Elon Musk doesn't care if the Cybertruck flops

[Skynetassaultvehicle]

Not holding my breath on this. It's kind of 50/50 or maybe 20/80. Didn't help Aztek or Subaru Brat owners for certain. Element and Subaru Baja owners enjoyed it. Not sure where the Avalanche fits into the mix.

My hope is there are 40 generations of Cybertruck's which are loved by car owners of future generations and mine being from the first generation will be sought after by collectors.

I was thinking more along the lines of a Chevy SSR truck, Plymouth Prowler or DeLorean

Sponsored

 

[JBee]

No, you cannot have a democracy with a non-fiat currency.

If the currency is tied to a resource, then the producer of that resource have veto on any democratic decisions. That's why the silver runs of the nineteenth century were a big deal (and why it's somewhat annoying that they're not taught in elementary school let alone high school).

The best would be for the central bank to be operated by the government, but capitalists - specifically bankers - do not want their power disrupted. Their power of interest rate can topple any government. It's a weak point in our current system of government, but the US has for the last seventy years escaped it by playing multiple banks off each other and retaining control of prime rate.

Capital is the horse democracy rides, but only sort of controls. That's why regulation is so important.

There hasn't been 40 generations since cars were invented!

-Crissa

History tells us that:

The US founding fathers founded modern democracy without fiat currency in the late 1700's.

They had a representative currency at that time, that had no to little inflation until the early 1900's great depression, where the banks where caught issuing currency for reserves they did not have, resulting in a currency crash. This is where the term "bankrupt" comes from, banks going bankrupt, NOT customers of the bank going bankrupt.

The representative currency, or "Gold Standard" was only abolished by Nixon in 1971, only 50 years ago which then resulted USD being "fiat currency". Other nations done similar things on different dates.

No, you cannot have a democracy with a non-fiat currency.

The original "democracy", as envisioned by the founding fathers, was most definitely before fiat currency, some 200 years beforehand in 1776. So democracy most definitely works without fiat currency. And works much better to boot.

I can load you up with wiki links if you like, but feel free to research yourself. Most of this is just from memory. Google is your friend. Sometimes.

 

[Crissa]

Dude, learn about the gilded age, the silver runs, company towns, and then maybe you'll be in a position to talk.

Until then, JBee, your statements are just hero-worshiping, not based in any reality.

I'm sorry. The real world is dirty and messy and no, despite the founding father's lofty goals, we did not have democracy for a large majority of the population.

-Crissa

 

[Throwcomputer]

Jbeet a dead horse. Man you both love to debate the shit out of off topic politics. You even cyber truck bro? Talk about hijacking threads.

 

[JBee]

Happy to cyber talk! Just need to keep them flies off my horses back. I feel like I'm being followed otherwise.

---

The reason EM doesn't care if the CT flops is because people can't read context.

"To be frank, there is always some chance that Cybertruck will flop, because it is so unlike anything else. I don't care,"

So he is not saying he doesn't care if it flops, he is saying there is always some chance it can. In particular the risk is because because it's unlike anything else, and has never been done before, like this shape, or out of this material, or as a EV truck etc. In the next sentence he is saying he doesn't care about the risk, he's going to do it anyway.

Then he says:
Musk tweeted. "I love it so much even if others don't."

That means he is 100% committed to making it work even though there is some risk as above, and regardless of all the naysayers who think it doesn't work. He is referencing the article after all.

"Other trucks look like copies of the same thing, but Cybertruck looks like it was made by aliens from the future," he added.

Also reconfirming that this "alien technology" truck is indeed a hard thing to make, and can have unidentified risks that could make it fail.

Sounds completely reasonable to me.

 

[TechOps]

Sales will be 3-5 million worldwide in the first 5 years. Then 1-200k/yr thereafter. With Tesla having enough foresight to release a traditional truck styled model to run concurrently and be released in 3-4 years just when the tail end of the bulk of cyber truck demand is met and the preorder sales have been finally fulfilled. Therefore they keep the Elon pet project for him and the smallish fanbase around, yet start making a boat load on more traditional truck users who learn quickly that the Tesla trucks are way better than the competition.

