Elon cleaning out inventory

[Griswold]

Why would sales of Cybertrucks to SpaceX be anything but good news for investors, owners and prospective buyers? It shows the Cybertruck is not going away. More Cybertrucks on the road equals more economies of scale and more parts support as they age.

Your negative perspective seems forced.



Even the longest running vehicle in automotive history, the VW Beetle, was cancelled. All vehicles get cancelled eventually.

But I will point out one of your errors is assuming the Cybertruck is a low volume vehicle. The two year sales of approximately 70K amounts to average annual sales of 35K, which is almost the average volume of all vehicles in the US.

In 2023, there were 388 distinct light-duty vehicle models available for sale in the U.S. market. The total annual light vehicle sales volume in the U.S. was 15,608,386 units. The average annual production volume per model for the U.S. market is approximately 40,228 units.

I'm not saying Cybertruck sales don't have room to grow beyond 35K/year but, even if Cybertruck sales remain flat from the first two years, it will be close to an average sales volume for all vehicles in the US. But the normal trend for new vehicle platforms is for sales volume to gradually grow from initial volumes to a peak several years later, followed by a plateau and then a long slow decline. Considering the Cybertruck's relatively high price point, it's actually a high-volume vehicle. It's quite rare for vehicles starting at $80K to sell in volumes this high.

It seems to me the Cybertruck naysayers are heavily over-represented by those who have little to no first-hand experience, ie. never used one daily for even a week. Are you, by any chance, in this category? It's very difficult to understand what sets the Cybertruck apart from other trucks in the same price category until you actually put it to work.

I wasn't saying it was bad news. I was trying to speculate who I was replying to that said it was bad news.

I'm calling it a low volume vehicle because it certainly isn't a high volume vehicle. Maybe medium volume? Lol. The recent numbers aren't painting a strong case.

Yes I own one as a family truckster.

Sponsored

 

[CyberGus]

what the fuck are we gonna do with all these limes?

When life hands you limes, make margaritas

 

[Cactusrick]

He is just turning lemon into lemonade...I'm not saying the Truck is a lemon I love my FSCB..I've been a truck guy all my life since the late 60's...People do not understand the ability of the Truck...it's so versatile... I think Elon had over a million pre-orders and many did not , because of price, follow through with the orders...so for now, that old 2024 inventory becomes a plus for stock holders especially if $TSLA buys stock in XAi .. The media bashes it more than other manufactures rumors of burning up, and can't tow etc, all the false BS is hard for the average Joe to "get It" they just need to drive it for a few hours to understand.

 

[HaulingAss]

I wasn't saying it was bad news.

OK, I guess it just sounded like that.

Yes I own one as a family truckster.

Congrats! Welcome to the Cybertruck family! Have you put it to work yet? You know, hauling tools/materials, towing trailers, etc? That's when it really comes into it's element relative to other trucks in the same 1/2 ton class (besides all the tech and driving dynamics advantages).

 

[sys700]

In my world, a "homer" is a good thing!

Tesla doesn't disclose sales numbers by individual models so any global sales figures are just an educated guess. The auto industry/media has a consistent anti-Tesla bias so I naturally take the numbers they publish with a grain of salt. This is rational and supported by previous data points about Tesla from the automotive media that later turned out to be exaggerated (against Tesla).

That said, using your numbers for 2024 and estimating 2025 sales at 4,000 below your estimated cap of 25,000, I come up with 60K in the first two years, or 30K per year. It may be a bit more than that, none of us can say for sure. And it does seem sales are picking up from a disasterous Q1 and Q2. If my 35K per year average for the last two years was too high for you, go ahead and attack me personally, because it's not a good look for you.

Tesla has just recently started the long process of getting the Cybertruck certified for sales outside the US, so I expect international sales to boost the numbers a bit over time, while domestic sales certainly have plenty of room to run. It's still early in the lifecycle of a brand new platform. Many won't even purchase a new platform until it has a couple years to prove it's reliability (or even longer to prove it's durability).

