Cyberwar (Cybertruck vs Model Y)

Diehard

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Model Y is selling like hotcakes.

Will Tesla be shooting itself in the foot with introducing CT at the same price point (CT2 vs Y)?

Do you think:
- Y will have a price drop when CT rolls in?
- CT will have a price hike in form of options?
- Tesla will delay or slow down production of CT to squeeze as many Ys out of the factory as possible?
or
- There is no overlap between Y and CT costumers?

Were any of you about to order a Y and went on hold for CT when news came out?

Any of you that are at the end of the line for CT and considering dropping out and going for Y?

Any other thoughts on Y vs CT?
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Crissa

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Luke's probably got it. There won't be alot of overlap also, because the Cybertruck will just cost more to keep than a Y. It's got a big footprint that doesn't fit everywhere, it'll use alot more energy, and lots of people won't feel comfortable driving it. And that's appropriate! We wouldn't want everyone driving big bricks.

- Y will have a price drop when CT rolls in?
- CT will have a price hike in form of options?
- Tesla will delay or slow down production of CT to squeeze as many Ys out of the factory as possible?
or
- There is no overlap between Y and CT costumers?
  1. Probably. It will cost less to produce, initially. And it will use fewer batteries
  2. Yes. That's how options work! Get people to pay as much as they want.
  3. Unlikely. Unless they're battery constrained, and then they'll slow-walk the smaller battery packs.
  4. There's a small overlap, but not a large one.

-Crissa
 

Sirfun

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When I watched the reveal I thought about this also. But Luke42 is right. If Tesla worried about taking away sales from the Model S they would have never made the M-3. And if they worried about the 3 they would have never made the M-Y. And they wouldn't have made 500,000 cars last year.
Tesla knows they need to give the public choices, or they will buy from someone else. That's why they need to come out with more models as they increase their ability to build more vehicles.
Sure sometimes it takes away from a possible sale, but with more options comes more sales!
More sales, makes my stock go up!!!!! :)
 
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Diehard

Diehard

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A great point. To be frank my sweating is not for Tesla. I know they will be fine. It is mainly for me. I think I hold something around spot 700,000 on reservation line. I would like to have my first and probably only EV before I have my first heart attack. Elon has mentioned that the battery problem is an "interesting" one to solve. It gave me the impression he has not solved it yet. I don't think he is making the CT because he has too many batteries and he does not know what to do with them. I think it is partly because truck is a market that can not be ignored, and partly because Rivian pushed his hand on timing of it otherwise, he probably would wait a bit longer on his schedule to go to production. Now the question is if that "interesting" problem is not solved to meet the demand of Smi, M3, Y , power wall and every other battery hungry device on the planet, would he put more of those batteries in Y or CT? Would my 3 year wait turn into 5? In other words is one Y in the hand worth more than a CT2 in the bush? If it is a 3 year bush may be, if it is 5+ ...... it may be a different story. I am not half as interested in Y as I am in CT but I wonder where Tesla's priorities are if there is a choice to be made especially if one line is running and already producing a lot of profit.
 

Challeco

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Luke's probably got it. There won't be alot of overlap also, because the Cybertruck will just cost more to keep than a Y. It's got a big footprint that doesn't fit everywhere, it'll use alot more energy, and lots of people won't feel comfortable driving it. And that's appropriate! We wouldn't want everyone driving big bricks.


  1. Probably. It will cost less to produce, initially. And it will use fewer batteries
  2. Yes. That's how options work! Get people to pay as much as they want.
  3. Unlikely. Unless they're battery constrained, and then they'll slow-walk the smaller battery packs.
  4. There's a small overlap, but not a large one.

