Will the Jan-March 2024 delivery window be honored?

[Cyber07]

As I am watching all the comments and all the VIN updates I believe there are significant number of orders have been confirmed.

Tesla is sending invitation in 2024 for the 1128xxx reservation holders I have started to doubt that they can deliver in the promised timeline for all those confirmation as they still promising the Jan-March timeframe which is clearly impossible!

In my opponion they are just using these order comfirmation as data collection and they really not committed for this timeline.

As we have, effectivelly ZERO VIN number confirmation from the Dec 9 invitation batch it just make it impossible for me to believe that they can deliver in this promised January-March timeframe.

I think Tesla just playing with us with their usual promise game. All these promised timelines can easily slip by 6+ months.

How upset you will be if this is the case?

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[MyKidCouldDrawThat]

Judging by how Tesla has handled everything up to this point... They will not handle this aspect well either.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

As I am watching all the comments and all the VIN updates I believe there are significant number of orders have been confirmed.

Tesla is sending invitation in 2024 for the 1128xxx reservation holders I have started to doubt that they can deliver in the promised timeline for all those confirmation as they still promising the Jan-March timeframe which is clearly impossible!

In my opponion they are just using these order comfirmation as data collection and they really not committed for this timeline.

As we have, effectivelly ZERO VIN number confirmation from the Dec 9 invitation batch it just make it impossible for me to believe that they can deliver in this promised January-March timeframe.

I think Tesla just playing with us with their usual promise game. All these promised timelines can easily slip by 6+ months.

How upset you will be if this is the case?

Estimated timeframe is more likely the case, but at least so far there is no reason to believe that they cannot meet that estimate. If they cannot they will change the timeframe. Everyone does it. Amazon routinely ‘promises’ me a delivery and then changes it, pretending that it was always the later date…like I am some kind of idiot that doesn’t take screen shots.

 

[Cyber07]

Estimated timeframe is more likely the case, but at least so far there is no reason to believe that they cannot meet that estimate. If they cannot they will change the timeframe. Everyone does it. Amazon routinely ‘promises’ me a delivery and then changes it, pretending that it was always the later date…like I am some kind of idiot that doesn’t take screen shots.

My reason is for not to believe them that we have passed a month and they still have not provided a VIN. Even if they provide every single Dec 9 confirming order a VIN tomorrow it will be sketchy to deliver them in January anything. Hence, the January as a month for delivery is just not there anymore.

 

[cvalue13]

My reason is for not to believe them that we have passed a month and they still have not provided a VIN. Even if they provide every single Dec 9 confirming order a VIN tomorrow it will be sketchy to deliver them in January anything. Hence, the January as a month for delivery is just not there anymore.

I’m not sure that I’m understanding the core of your question

Tesla did make deliveries in December - just not to people in this forum

they’ll definitely make deliveries in each of Jan-March


if instead what you're asking is: will there be *ar t least one* person who ordered on Dec 8 who *doesn’t* get their delivery by the final day of March?

that’s entirely possible

afterall, Tesla is ramping and so only using their then-best projection about how many trucks they can build AND delivery by the last day of March

such estimate being why the invite emails stated “estimated delivery Dec 2024 through March 2024”


but, point taken that Tesla is known for having optimistic timing estimates ?

collectively, why I think “will delivery window be honored” suggests some may have been unwise to gloss over what it really was: a Tesla estimate

 

[Cyber07]

I’m not sure that I’m understanding the core of your question

Tesla did make deliveries in December - just not to people in this forum

they’ll definitely make deliveries in each of Jan-March


if instead what you're asking is: will there be *ar t least one* person who ordered on Dec 8 who *doesn’t* get their delivery by the final day of March?

that’s entirely possible

afterall, Tesla is ramping and so only using their then-best projection about how many trucks they can build AND delivery by the last day of March

such estimate being why the invite emails stated “estimated delivery Dec 2024 through March 2024”


but, point taken that Tesla is known for having optimistic timing estimates ?

collectively, why I think “will delivery window be honored” suggests some may have been unwise to gloss over what it really was: a Tesla estimate

I agree that yours might be a better framing by pointing out an aggressively optimistic, (maybe better say unrealistic) estimate, as usual, from Tesla and people just be prepared for that.

 

[cvalue13]

I agree that yours might be a better framing by pointing out an aggressively optimistic, (maybe better say unrealistic) estimate, as usual, from Tesla and people just be prepared for that.

On the other hand, don’t be too down just yet

Tesla essentially hasn’t started deliveries to *real* customers.

the pace of that could be relatively** quick once it starts

**I mean, if you think 10,000 people ordered on Dec 8 it might not seem quick, but if you more realistically think Eg 300 people ordered on Dec 8, it could

 

[Cyber07]

On the other hand, too be too down just yet

Tesla essentially hasn’t started deliveries to *real* customers.

the pace of that could be relatively** quick once it starts

**I mean, if you think 10,000 people ordered on Dec 8 it might not seem quick, but if you more realistically think Eg 300 people ordered on Dec 8, it could

If we are in that topic.
1. How many people do you believe have confirmed their reservation as an order until today (they still promising the Jan-March timeline)?
2. How many cars will they produce until March 20? (So they can deliver it customers by end of March)
3. What is the delta between the first two numbers? (E.g. how unrealistic of their estimate?)