It seems to me there are a few very vocal people on this forum who are overly eager to write the Cybertruck off (or maybe they just don't understand the typical lifecycle of new models in the industry). It's capital intensive to bring a new model to market, particularly one as advanced and unique as the Cybertruck, so manufacturers are never quick to give up before they give the new platform time to mature. And Elon is not known for giving up on anything unless he determines there is no possible way to succeed. The Cybertruck is selling very well indeed relative to other vehicles that start at $80K (and it's only been on the market for less than 2 years).

I guess I just don't understand why the eager-beaver Cybertruck naysayers are so vocal and so willing to write off an entirely new platform that is so superior to the competition at the same price point. The fact that it looks so different, so futuristic, is a reason to give it more time, not less. It takes time for people to leave their old biases behind.

Having driven four different model Teslas now (my Cyberbeast, and three others Tesla let me borrow when I brought my Cybertruck in for service) there simply is no contest – of the others I've tried, Cybertruck is the best vehicle Tesla makes:

1) Model S - too low to the ground. Not a comfortable ride. Hated the yoke steering wheel.
2) Model X - too much glass. On a fall day I was getting burnt alive, and couldn't find a way to block the sun. It was the nicest driving of the three, but not as smooth as Cybertruck, and lack of drive by wire bugged me. I didn't like the bubble window feel. Also didn't like the yoke steering wheel. The rear doors were a joke...difficult to get in the vehicle.
3) Model Y (old version) - it was ok. Nice smallish car. Steering wheel too huge for such a small car. Reminded me of a Toyota Yaris or Corolla. For around town driving, I'd probably choose this one.

 

[YDR37]

If you are inclined to "write off" the Cybertruck due to low sales, then you would have to "write off" the entire EV pickup sector, because nothing else is selling significantly better.

And manufacturers aren't doing that. On the contrary, new players, like Ram, Kia, Scout, and Slate, are all making plans to enter the EV pickup market. However, it's true that they will be trying some new approaches.

One new strategy is EREVs -- extended range EVs with a supplemental ICE that acts as a generator. Should see this with the Scout Terra and the Ram 1500 REV (formerly named the "Ramcharger", but Stellantis apparently decided that "Ramcharger" was a poor name for a Ram with a charger). Tesla will never go the ICE generator route. Tesla did consider the "Range Extender" supplemental battery as a way to extend range, but ultimately dropped it.

Another new approach is smaller and less expensive EV pickups. Should see this with Slate, Kia, and Ford. Tesla could conceivably go this route -- a relatively small inexpensive "Model P" pickup would seem like an appropriate partner for the Model 3 sedan and Model Y SUV -- but there are no signs that they are doing so.

 

[SCTesla]

In my world, a "homer" is a good thing!

Tesla doesn't disclose sales numbers by individual models so any global sales figures are just an educated guess. The auto industry/media has a consistent anti-Tesla bias so I naturally take the numbers they publish with a grain of salt. This is rational and supported by previous data points about Tesla from the automotive media that later turned out to be exaggerated (against Tesla).

That said, using your numbers for 2024 and estimating 2025 sales at 4,000 below your estimated cap of 25,000, I come up with 60K in the first two years, or 30K per year. It may be a bit more than that, none of us can say for sure. And it does seem sales are picking up from a disasterous Q1 and Q2. If my 35K per year average for the last two years was too high for you, go ahead and attack me personally, because it's not a good look for you.

Tesla has just recently started the long process of getting the Cybertruck certified for sales outside the US, so I expect international sales to boost the numbers a bit over time, while domestic sales certainly have plenty of room to run. It's still early in the lifecycle of a brand new platform. Many won't even purchase a new platform until it has a couple years to prove it's reliability (or even longer to prove it's durability).

