Cybertruck Implications of 2024 F150 Lightning Price Increases

[KScheidt]

Looks like Ford is increasing the price of the F-150 Lightning for the 2024 model year by up to $9,600.

• Pro: $52,090 ($2,095 increase)
• XLT: $59,590 ($2,500 increase)
• Flash: $72,090 (new trim for 2024)
• Lariat: $79,590 ($9,595 increase)
• Platinum: TBD

I honestly expected Ford and the rest of the competition to wait out the Cybertruck reveal event and be more reactionary with pricing but perhaps by being a first mover here they are hoping Tesla won't undercut them as much to take more margin up front/during production ramp? Thoughts?

Source: https://www.autoblog.com/2023/10/25/the-ford-f-150-lightning-is-getting-price-increases-for-2024/

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[Gurule92]

Some good ole fashioned corporate espionage? XLT and between flash and lariat are where my predictions for CT are.

 

[Bill837]

Damn, so how much will the Lightning II Electric Unibody Bugalooo cost? And weigh?

 

[Crissa]

Damn, so how much will the Lightning II Electric Unibody Bugalooo cost? And weigh?

That's supposedly 2025 still.

-Crissa

 

[charliemagpie]

The prices look thereabouts, in line with our CT guessed price.

At least they seem reasonable to me, compared to fantasy original prices set to look good as a marketing exercise.

But still, just like Tesla, at scale, Ford needs to prove profit to maintain that price. I think they are far behind on that front.

 

[cvalue13]

At least they seem reasonable to me, compared to fantasy original prices set to look good as a marketing exercise.

still higher than the original pricing at Lightning release

they’ve see-sawed pricing from from at first low, to high, to higher, to medium, to back to ~high

it’s a real rollercoaster!

 

[Arctic_White]

Looks like Ford is increasing the price of the F-150 Lightning for the 2024 model year by up to $9,600.

• Pro: $52,090 ($2,095 increase)
• XLT: $59,590 ($2,500 increase)
• Flash: $72,090 (new trim for 2024)
• Lariat: $79,590 ($9,595 increase)
• Platinum: TBD

I honestly expected Ford and the rest of the competition to wait out the Cybertruck reveal event and be more reactionary with pricing but perhaps by being a first mover here they are hoping Tesla won't undercut them as much to take more margin up front/during production ramp? Thoughts?

Source: https://www.autoblog.com/2023/10/25/the-ford-f-150-lightning-is-getting-price-increases-for-2024/

Just a short while back, Elon said that the Lightning is a good product but somewhat expensive.

Last week during the earnings call, he also cautioned shareholders to not expect crazy good margins from the Cybertruck.

All of this leads me to believe that the Cybertruck would be priced under the Ford Lightning but with better specs.

So perhaps $60K for the dual motor and under $80K for performance?

 

[cvalue13]

So perhaps $60K for the dual motor and under $80K for performance?

Often admitting this is a topic I feel out to sea on, I’m generally leaning the direction you are as relates to the dual

since they’re going to make predominately duals, the broader rationals you state sort of collapses to the dual pricing being the driver

as for the ‘performance’** trim, they’ll make so few as essentially a halo/exclusive that it doesn’t really drive the pricing/margin plan for the CT. So there, I can see sky’s the limit. This is why at Model S Plaid release they could charge $35-40K over the LR S, and like $50-$69K over the Model S base trim. They’re pricing incentives for this sort of limit product are just fundamentally different: you don’t *want* to build a lot (the COGS aren’t as good, the buyer market isn’t there, you price for exclusivity, and there’s intangible corporate value in the bragging rights the specs bring.)

put differently, your rationale is compelling to me as relates to the dual, which will be the volume driver and have to adhere to basic sorts of bottom line fundamentals - but the ‘performance’ doesn’t have to follow those Fundamentals, as it can be subject to a different set of goals from a low volume trim


**personal view: we should stop calling it the ‘tri’ as it creates confusion and there’s too much baggage around the appearance that this ‘performance’ model being released Nov 30 (which happens to have three motors) is meaningfully related to ‘The Tri Motor’ described in 2019 and discussed for for years since.

maybe it’s just a personal quirk, but I feel that observing this distinction helps people to understand (correctly I think) that the trim being released on Nov 30 is not *a failed version of the tri described in 2019*, but instead a surprise/extra trim we’ve not considered before (basically, ‘The Dial’ on steroids)

 

[Arctic_White]

Often admitting this is a topic I feel out to sea on, I’m generally leaning the direction you are as relates to the dual

since they’re going to make predominately duals, the broader rationals you state sort of collapses to the dual pricing being the driver

as for the ‘performance’** trim, they’ll make so few as essentially a halo/exclusive that it doesn’t really drive the pricing/margin plan for the CT. So there, I can see sky’s the limit. This is why at Model S Plaid release they could charge $35-40K over the LR S, and like $50-$69K over the Model S base trim. They’re pricing incentives for this sort of limit product are just fundamentally different: you don’t *want* to build a lot (the COGS aren’t as good, the buyer market isn’t there, you price for exclusivity, and there’s intangible corporate value in the bragging rights the specs bring.)

put differently, your rationale is compelling to me as relates to the dual, which will be the volume driver and have to adhere to basic sorts of bottom line fundamentals - but the ‘performance’ doesn’t have to follow those Fundamentals, as it can be subject to a different set of goals from a low volume trim


**personal view: we should stop calling it the ‘tri’ as it creates confusion and there’s too much baggage around the appearance that this ‘performance’ model being released Nov 30 (which happens to have three motors) is meaningfully related to ‘The Tri Motor’ described in 2019 and discussed for for years since.

maybe it’s just a personal quirk, but I feel that observing this distinction helps people to understand (correctly I think) that the trim being released on Nov 30 is not *a failed version of the tri described in 2019*, but instead a surprise/extra trim we’ve not considered before (basically, ‘The Dial’ on steroids)

All the points that you raised are very valid and logically sound.

Dual / base = $60K. Volume driver.
Performance = $80K or more?! I mean sure, if they want to price it more than $80K then they better have 500+ mile range. Otherwise, the market for an $80K pickup truck isn't as large as one would think.

 

[cvalue13]

Otherwise, the market for an $80K pickup truck isn't as large as one would think.

nor is the market for a $131,000 sedan with 348mi range, that while absurdly fast, was widely agreed by professional drivers to be a mess to drive in anything but a straight line? And with brakes and a battery that melt when given any sustained work.

But they sold probably as many of those as they expected to, I’d think

and later reduced the price considerably, while fixing performance issues materially.

maybe another way to think of this; for 4 years people have been beating a drum that all model variants of the CT were intended to ‘disrupt the truck market’ collectively and equally. That historical baggage keeps weighing down our thinking in this new reality.

whether it was ever true, where we may be today is that the ‘performance’ model - at least for now - is roughly equivalent to the importance of the strategy and bottom line as the Model S Plaid on release (like the Shelby Raptor for Ford).

If it’s *remotely arguable* that the CT base model has comparable all-in specs to the Raptor, while being at or only marginally more expensive than a mid-ranged F150c that means:

(1) that’s a good first step in a medium term plan to disrupt, and

(2) the ‘performance’ model isn’t necessarily remotely a key part of that plan

To the degree that’s true, it’s MSRP may be the weather vein. Tesla knows how pricing works with volume. If they release a high priced ‘performance,’ it’s not because they forgot it’s importance to the plan, but because it’s not an important part of the plan.

Again not saying this is the case, but instead it’s something like the case where/if an unexpectedly high priced ‘performance’ comes out.

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