Only limited edition $99k/$120k Foundation Series Cybertruck’s for 2024?

[seanocono]

I don't expect them to produce 100,000 in 2024.

My rough math is:

2 million pre-orders.
Only 50% choose to proceed with the purchase at all in the next 2-3 years due to price increase.
1,000,000 potential orders, 25% of those will still be RWD, which doesn't arrive until 2025.
This leaves 750,000 potential orders for 2024.
5% seems like a good FS take rate, which comes to 37,500 FS orders in 2024.
37500 units in 2024 is attainable with ease, meaning i believe production rate outpaces FS demand by the end of summer and therefore, regular units will be sold around this time. With every day that passes in 2024, even potential FS buyers might be more inclined to wait.

We shall see who is correct.

This is a well thought out argument. I appreciate your perspective even if I think production will not meet demand for some time. As you said, we shall see. Regardless, it’s going to be an interesting ride.

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[seanocono]

In the earnings call they said demand is off the hook. In fact they supposedly pondered raising the price. Yet some here think Tesla is going to reduce the price (by selling non FS). Does that make any sense ? They are literally saying we have no reason to sell cheap at this time.

I agree. I don’t see any incentive for Tesla to stop selling FS trucks anytime soon. If demand exceeds production, why would they lower the price by discontinuing the FS?

 

[Coltpete]

Tell me you've never tried to buy an extremely in demand vehicle at sticker without telling me. Try buying a gt3 or z06 right now. The dealer markup for "market adjustment" will make you blush. Porsche has been known to tack on well over $50k or require you to buy another car first. Hell, Kia was charging an extra $3-10k for the telluride in California.

This forum is overridden with babies. Car manufacturers only exist because they make money and recoup large investment costs. Elon likely wanted this priced at sticker or lower but the MBAs that work at Tesla know better.

 

[steezymcfresh]

I don't get the adamant defenders of FS. Are you speaking as a shareholder, fanboy, or what? It's not unreasonable for the earliest reservation holders to want to pay the asking price of the car and not have to wait an extra year to do so. The FS roadmap is purposefully unclear probably because Tesla doesn't know how long people will be willing pay the uncharge. If they knew the level of demand, they could just price the CT accordingly and gradually drop it.

My disappointment in Tesla will be measured by how long they keep up the FS. A full year of markup is super disappointing.

 

[Coltpete]

I don't get the adamant defenders of FS. Are you speaking as a shareholder, fanboy, or what? It's not unreasonable for the earliest reservation holders to want to pay the asking price of the car and not have to wait an extra year to do so. The FS roadmap is purposefully unclear probably because Tesla doesn't know how long people will be willing pay the uncharge. If they knew the level of demand, they could just price the CT accordingly and gradually drop it.

My disappointment in Tesla will be measured by how long they keep up the FS. A full year of markup is super disappointing.

I'm not sure if this was referring to me but I'll answer. I'm not a shareholder or a tesla owner. I like Elon and what he's doing for the planet. I'm extremely excited about the CT and like you have been waiting since they announced it for one.

I think everyone would have preferred the original pricing or even the not FS pricing. But dealer markups for very in demand cars are an industry standard. It's a unique opportunity for a manufacture to capitalize on hype and demand that significantly outpaces production. It is literally the economic concept of price elasticity and demand. So unfortunately it's a smart move by Tesla.

I'm not sure if that is defending anything or not but hopefully that explains why they are doing this. Not to mention in this extremely particular case with the CT they absolutely need FSD bundled with the truck because they have no data yet to calibrate FSD for the CT. In other words they need to make sure as many early CTs as possible have FSD. And how do you do that? By requiring it and marking the truck up.

Tesla does not care about your or my feelings or ability to afford this truck during the first year. They care only about profit and getting FSD worked out on this new application.