It seems to me there are a few very vocal people on this forum who are overly eager to write the Cybertruck off (or maybe they just don't understand the typical lifecycle of new models in the industry). It's capital intensive to bring a new model to market, particularly one as advanced and unique as the Cybertruck, so manufacturers are never quick to give up before they give the new platform time to mature. And Elon is not known for giving up on anything unless he determines there is no possible way to succeed. The Cybertruck is selling very well indeed relative to other vehicles that start at $80K (and it's only been on the market for less than 2 years).

I guess I just don't understand why the eager-beaver Cybertruck naysayers are so vocal and so willing to write off an entirely new platform that is so superior to the competition at the same price point. The fact that it looks so different, so futuristic, is a reason to give it more time, not less. It takes time for people to leave their old biases behind.

You can't do "30k per year" because year 1, last year, was a higher year as it had pent up demand.

We all own Cybertrucks and most of us love them. It doesn't make it any less of a flop from Tesla. The line is fully utilized at 125k and was planned on being increased to 250k...then they are going to sell less than 25k in year 2? That's not a success.

You don't seem to live in reality. It is what it is. Q3 was down from Q1 with the CT...I don't even get where you are saying "sales are picking up from a disastrous Q1 and Q2.

 

[SCTesla]

If you are inclined to "write off" the Cybertruck due to low sales, then you would have to "write off" the entire EV pickup sector, because nothing else is selling significantly better.

Correct, the entire EV Pickup market has very low demand.

 

[Griswold]

OK, I guess it just sounded like that.



Congrats! Welcome to the Cybertruck family! Have you put it to work yet? You know, hauling tools/materials, towing trailers, etc? That's when it really comes into it's element relative to other trucks in the same 1/2 ton class (besides all the tech and driving dynamics advantages).

Thanks! No, and probably won't be doing that, but nice to have the option. Right now just need a 5 seater with a bed for hauling travel gear, home improvement purchases, etc., that feels and looks like the future.

 

[Mikec3399]

Are there any 2024 Foundation Series Cyberbeasts NEW, definitely interested to adding to my fleet. and only at 0% Financing, with free lifetime supercharging, Free Connectivity, Free Powershare

 

[seussiii]

Does anyone else remember doing fund raisers as a child? Inevitably my parents would end up buying most of them because I would eat them and I had to hit the goal. This feels like that.

Nope. Because I close. Now put the coffee...DOWN.

 

[dalton108]

Are there any 2024 Foundation Series Cyberbeasts NEW, definitely interested to adding to my fleet. and only at 0% Financing, with free lifetime supercharging, Free Connectivity, Free Powershare

It’s an incredible deal and these incentives are outrageous. We in the choir know that. The truck is unfairly maligned. It deserves better.

 

[Darmie]

Do you have a source for that? All of the sources breaking the news said it was inventory.

Joe Tegtmeyer.

 

[CyberGus]

2) Model X - too much glass.

You sure you've driven a Cybertruck?

 

[Cactusrick]

If you are inclined to "write off" the Cybertruck due to low sales, then you would have to "write off" the entire EV pickup sector, because nothing else is selling significantly better.

And manufacturers aren't doing that. On the contrary, new players, like Ram, Kia, Scout, and Slate, are all making plans to enter the EV pickup market. However, it's true that they will be trying some new approaches.

One new strategy is EREVs -- extended range EVs with a supplemental ICE that acts as a generator. Should see this with the Scout Terra and the Ram 1500 REV (formerly named the "Ramcharger", but Stellantis apparently decided that "Ramcharger" was a poor name for a Ram with a charger). Tesla will never go the ICE generator route. Tesla did consider the "Range Extender" supplemental battery as a way to extend range, but ultimately dropped it.

Another new approach is smaller and less expensive EV pickups. Should see this with Slate, Kia, and Ford. Tesla could conceivably go this route -- a relatively small inexpensive "Model P" pickup would seem like an appropriate partner for the Model 3 sedan and Model Y SUV -- but there are no signs that they are doing so.

The Slate truck is the anagram of Tesla....

Sponsored