-Crissa
I certainly agree with you and Luke. But I keep reading these assertions about the C.T. size being so big. I live in an area where trucks and SUV style vehicles are preferred. I've written before that I drive an old 8' bed F250. I read on another string the approximate dimensions of the C.T. are 6'Hx6'Wx19'L. If this holds true, then I know that I will have no problem with driving, parking lot spaces, parallel parking, or parking my C.T. in my garage. I cannot park my F250 in my garage because (it is stock height and tires) the overall height is 6'8" with the (dealer install) spotlight that is mounted to the roof. I admit my truck, with the spotlight and lumber rack are taller than cars and smaller pickups, but my stock two car garage door will almost accommodate it already if it weren't for the driveway angle going into the garage. My 1966 Ford galaxie is 6 feet wide and 19 feet long. My truck is also 6 feet wide and 19 feet long. The C.T. won't be any bigger than a Dodge, Chevy, Ford, or Toyota, it'll just intimidate them with capability.
 


Sirfun

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A great point. To be frank my sweating is not for Tesla. I know they will be fine. It is mainly for me. I think I hold something around spot 700,000 on reservation line. I would like to have my first and probably only EV before I have my first heart attack. Elon has mentioned that the battery problem is an "interesting" one to solve. It gave me the impression he has not solved it yet. I don't think he is making the CT because he has too many batteries and he does not know what to do with them. I think it is partly because truck is a market that can not be ignored, and partly because Rivian pushed his hand on timing of it otherwise, he probably would wait a bit longer on his schedule to go to production. Now the question is if that "interesting" problem is not solved to meet the demand of Smi, M3, Y , power wall and every other battery hungry device on the planet, would he put more of those batteries in Y or CT? Would my 3 year wait turn into 5? In other words is one Y in the hand worth more than a CT2 in the bush? If it is a 3 year bush may be, if it is 5+ ...... it may be a different story. I am not half as interested in Y as I am in CT but I wonder where Tesla's priorities are if there is a choice to be made especially if one line is running and already producing a lot of profit.
This answers your post on cannibalizing the Y. The Cybertruck will drive interest through the roof. And people that want a Tesla but don't want to wait, will be be buying Model Y's. ;)
 

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right now at what is known, CT all the way for the price point for me.

But.....if more info comes out later with more options that make the CT a higher price point or if the Y goes down in price....plus if the Tax credit comes and starts to phase out before my CT is available, it may create a big enough gap in cost to consider a switch.
 

Crissa

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But I keep reading these assertions about the C.T. size being so big.
It is! A Model Y is literally 3/4s the size of a Cybertruck. You can fit four Ys where you can only fit three Cybertrucks. (That doesn't quite work out in parking places, but if you're like me, not every space will fit a Cybertruck, but most will fit a Model Y.)

That's a big difference, especially if you have to pay for your parking. And yes, most people do, even if it's included in their taxes or mortgage.

And on top of that, a Cybertruck is going to use more energy (50% more, probably) to do the same things. And insurance will be higher. So TCO will favor Model Y.

-Crissa
 
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Diehard

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It is! A Model Y is literally 3/4s the size of a Cybertruck.
-Crissa
I just went outside wih a measuring tape to get a sense of it. Prototype CT is 3 feet longer than my current Truck. I have driven larger trucks than CT but for my daily driver, I definitely could use a 360 camera to park that beast with minimal effort in the city.
 


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Diehard

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Yeah, I'd take a truck the size of a Model Y. I don't need so much room as I need the bed.

But I can't fit my motorcycle in a Model Y, it doesn't have a bed!

-Crissa
Other than price, bed size is the other downside of Rivian. I have a six foot bed and don't want to go smaller. CT's 6.5 is perfect. I wonder if design update took so long because they were trying to figure out how to shorten the bed when you are not using it.
 

Sirfun

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Yeah, I'd take a truck the size of a Model Y. I don't need so much room as I need the bed.

But I can't fit my motorcycle in a Model Y, it doesn't have a bed!

-Crissa
That's why I want a 2seater Cybertruck. Then I'd have a fullsize for the family, and a 2seater for me to play with and reduce costs.
 

NiceGuyMax

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I will only be buying a CT. I'll stick with my Taco if Elon pushes production off too much. I don't want to be 70 when my order number comes up.
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