VINs Pending Delivery Chart & National Map 🗺️

[cgladue]

Can you give us the ability to pick a range of dates? I've been quite curious to see exactly that information, but filtering all orders prior to to 1/10 as an example. Would also be helpful to include/omit beast.

@agordon117 Ask and you shall receive:

https://www.cybertruck.vin/order

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[agordon117]

@agordon117 Ask and you shall receive:

https://www.cybertruck.vin/order

Nice work!

I'm gonna go ahead and say that march 31st is not happening, lol. With beast above, without below.

If you combine this with my 1:8 reporting assumption, this says there are 3712 AWD orders that still do not have vins from 12/8-1/10, and were told january-march delivery. They are currently running at a rate of about 1700 trucks per month, and only have been running that many since 2/29. This means if they stopped going out of order, and continue at the current production rate, it would take 65 days from today to assign vin numbers to all of the outstanding Jan-Mar promised orders. Plus avg 17 days vin to delivery.

Even if we assume absolute best case of 10 days vin to delivery, there would need to be 310 trucks in the outbound lot per day to fulfill the outstanding AWD orders that were promised Jan-Mar.

And like, this is all best case math. We've seen a 2/20 order get a vin assigned in cali, so we know they are going way outside of the sample range that I've picked.


And, sure, linear production rate is not going to turn out to be correct, but the amount they would have to ramp to fill these orders by march 31st, we'd be seeing 500 trucks in outbound per day towards the end of the possible march delivery window (3/14 for most states, 3/20 for some), which is a run rate that they are not projecting reaching until next year.

Looks like my pessimism about march delivery was not unfounded. Even if tomorrow, they doubled the trucks that leave the factory per day from my guess of 57 to 114, it would still take 32 days to assign vin numbers to these orders, plus 17 days vin to delivery. We'll be lucky if we all have trucks before May for Jan 10 and earlier orders

 

[cgladue]

Nice work!

I'm gonna go ahead and say that march 31st is not happening, lol. With beast above, without below.

If you combine this with my 1:8 reporting assumption, this says there are 3712 AWD orders that still do not have vins from 12/8-1/10, and were told january-march delivery. They are currently running at a rate of about 1700 trucks per month, and only have been running that many since 2/29. This means if they stopped going out of order, and continue at the current production rate, it would take 65 days from today to assign vin numbers to all of the outstanding Jan-Mar promised orders. Plus avg 17 days vin to delivery.

Even if we assume absolute best case of 10 days vin to delivery, there would need to be 310 trucks in the outbound lot per day to fulfill the outstanding AWD orders that were promised Jan-Mar.

And like, this is all best case math. We've seen a 2/20 order get a vin assigned in cali, so we know they are going way outside of the sample range that I've picked.


And, sure, linear production rate is not going to turn out to be correct, but the amount they would have to ramp to fill these orders by march 31st, we'd be seeing 500 trucks in outbound per day towards the end of the possible march delivery window (3/14 for most states, 3/20 for some), which is a run rate that they are not projecting reaching until next year.

Looks like my pessimism about march delivery was not unfounded. Even if tomorrow, they doubled the trucks that leave the factory per day from my guess of 57 to 114, it would still take 32 days to assign vin numbers to these orders, plus 17 days vin to delivery. We'll be lucky if we all have trucks before May for Jan 10 and earlier orders

thanks for ruining the rest of my month not like i didnt expect it .. i honestly think its gonna be exactly like the model 3 ramp (best case) and ill be waiting till june for my truck. when it should of been here this month.

 

[cgladue]

@cybercoffee
@Eddyrelik
@SamRN007

Good luck with delivery today !

 

[agordon117]

thanks for ruining the rest of my month not like i didnt expect it .. i honestly think its gonna be exactly like the model 3 ramp (best case) and ill be waiting till june for my truck. when it should of been here this month.

Yep, this went directly into "things I don't want to know". Each passing day the value of the foundation series decreases. Early delivery is worth significantly less if it's this late

 

[Alan]

Even if we assume absolute best case of 10 days vin to delivery, there would need to be 310 trucks in the outbound lot per day to fulfill the outstanding AWD orders that were promised Jan-Mar.

People need to quit trying to stir things up. Nothing was promised it was estimated. I’d rather they turn out a good truck not a quick truck.

 

[glukhovs]

1) 11287.
2) 3/6/2024.
3) no vin date
4) no delivery date
5) TN

 

[baked]

1) RN11277
2) 12/10/2023
3) no vin date
4) no delivery date
5) NJ

 

[kburns]

1) RN11277
2) 12/08/2023
3) 03/08/2024
4) unknown
5) CA

Cyberbeast

 

[Dazajj]

CA is the fastest state for deliveries, they blasting through reservations compared to everywhere else, even Texas lol

Can’t believe how Tesla is letting CA people skip the fuck out of all of us who ordered on 12/15… SMFH

 

[djobleezy]

1) RN11284
2) 1/18/2024
3) Unknown
4) Unknown
5) CA

AWD

 

[Kiplewis]

1) RN11283
2) 01/13/2024
3) no vin date
4) no delivery date
5) UT

 

[cgladue]

1) RN11277
2) 12/08/2023
3) 03/08/2024
4) unknown
5) CA

Cyberbeast

Nice, Another BEAST

 

[cgladue]

@agordon117

Added status pie chart to state detail view, so can see an entire state's order breakdown

 

[agordon117]

@agordon117

Added status pie chart to state detail view, so can see an entire state's order breakdown

awesome

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