Placing order for Cyberbeast today, delivery when?

[Bkb13]

this assumes they’re making 40K tri motors a year

don’t bet on that

I would absolutely bet they can deliver 120,000 tri motors over three years. The first delivered cars were tri motors.

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[cvalue13]

I would absolutely bet they can deliver 120,000 tri motors over three years. The first delivered cars were tri motors.

Looks like you’ve arrived at the *feeling* Tesla hoped you would.

But not all of the first delivered cars, which are special edition ‘Founders’ builds, were tri motors.

And nor does the trim blend of these first delivered Founders units say anything about the intended blend of the normal retail production models.


When normal retail production starts, tri-motors will be rare, for quite some time. I’d guess somewhere around 1 in 10 builds.

When it comes time for the retail configurator to open, I’d expect people to arrive at a notice of longer wait times for delivery of a tri vs a dual.

 

[Bkb13]

But not all of the first delivered cars, which are special edition ‘Founders’ builds, were tri motors.

Find one that wasn’t and let me know where that info is. I have not seen any dual motors that were delivered at the delivery event.. all test versions given to the media were Tri motor. Is this a fact of yours or an assumption of yours?

And nor does the trim blend of these first delivered Founders units say anything about the intended blend of the normal retail production models.

It may or it may not. No one, including you knows…

When normal retail production starts, tri-motors will be rare, for quite some time. I’d guess somewhere around 1 in 10 builds.

This sounds like another assumption masquerading as fact.

 

[Cyberostachu]

Hi guys if I placed my order today what would be a good guess when truck was delivered? End of 2024? Or i 2025?
Thanks guys

I'm not discouraging you but my order was 2.5 yrs ago and my expectation is the 2nd half of 2025 if I'm lucky. Maybe yours will arrive between 2027 to 2028. Hope you're lucky. Depends on production output 250,000 or 375,000 or 500,000 CT's a year beyond 2025.

 

[Cyberostachu]

Looks like you’ve arrived at the *feeling* Tesla hoped you would.

But not all of the first delivered cars, which are special edition ‘Founders’ builds, were tri motors.

And nor does the trim blend of these first delivered Founders units say anything about the intended blend of the normal retail production models.


When normal retail production starts, tri-motors will be rare, for quite some time. I’d guess somewhere around 1 in 10 builds.

When it comes time for the retail configurator to open, I’d expect people to arrive at a notice of longer wait times for delivery of a tri vs a dual.

I think you're right. I order DM and I'm stuck with it because the TM is beyond my budget by a mile. If they're building no SM and very few TM then, I'll get my DM sooner than expected unless everyone rush to the DM trim for the reason you gave.

 

[slomo]

Actually, Tesla is either planning on a lot of cancellations &/or really opening the production rate, because if you go to the order page it is claiming delivery in 2024 for the dual or tri versions.

What they mean is that the model will be delivered in volume in 2024. They don't mean that a new reservation will be delivered in 2024.

They have no idea how the huge reservation queue will translate into actual orders

 

[Cyberostachu]

It's smart for them to basically build all the same trucks minus just the rear motor...and prob only option is interior color

For the interior, is it true that the material used for the White is very easily clean? What about stains? To me the white is very elegant but I'm afraid of the Passengers not being careful.

 

[cvalue13]

It may or it may not. No one, including you knows…

I’ve heard that a lot lately

 

[davelloydbrown]

In the first 1 million or so reservations, the bulk were duel and tri motor.

Now with the increase in price and drop in range, IMO there will likely only be a 20% conversion rate and of that 10% tris (20,000 total) with the bulk being duels and singles

So if you are ordering a tri, there is a good chance you could be getting one next year as I would assume that they willl fill all the tri orders before they start the duels.

 

[Skydog]

Super exciting for sure for all the people like I put money down 2 year's ago ect ect all good but those year's really mean nothing as they were not in production like they are now and Tesla is getting faster and more efficient with there releases ? Super cool just wondering if I should keep my 2021 Ford F250 Tremor with 6.7 & 5 stg clean tune or not? First world problems for sure!!!! Never dreamed I would do this but after I bought a Plaid 6 months ago I have been just blown away with everything that car does wowowow!! I have owned two Hellcats one on E85 with 1100HP , Rs7 stg 2, BMW M5 stg 2 ect ect Tesla is on a hole new level and if you can't beat them join them!!! Hahahha o sorry Super side tracked there ? ?

 

[cvalue13]

I have not seen any dual motors that were delivered at the delivery event.

yeah? What *have* you found?

strange how it’s hard to know from the peanut gallery, because the live stream video of people taking deliveries conveniently and expertly avoided ever filming the tailgate area of a single delivery vehicle

That’s for the delivery vehicles that were done on-screen.

there were *other* delivery vehicles, not delivered on screen.

Have you surveyed those, too? ??

all test versions given to the media were Tri motor.

an OEM provided media with their top trim to review!?

Couldn’t be so…

It may or it may not. No one, including you knows…

no one knows Tesla’s current build blend plans for the next 4 Q’s?

that’s troubling to hear!

when do you think Tesla will get around to thinking about these sorts of questions? or do they just sort of wing it each day?


On second thought. How do *you* know that nobody knows?

You’re gonna make me have to re-read my epistemology books to sort out this paradox.

This sounds like another assumption masquerading as fact.

oh, there are lots of assumptions built into my statements.

because the world is a complex place, and things/facts can change into the future.


the more relevant question is whether the assumptions are reasonably and sufficiently based on underlying information supporting the assumptions.

for example, *your* operative assumption in this chat is that no one in the world knows more than *you* - now that’s an example of an assumption that’s not reasonably or sufficiently based on underlying supporting info.

 

[WormtownKris]

I suppose you are correct, however, if you go to order any other Tesla vehicle, the website also gives you a date range for delivery. By your argument that wouldn’t apply to that vehicle either but one would certainly infer that it does.

This is really apples and oranges. None of the other currently produced vehicles in Tesla's portfolio has a 7-figure backlog. They know how many S/3/X/Ys they produce in a week/month. They ~know how many of each are ordered, and so they know how long it takes to deliver one of those. With the CT, they don't know how many reservations will immediately convert, they don't know which version each reservation will order, and they ~don't know how quickly production will ramp.
So S/E/X/Y reservations do have a known range for delivery. CTs do not- at least very accurately.

 

[lowtek]

Short answer ... Tesla doesn't know ... it will take a while for them to work all the bugs out of the lines ...

 

[CyberBeastRN]

Thanks guy's actually works out good for me! Need more super chargers where I plan on using truck for towing my toy's! In the mean time I will keep loving my Plaid!!! ??

May want to watch YouTube videos of my CyberBeast pulling a 5700lb travel trailer - not sure what toys you’re planning on towing @DblCapCrimpin on X and YouTube

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