 4. is your success case - esp. because the headlines will be almost indistinguishable from either option 1. or 3.

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[greggertruck]

Understood. Was trying to reconcile it with this statement from @greggertruck:



If they're not adding cells I don't see how the tri-motor, at launch, can have 500 miles of range.

It’ll be more cells, but it’ll be less than thought because of density. That’s what I meant. Speculative on my part.

 

[RVAC]

It’ll be more cells, but it’ll be less than thought because of density. That’s what I meant. Speculative on my part.

That clears it up then.

on that view, the rough range of production roll-out possibilities:

1. only release a tri with Lightning-crushing stats
2. only release a dual with Lightning-par stats
3. release both equally
4. "announce" both (but on the down low know that the tri is further out, and less produced)

Option 2. is really a non-starter, as the headlines would be brutal.

if there are reasons prohibiting 1. or 3., then option 4. is your success case - esp. because the headlines will be almost indistinguishable from either option 1. or 3.

Agreed, option 4 is the one that makes most sense given the situation. The disconnect was how they were going to do it without adding cells.

 

[TyPope]

I just can't see a scenario where Elon releases the first Cybertrucks without making sure those will beat any and all competitors on range, speed, capabilities. If the Cybertruck stumbles out of the gate, it'll tumble quite a bit and drag the stock down with it.

All the anti-Elon pundits will say "Told you so, Elon. You aren't special."

Yeah, that won't happen.

Top of the line will definitely come out day one. How many is anyone's guess.

Question I'd ask is this: Will the Cybertruck just come out with dual and tri versions and then, at some later date, a quad (Plaid) version or is three motors enough? (It is but still... faster is faster)

 

[Baldey]

on that view, the rough range of production roll-out possibilities:

1. only release a tri with Lightning-crushing stats
2. only release a dual with Lightning-par stats
3. release both equally
4. "announce" both (but on the down low know that the tri is further out, and less produced)

if there are reasons prohibiting 1. or 3., then option 4. is your success case - esp. because the headlines will be almost indistinguishable from either option 1. or 3.

Agreed, option 4 is the one that makes most sense given the situation. The disconnect was how they were going to do it without adding cells.

Don't forget option 5: "announce" both, but tell everyone that higher trim orders will be prioritized for deliveries.

 

[Crissa]

Have you driven an electric vehicle? Long range.? Your response sounds very textbook theoretical and not in tune with reality.
I have over 100,000 miles driving Tesla’s and no issue in urban environments but what’s discussed here are the longer drives and where there is not a supercharger
it’s much more than an inconvenience. It makes the trip not appropriate for an electric vehicle unless you’re retired and don’t care about time and want to spend hours and hours and hours in a Podunk town. Until your car charges.

Dude, I just drove up US 395 in Oregon and there were Superchargers from CA to WA. They were there every time I came into town for groceries. Sure, my Mazda has more range - but I never, ever get even close to the range of my Mazda, and had I driven this with an electric... There's only one leg I would have worried about and that was Georgetown to Lake Almanor - and most of that is because we specifically avoided the highway and Canyonville literally burnt to the ground, not that there would be too few chargers.

In the coming years, there's no worries.

I'm in Rockaway Beach this week and there are chargers here, not that I'd need them, there's Superchargers in Tillamook.

I'm just tired of this damn exaggerating.

-Crissa

PS, you drove 100K in a Tesla? Awesome. I've been following electric car news since the 90s. My last set of snow tires were lent to a Gen 1 Leaf that drove - in the middle of the winter - from San Jose to Vancouver, BC, and into the snowy mountains.

I know how charging works. Anyone who talks about charging 'for hours' is just lying at this point. Just because I couldn't afford a Tesla way back when is no reason to think I don't know my stuff.

 

[dalton108]

Not having at least 400 miles Is a big miss considering they told us 3 motors would yield 500

Correct and if it doesn’t have that range I’m not buying. It does me no good. I need to drive out with my trailer and be able to do stuff. A trailer means 250 miles at 500 starting point. At 350, I’m going nowhere and there’s no sale. I was told that the trim that I reserved would have 500+ miles and it damn well better or there is no deal.

 

[Crissa]

Reno to Vegas - normally a 6.5 hour drive. But, if I have to stop in Tonopha to charge at the Tesla charging station across from McDonalds, add an hour. Home, I fully charge using solar; so it is free. In Vegas, the hotel has free chargers for guests. Tonopha - not free.

Next time you drive from Reno to LV, take the turnoff for Silver Peak (where the only operating lithium mine in the US is). It is before Tonopha. Right after you leave US 95, there is a sign "Next gas station 135 miles". So, not an exaggeration.

"There are very few routes without at least level 2 50a. charging in between." Get off the freeway and see the real Nevada; but no charging stations. Staying on the freeway, you would miss this:

Literally that's very few routes.

Damn, there's even a charger at the reservation where I pulled through their landfill on the way back to the highway from the malachite mine we visited.

Extraterrestrial Highway is going to be hard - even the RV parks out there are closed - but dude, that's literally the definition of few.

-Crissa

 

[dalton108]

Well you do you and I’ll do me. My tiger moth is not exactly un-aero, it’s not exactly heavy and it’s definitely not “big.” BUT, my FJ replacement is going to need to pull it and I intend to drive to the campgrounds I always go to and I expect to be able to take that trip, park and camp, without worrying about having to unhitch my trailer ON THE WAY so that I can get into one of the many charging stations that I will pass on my way to my destination.

It’s almost as if I already own two Tesla’s and know precisely what I intend to do with my third. ?

Being an experienced grown-up is so cool!

 

[dalton108]

Sorry, I saw sarcasm.

 

[dalton108]

Agree entirely, my apologies for the misapprehension and snark.

 

[RVAC]

Don't forget option 5: "announce" both, but tell everyone that higher trim orders will be prioritized for deliveries.

Not if they expect Cybertruck ramp to outpace 4680 ramp, which I think is likely.

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