Cybertruck registrations outnumbered R1T in March 2024. Lightning lead the pack

[PATEL]

Data reported by https://www.autonews.com/sales/new-tesla-cybertruck-beats-rivian-r1t-march-registrations

In its fourth month on sale, the Tesla Cybertruck had 1,158 registrations versus the Rivian R1T's 548.

The Ford F-150 Lightning led the EV pickup segment with 2,893, S&P Global Mobility data showed.

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[rizvend]

Vapor ware they say! Too bad the internet remembers well. ??

 

[Cyberer]

Will outsell both the others combined this month, I'd think, and then start overtaking many of the lower-volume ICE pickup sales numbers.

 

[pricedm]

Just a guess based on Rivian's total January 2024 registration data: 3,818 R1s. Maybe Rivian had 3,500+ R1S registrations in March 2024...plus 550-ish R1T

More EVs is a good thing.

 

[HaulingAss]

Data reported by https://www.autonews.com/sales/new-tesla-cybertruck-beats-rivian-r1t-march-registrations

In its fourth month on sale, the Tesla Cybertruck had 1,158 registrations versus the Rivian R1T's 548.

The Ford F-150 Lightning led the EV pickup segment with 2,893, S&P Global Mobility data showed.

I believe April Cybertruck registrations were strongly impacted by the holdup for the accelerator pedal recall.

That means May numbers should come in strong.

 

[carsly]

Two words.

Production. Constrained.

 

[tripzero]

I believe April Cybertruck registrations were strongly impacted by the holdup for the accelerator pedal recall.

That means May numbers should come in strong.

Even with the recall, production hit 1k/week. You only need a week and a half to beat March. I'm with you though, May will be nuts as I believe they have sustained close to 1k/week where in April, it was just a peak and the average was something lower.

 

[Cyber Man]

Two words.

Production. Constrained.

Absolutely agree! Once Cybertruck ramp up is at 100%, these numbers are going to look way different. I’m surprised that despite production constraints, Cybertruck sales are strong.

 

[pricedm]

Hope I am underestimating:

 

[carsly]

Hope I am underestimating:

Worthwhile exercise. We know Austin hit a peak run-rate of 1K Cybertrucks/week around the time of the recall. Your numbers assume a degradation in production until September until a resumption of the already achieved rate through year end. I'm thinking if we're not seeing 2K trucks/week soon someone is going to lose their job...oh right, the head of Cybertruck manufacturing just left so maybe that person already did lose their job.

 

[tingmo13]

and F150 has 4 level of trims-if Cybertruck smaller trim is available I am all in!

 

[Fabville]

It’ll be interesting to see these numbers change in the coming months, especially with the Cybertruck continuing to ramp up.

 

[Arctic_White]

Hope I am underestimating:

Very conservative but I like it.

The production will only ramp up, barring any major issues. It was 1K/week in April, then maybe it'll hit 1.25K/week in May, then 1.5K/week in June, etc.

It only ramps up.

Hard to say what the final 2024 figures will be, but Tesla has said that they are on pace to reach 125K annual production in 2025. That's 2.5K/week or production, on average, assuming a 2-week shutdown of production for maintenance.

So the question is, will Tesla hit 2.5K/week production in early 2025 or late 2025?

My Tesla's warranty is up in October of 2025. I'm hoping to pick up my Cybertruck before the warranty is up.

 

[LexusCyber]

CT registrations are great, but there is one problem: they don't include my registration .. so I am back in speculating production rates and to guess the future moment of bliss.

here is my wishful thinking projecting the CT weekly production run rate. a hurricane path style approach considering 3 scenarios with simple assumptions:

weekly run rates increases are constant for the purpose of this exercise and picked as examples only as I don't have insight into product process and changes that will accelerate the production increase at an uneven speed. this modelling is simple to help give me an idea about when do I get my CT if I my RN is around 160k.. I know, I know, we can't quite tell future by RN but here I am modelling my wishful thinking because I have nothing else to do but wait to see how this saga plays out... it is nice to have a plan and a belief even if will turn not to be entirely true in the end

Cybertruck weekly production rates increases
Scenario #1: +100/wk;
Scenario#2: +125/wk;
Scenario #3: +150/wk

Elon was hoping for 125,000 units to be produced in 2024 best case scenario. I am not confident that will happen. I wish it would happen though.. go Elon!

based on this simple model, my belief is that with RN~160k I have a shot at getting a nonFS AWD somewhere in Fall of 2025, so I am planning with that timeframe in mind. if earlier, great! if later, damn!

What is your plan? ....Wait, do you have a plan other then waiting? curious how people are guessing ( or not) their future.

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