FS is closed, prove me wrong

[seadsmoney]

Does anyone have any evidence FS invitations were ever being sent out in a linear fashion?

Because this is what I see (from Invites tracker thread):

Seems like one wave, 12/8-9, with each subsequent mini-wave (or promotion) merely filling out nonstarters from the previous.

Multiply by 13 (only 1 in 13 invitees submit in thread above) and we get:

(as of 2/14)

Meanwhile, ~33-unit daily production rate also seems to match what 66 days seems to have produced so far, roughly 2200 units. So hopefully yesterday's 70 was an attempt at a double.

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[mark555055c]

Closed? Who knows. People have gotten invites as recently as this week. Who knows how wide that distribution was though.

 

[Celiboy]

Does anyone have any evidence FS invitations are still continuing to be sent out in a linear fashion?

Because this is what I see (from Cybertruck OWNERS Registry List & Stats [Add Yours]! ?):

Seems like one wave, 12/8-9, with each subsequent mini-wave (or promotion) merely filling out nonstarters from the previous.

Multiply by 13 (only 1 in 13 orderers submit in thread above) and we get:

which corresponds to ~33-unit daily production rate, which over 66 days is roughly 2200 units, a total which is somewhat corroborated by VIN spotters and such.

I think that’s a difficult question to answer or prove with evidence unless you work for Tesla and have been told FS invites are done. We can only know what people post as far as receiving an invite and this forum is only one of a number of places someone can share that information, if they share at all.

 

[Gurule92]

Every time I think they're done they send out more. Getting pretty close to giving up ngl. Trying to decide what that means. Buy FS? or another vehicle?

 

[sylvius]

There are those on the forum who got an invite and didn’t configure/order. Do they still have the opportunity to configure in app?

 

[Ward L]

Your 15,574 order count devided by 33/day is more than a year’s worth of production. Sure, all the numbers are wrong, but they likely have plenty of orders to keep them busy and no need to send out a bunch of invitations to order. I bought a FSCT so I would have a chance to get it this year. Now I wonder if I will get it this year.

 

[XCeilidhX]

There are those on the forum who got an invite and didn’t configure/order. Do they still have the opportunity to configure in app?

Yes. I can still configure a FS but I’m waiting for non-FS orders to open and may sit back a bit even then depending on what the ordering options are and if it looks like a battery chemistry change is imminent at the time of my potential order. Trying to be patient but (not so) secretly I want my CB and check for a regular production order each day first thing when i wake up. So far that FS configuration page is there every day.

FWIW

Cheers

 

[seadsmoney]

this forum is only one of a number of places someone can share that information, if they share at all.

na, we can assume the level of interest in finding this forum and submitting the form to that thread is constant. There's nothing that would cause that rate to decrease with each new FS order. Therefore the data in that thread is fine for estimation.

 

[Dusty]

There are those on the forum who got an invite and didn’t configure/order. Do they still have the opportunity to configure in app?

Yup. Was just looking at it over breakfast.

 

[sylvius]

Yes. I can still configure a FS but I’m waiting for non-FS orders to open and may sit back a bit even then depending on what the ordering options are and if it looks like a battery chemistry change is imminent at the time of my potential order. Trying to be patient but (not so) secretly I want my CB and check for a regular production order each day first thing when i wake up. So far that FS configuration page is there every day.

FWIW

Cheers

So clearly FS orders aren’t closed yet. It could be that they are near closure but not there yet. Or they could continue until they have excess supply. Who knows.

 

[seadsmoney]

Your 15,574 order count devided by 33/day is more than a year’s worth of production. Sure, all the numbers are wrong, but they likely have plenty of orders to keep them busy and no need to send out a bunch of invitations to order. I bought a FSCT so I would have a chance to get it this year. Now I wonder if I will get it this year.

rate will double 2 times over the next year. hopefully it already has doubled! All FS orders will be filled by Summer if the double rate is constant, which it probably isn't, so probably Fall.

 

[seadsmoney]

So clearly FS orders aren’t closed yet.

I didn't say orders were closed, I said invitations were dying off at a rate commensurate with attrition. FS production is capped.

 

[Cybertruck2024]

Yup. Was just looking at it over breakfast.
[/shoeing!

I guess this proves OP wrong? New FS orders can still happen as of today, someone on here can do it. If OP means FS invites have ended, I guess we'll have to wait and see if any more go out.

Once the option to order the FS disappears for those already invited who didn't act, then FS orders are closed. This may be semantics, but if the FS take rate is 30% (my BS number), there could be triple the FS orders tomorrow. Let's say Tesla updates their website to say new CT deliveries are 2025 for non-FS, this could theoretically be the last lever to get people on the FS fence to jump in and take rate could see some sort of spike.

 

[Gurule92]

There are those on the forum who got an invite and didn’t configure/order. Do they still have the opportunity to configure in app?

Yes we do

 

[Gigahorse]

Considering they are still sending out Foundation Series "invites"

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