 

[CyberTW]

this is the only rational interpretation, especially given what I know separately

Put differently, here’s the point:

“we sent out [5,000] invites for these trucks priced at a $20K premium, and got [X]% uptake; based on that, when we next send out [30,000] invites, at MSRP, we expect a 2[X]% uptake, which very quickly means we’re sold out for 2024 deliveries”

anyone thinking otherwise is off base

Voice of reason. Thanks!

 

[steezymcfresh]

@Coltpete - not directed at you as I was talking generally as I've been seeing some fanboyish defense of FS all over Reddit, X, etc. Understanding Tesla's logic is one thing but cheering them on while they take advantage of the hype is kinda cringe to me.

 

[CyberTW]

I agree. I don’t see any incentive for Tesla to stop selling FS trucks anytime soon. If demand exceeds production, why would they lower the price by discontinuing the FS?

I also wonder if they would just switch on a dime to the non FS… don’t seem like they would do that.. then again, i got my MY after a overnight 15k drop, so what do I know ??

 

[CyberTW]

@Coltpete - not directed at you as I was talking generally as I've been seeing some fanboyish defense of FS all over Reddit, X, etc. Understanding Tesla's logic is one thing but cheering them on while they take advantage of the hype is kinda cringe to me.

I would agree with this.. but i would also add for every fanboy, there is an equal and opposite childish meltdown how some car company hurt their feelings and created severe “disappointment”
- this is not directed at you btw.. but in general, some of the childish reactions are even worse than cringe fanboys.. just my opinion

 

[PilotPete]

The bait and switch after now 5-6 years of waiting post deposits is not fair and poor corp governance

Bait and switch? Huh??? First, it was 4 years and a couple days between the announcement and the first deliveries. If you ordered first day, you'll probably have a chance before the 5th year. Second, did you hear the earnings call comment? They could be selling them for MUCH more, but "it doesn't feel right". Look, you're free not to buy one. There is no bait and switch. And if you reserved anything other than tri, you're getting more of everything for a few more inflated dollars.
If you think it costs 2x more and only half the range, you might want to look into some remedial math classes.

for now this is a toy for the rich.

No, it's a technology demonstrator and a possible disruptor to the entire industry with the new features it has. The Lucid Sapphire and the Porsche Taycan Turbo S are toys for the rich. And on top of that, who cares. Tesla said they COULD charge even more, but they aren't going to. There are a ton of cars I would love to drive, but can't afford them. Oh well! I don't complain that they're "toys for the rich", I just work harder to see if I can afford them.

Yes, and many people who preordered tri motor in 2019 are switching to AWD because the only benefit is now 0-60 time. This tired argument has very little meaning. There would be a lot more tri motors selling if they had delivered on the 500 miles of range without the extender, even at 120k.

I know right? If only they had delivered, there wouldn't be all those CBs sitting around unsold. They could have sold them all.

Oh wait, they ARE selling every one that they make, and for quite some time to come. Are they going to appeal to every buyer in the truck world? Nope. Are they going to appeal to enough of them to make a dollar or two. Yep. Does everyone NEED a 500 mile EPA range truck (even in the cold while towing), nope. Do some? Yep. And one day they will deliver it.

The CB has more going for it than just the 0-60 time. I've said it before. But if that is all you can see, then don't get a CB. That's pretty easy.

 

[MetalBonsai]

Elon and co. have repeatedly said for the last couple of years that the CyberTruck would initially cost more than they originally planned in 2019. People seem to be selectively remembering this.

The price will eventually come back down, just like literally every new model Tesla has released over the years.

I was curious.

-. . ...- . .-. ....... --. --- .. -. --. ....... - --- ....... --. .. ...- . ....... -.-- --- ..- ....... ..- .--. .-.-.- ....... -. . ...- . .-. ....... --. --- .. -. --. ....... - --- ....... .-.. . - ....... -.-- --- ..- ....... -.. --- .-- -. .-.-.-

Well played sir. Well played.