 

[SanJoseNinjya]

I thought Tesla is a bit different from other traditional car manufactures. more transparent more honest and reliable. They do not have any unreliable sales rep, but their communication has been terrible. OK, maybe this is the Tesla way, but hope they can do much better job for over $120K product purchase process. and of course they can not ship existing orders by the end of Q1. maybe 400-500 CTs with the current yield. Recently they changed the spec of 4680, and might be causing further delay. nobody knows, but its not producing as Elon expected for sure.

 

[Celiboy]

I’m just happy to be getting a truck. Whether it’s in Jan - March or a later date. I know I’ll have one. There are plenty of people who would love to have gotten out of the reservation line and into the delivery line who wouldn’t care if the delivery window was missed. Perspective keeps me patient.

 

[Cyber07]

I got that context matter.

I am just curious how many people are actually believing that they will get the truck in the timeframe as promised.

 

[cvalue13]

they still promising the Jan-March timeline

what’s the most recent order screenshots of the, therefore, most recent stated delivery estimate being given?

I’ve seen only a few folks say they’ve received recent invites and ordered, but don’t recall any of late either saying or showing the est delivery language more recently.

If we are in that topic.
1. How many people do you believe have confirmed their reservation as an order until today (they still promising the Jan-March timeline)?
2. How many cars will they produce until March 20? (So they can deliver it customers by end of March)
3. What is the delta between the first two numbers? (E.g. how unrealistic of their estimate?)

very back of napkin for obvious reasons, but to scope directionslity

1. How many people do you believe have confirmed their reservation as an order until today (they still promising the Jan-March timeline)?

Order tracking thread here is to 700 total orders, 2/3 of which are AWD, or 462

I have reason to believe that’s actually a higher sample % of global orders than one might believe

but let’s for present purposes just assume (1) Tesla is as of eg this week still saying Jan-March for AWD, and (2) 460 people have ordered (bare with me)

As if Dec 31, Tesla had completed build of ~350 trucks, ~325 of which were AWD

~30 of those went to delivery event folks, 20 were showroom units, and let’s say another 50 have before Dec 31 gone to other employees/VIPs - for a total of 100 delivered to date, and 225 at GFTX etc to-be-delivered still

this 224 AWD in stock would mean that of the 462 AWD on this site‘s order list, ~1/2 of their trucks are already built

leaving another 225 needing to be built. If this week Tesla we’re building 50/day, those will be done by end of this work week (not counting weekends).

if our sites order list reflected only 1/4 of all orders, it would mean that if Tesla kept making only 50/day during only workdays through all of January those would all be built.

if this sites order list were only 1/8th, all built by end of February - still assuming Tesla’s ramp flatlines at 50/workday


2. How many cars will they produce until March 20? (So they can deliver it customers by end of March)

Let’s assume this week they’re at 50/workdayday, next week at 75/workday, and each week tick up by increments of 25

Wk 1: 50/ = 250
Wk 2: 75/ = 375
Wk 3: 100/ = 500
Wk 4: 125/ = 620
Wk 5: 150/ = 750
Wk 6: 175/ = 875
Wk 7: 200/ = 1000
Wk 8: 225/ = 1,125
Wk 9: 250/ = 1,250
Wk 10: 275/ = 1,375
Wk 11: 300/ = 1,500
Wk of March 20: 325/ = 1,625

Total built&delivered by end of March (incld the 225 from in 2023) : 11,500

Now,on one hand our begging ramp assumption of 50/day might be high, but in the other hand we assumed only a linear ramp (should be a slight exponential), only 5 days/week building (should be 7), etc.


If there have been 11,400 AWD orders to date, it would mean this site’s AWD order thread is only 4% of all AWD orders - which seems an absurdly low figure.


3. What is the delta between the first two numbers? (E.g. how unrealistic of their estimate?)


Unrealistic to me, or to Tesla?

I would be pleasantly shocked if they built 11K in Q1. I’d think half of that would be a success.

Which would still mean that this site’s order sheet is only 8% of all existing orders - which would also be surprisingly low number to me.



all of this just back of napkin for directionality. None suggesting these are actual figures.

instead just showing that some seemingly reasonable numbers plugged in result in some equally reasonable outcomes.

enough to say, at the end of the day, it’s not yet clear to me that they can’t reasonably (if optimistically) expect to build by March 20 the AWD order’s they’ve received to date.

I don’t think there are near as many total orders as folks might assume. And I think they’ve to present built more, and they’re presently building more, than we’re yet seeing be delivered.

Seems they’re holding fire, and maybe until they see the whites of the eyes.

put differently, finger in wind, I think they might build ~5,000 AWD in Q1 and it would be a win, and I think a LOT fewer than 5,000 AWD orders have been placed to date.

 

[CyberFitch]

Well after reading these post I can say with a high degree of certainty that no one in this group handled the pric teas very well

 

[fdon1]

if they do cool, if not cool. We've waited at least 4 years so a few more months wont matter for me.

 

[Carmino]

Realistically, I have little hope that my Dec-March delivery window will actually happen. However, I would truly love being wrong!

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