we may be closer than we think to the end of the foundation series upcharge

[tbuck]

Your truck beats mine on age! My current is only 17 years young! (Lots of issues now though)

Nothing major on mine. Just showi g her age livig in the Texas sun all those years (did not fit in the garage).

- clearcoat is basically gone on 2/3 of the truck
- paint is mostly gone on the hood and roof
- leather seats worn through (and two sets of leather seat covers)
- both front doors out of alignment after getting blown out of hands in a major storm

BUT! She still runs, had to replace the alternator after 21 years. The AC compressor after 23. The oil pan after 24. So, I got my money's worth out of it while I see newer F-150s have more issues in the first four years than I have seen (mechanically).

Time to move on....

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[jerhenderson]

I feel as though we may be closer than we think to the end of the foundation series upcharge.

I was assigned a vin that 3 different people had passed on, (i also passed on it).

Also people are going from order to vin in a matter of days, the production rate is accelerating and we are just a few weeks away from the 20K vin mark.

I feel as though it is really hard for tesla to justify a "limited edition" after 20K have been mass produced.

I say all this selfishly as I want a cyber soon but I don't want to pay the foundation tax.

It's limited as soon as it ends. Could be 20k... could be 100k.

 

[CybertruckCovers]

I suspect the tactical grey interior and all-season tires, scheduled to begin production in a few weeks if you believe the rumors

Where did you read these rumors? If true, that's super exciting! I changed my Foundation Series order to the Tactical Grey interior, and it pushed my delivery date back a few months.

 

[Skunkworks]

I've been wrong once already, but FWIW the salesperson I saw the other day mentioned that 20k was the likely number of total foundation series trucks being delivered.

 

[HyperReality]

Probably one of the best assessments I’ve read on the FS / demand.

All this said… I saw another post of yours that you have pulled the trigger on FS knowing that non-FS was around the corner. I’d be interested (and I’d imagine others who are on the fence) in why you decided to pull the trigger now vs wait?

For me, I also pulled the trigger knowing non FS will be here in 7 months. I ordered now due to timing of needing a new car and assigning value to the FS options. I wanted FSD (including auto park in this giant), the all terrains and home backup. That’s not worth $20k.. maybe 12-15? So in my head my impatience tax is 5-8k to get the car now vs a year from now. Not a lot when I’m an old man looking back at this.

That’s my justification for dropping $100k and sticking to it!

When they have 2 million + reservations, they have a whole lot more to offer the foundation model to. It's reasonable for people to wait, but people should also consider that if Tesla cycles back to the beginning of the reservations that passed on the foundation model, the base 80k model will probably have big spike in demand... So if you are already 300k+ in the reservation #s... You'll be back to waiting for them to offer you a base model all over again. So passing on the foundation trim can easily mean you will wait another year unless you were early reservation #.

 

[Cyber Man]

When they have 2 million + reservations, they have a whole lot more to offer the foundation model to. It's reasonable for people to wait, but people should also consider that if Tesla cycles back to the beginning of the reservations that passed on the foundation model, the base 80k model will probably have big spike in demand... So if you are already 300k+ in the reservation #s... You'll be back to waiting for them to offer you a base model all over again. So passing on the foundation trim can easily mean you will wait another year unless you were early reservation #.

You are right. I hope they honor the reservation number and not order date for non foundation series. When the flood gates open, there will be a mad rush for sure, at least during the first year.

 

[newwave1331]

RN113556XXX got my foundation invite tonight. (June 2020 preorder).

 

[Hgamble]

RN113556XXX got my foundation invite tonight. (June 2020 preorder).

Which way are you leaning? Test my theory or pay the foundation tax?

 

[newwave1331]

Which way are you leaning? Test my theory or pay the foundation tax?

Idk but my brain hurts from thinking about this for the last 7 hours.

I’m going to sleep on it.

 

[Coagulation]

When they have 2 million + reservations, they have a whole lot more to offer the foundation model to. It's reasonable for people to wait, but people should also consider that if Tesla cycles back to the beginning of the reservations that passed on the foundation model, the base 80k model will probably have big spike in demand... So if you are already 300k+ in the reservation #s... You'll be back to waiting for them to offer you a base model all over again. So passing on the foundation trim can easily mean you will wait another year unless you were early reservation #.

Good point. It’s not like everyone waiting gets their non-FS on Jan 1 2025. If this invite already received unlocks any purchase, then there are going to be a ridiculous amount of orders all hitting at once sometime in the next 6 months. Or they cycle back and start over. Higher uptake but also higher production.

 

[carsly]

Where did you read these rumors? If true, that's super exciting! I changed my Foundation Series order to the Tactical Grey interior, and it pushed my delivery date back a few months.

Okay, more deduction than rumors....

When I configured last Friday white with all terrains was June-Sept delivery and tactical grey with either set of tires was July-Sept. That indicates to me that Tactical Grey doesn't been production until late June/July at the earliest.

 

[CyberSecurityTruck]

Okay, more deduction than rumors....

When I configured last Friday white with all terrains was June-Sept delivery and tactical grey with either set of tires was July-Sept. That indicates to me that Tactical Grey doesn't been production until late June/July at the earliest.

I can also confirm, White interior pickup is this month (June) for me in Texas.
Tactical Grey is August-September.

Also saw a few people saying they were given a VIN and the CT had white interior even though they ordered grey. They were able to get it resolved though and are back to waiting like the rest of us.

 

[Trbizwiz]

I suspect the tactical grey interior and all-season tires, scheduled to begin production in a few weeks if you believe the rumors, were likely the intended start of non-Foundation Series in July.

BUT...there is still a huge backlog of orders so why not extend Foundation Series until everyone in the line has had a chance to decide if they want a Foundation Series? Smart way to build up FSD sales/penetration as well.

I think Foundation will remain as a quick order option. If your first order is today, but you select foundation, you get the truck in 30 days, sort of thing. It will crush all scalping. Every unique order will be to the actual owner.
I think more people would want the white, if it included white seats, but the white panels just look out of place in that interior.

 

[JohnnyDadBod]

I don't think Tesla will limit the foundation series production based on any other metric than demand. I believe that Tesla is likely to offer all current reservation owners the opportunity to configure FS before they end the offering. Some have speculated a 2-3% take rate on Foundation Series thus far. For grins and giggles, let's assume that is somewhat accurate and do some quick math.

With 2 million pre-orders that is 40k-60k trucks. with the $20k premium for FS that is $800,000,000 to $1,200,000,000 in potential FS additional revenue. I don't think Tesla will walk away from that before they are sure that then have exhausted demand.

 

[NSCyber]

It’s obviously anyone’s guess as to what Tesla is going to do and when but what incentive does Tesla have (other than getting the price under the tax credit) to lower the price to the “estimated” 79,990 for AWD and have all FS owners take a huge depreciation hit (which we rightfully agreed and signed up for)?

I wouldn’t be surprised if Tesla gradually decreased the price to see who bites and also makes it so that the price gets pretty close to FS pricing once all the FS “freebies” are included.

Maybe the price is 84,990 but once you chose to add FSD supervised + white interior + 35” tires you get really close to the FS all-in pricing.

Non-foundation owners might be a little peeved because it’s not under $80k but it’s close enough to decide to place the order and FS owners aren’t pissed because it’s close to their fully loaded models.

Now that order to vin to delivery is super short im guessing they might make the switch pretty fast because what’s to stop all the people who have placed the order and awaiting a VIN to switch over to non-FS and immediately get a price reduction?

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