 

[steezymcfresh]

I would agree with this.. but i would also add for every fanboy, there is an equal and opposite childish meltdown how some car company hurt their feelings and created severe “disappointment”
- this is not directed at you btw.. but in general, some of the childish reactions are even worse than cringe fanboys.. just my opinion

Ha, yeah. I can't stand the folks who won't shut up about the specs not meeting their expectations but I don't think "disappointment" is cringe. That's the best way to describe my feelings about how Foundation Series is turning out. I'm not mad. I get it. I'm just disappointed. As someone who was in the first batch of FS invites but will continue to hold out for a standard order, the 2024 rumor is a bullet to my non-HFS emotions.

 

[CyberTW]

Ha, yeah. I can't stand the folks who won't shut up about the specs not meeting their expectations but I don't think "disappointment" is cringe. That's the best way to describe my feelings about how Foundation Series is turning out. I'm not mad. I get it. I'm just disappointed. As someone who was in the first batch of FS invites but will continue to hold out for a standard order, the 2024 rumor is a bullet to my non-HFS emotions.

Ya i put “disappointment” in quotes because disappointment is fine, but one poster stated this was the biggest disappointment in his life… i mean come on! Haha
I am disappointed they didn’t hit 500, but i got over that when many smart people on here basically said it wasn’t going to happen (physics, financial, etc)… but i am still fricking excited! Unfortunately, i am late to the game from all you OGs and don’t expect my truck till 2026 ???

 

[Broski]

Bait and switch? Huh??? First, it was 4 years and a couple days between the announcement and the first deliveries. If you ordered first day, you'll probably have a chance before the 5th year. Second, did you hear the earnings call comment? They could be selling them for MUCH more, but "it doesn't feel right". Look, you're free not to buy one. There is no bait and switch. And if you reserved anything other than tri, you're getting more of everything for a few more inflated dollars.

If you think it costs 2x more and only half the range, you might want to look into some remedial math classes.


No, it's a technology demonstrator and a possible disruptor to the entire industry with the new features it has. The Lucid Sapphire and the Porsche Taycan Turbo S are toys for the rich. And on top of that, who cares. Tesla said they COULD charge even more, but they aren't going to. There are a ton of cars I would love to drive, but can't afford them. Oh well! I don't complain that they're "toys for the rich", I just work harder to see if I can afford them.

I know right? If only they had delivered, there wouldn't be all those CBs sitting around unsold. They could have sold them all.

Oh wait, they ARE selling every one that they make, and for quite some time to come. Are they going to appeal to every buyer in the truck world? Nope. Are they going to appeal to enough of them to make a dollar or two. Yep. Does everyone NEED a 500 mile EPA range truck (even in the cold while towing), nope. Do some? Yep. And one day they will deliver it.

The CB has more going for it than just the 0-60 time. I've said it before. But if that is all you can see, then don't get a CB. That's pretty easy.

Yes, five years to six years I placed my order within 30 seconds of being able to on lunch night. I have yet to receive the invitation to configure so for me it’s looking like five years and I imagine six years or more for many let alone anywhere close to the price point originally promised. Look up bait and switch if you don’t understand the concept

and no you are not getting more of everything you’re getting less range and more cost. These are the items that the majority of the buyers want I’m sure many would trade 2.60 to 60 times steer by wire four wheel steering and all the other cool stuff for the original promised range and price.

 

[DumpsterFire]

Ya i put “disappointment” in quotes because disappointment is fine, but one poster stated this was the biggest disappointment in his life… i mean come on! Haha
I am disappointed they didn’t hit 500, but i got over that when many smart people on here basically said it wasn’t going to happen (physics, financial, etc)… but i am still fricking excited! Unfortunately, i am late to the game from all you OGs and don’t expect my truck till 2026 ???

Hmmmm. I wonder who that was…?

I got my hand slapped by the mods for calling him out again btw. I promise to be better, mods! Much love to y’all!! ?

Also super excited for the CT! That being said I also understand some disappointment from those hoping for better. I think Tesla has done the best they could with what was available to them right now to get the truck out.

Theyll just keep getting better and better like all models as they go forward. Cheers!!

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