This is what I'm thinking will happen. Initial burst of cyber trucks for a few years, then it drops off, then Tesla has the experience they need to make a mainstream truck, and have scaled up production to the point where they can sell millions. And we get left with a quirky, cool, collector's truck.

That's worst case. Best case, people adapt to CT and demand is sustained for many more years.

 

[John K]

Talk about hijacking threads.

Thread drift happens… are you pumpkin pie or apple pie?

 

[HaulingAss]

Happy to cyber talk! Just need to keep them flies off my horses back. I feel like I'm being followed otherwise.

---

The reason EM doesn't care if the CT flops is because people can't read context.

"To be frank, there is always some chance that Cybertruck will flop, because it is so unlike anything else. I don't care,"

So he is not saying he doesn't care if it flops, he is saying there is always some chance it can. In particular the risk is because because it's unlike anything else, and has never been done before, like this shape, or out of this material, or as a EV truck etc. In the next sentence he is saying he doesn't care about the risk, he's going to do it anyway.

Then he says:
Musk tweeted. "I love it so much even if others don't."

That means he is 100% committed to making it work even though there is some risk as above, and regardless of all the naysayers who think it doesn't work. He is referencing the article after all.

"Other trucks look like copies of the same thing, but Cybertruck looks like it was made by aliens from the future," he added.

Also reconfirming that this "alien technology" truck is indeed a hard thing to make, and can have unidentified risks that could make it fail.

Sounds completely reasonable to me.

I think you are taking Elon too literally, he's just not in the mood to defend the Cybertruck before they have proven production trucks ready for market. I think the only way it can fail is if Tesla cannot produce it with the stated specs and price point (and I don't really see that as being very likely). Worst case scenario, after initial deliveries at a loss, they have to add up to $10K to each trim level. In that worst case, it will not be a run-away best-seller but will still have solid sales for years to come.

The most likely scenario is Tesla does what it says it will do as far as specs and price, and then some, and it's a run-away best seller. The looks aren't going to stop that because it's actually a very good looking tool, well-suited to doing most of the things trucks are typically used for. Obviously, it will have strong and weak points when compared to a traditional gas or diesel truck but the strong points will easily carry the day for about 80% of the truck market. Because cost matters. A lot.

And people don't know this yet but they are ready for something new. Ready to leave the frumpy old-fashioned trucks behind. It's so yesteryear and only a small percentage of society wants to spend a lot of money on outdated tools.

 

[Ogre]

The most likely scenario is Tesla does what it says it will do as far as specs and price, and then some, and it's a run-away best seller. The looks aren't going to stop that because it's actually a very good looking tool, well-suited to doing most of the things trucks are typically used for. Obviously, it will have strong and weak points when compared to a traditional gas or diesel truck but the strong points will easily carry the day for about 80% of the truck market. Because cost matters. A lot.

The value proposition with the Cybertruck is what is really going to win the day. Not just versus the Ford Lightning, against any truck on the market. The F150 Lightning is only going to emphasize this.

I can't help but think getting these into the wild is only going to increase the enthusiasm for them. Who is going to pay $70,000 for a truck that doesn't have 4 wheel steering and air suspension? You'd be crazy to.

 

[John K]

Tulsa: we need to keep costs down

1. Let’s cut the steering wheel in half. Check
2. We don’t need door handles. Brilliant
3. Leaks build in a state that requires shipping out of state for pickup. Hidden shipping markups. That guy gets a corner office
4. Nobody will notice dropping radar. Awesome! Bonus!
5. You know about the spare tire? We could…

 

[Ogre]

This is what I'm thinking will happen. Initial burst of cyber trucks for a few years, then it drops off, then Tesla has the experience they need to make a mainstream truck, and have scaled up production to the point where they can sell millions. And we get left with a quirky, cool, collector's truck.

I mentioned above, a big... huge piece of the appeal of the Tesla is the value. It is the first EV which is arguably not just cost competitive, but beats the pants off it's ICE counterparts.

Unless Tesla's "Mainstream Truck" provides a similar value, I think it loses much of its appeal. I'm sure there are people who will pay $20,000 more for a Tesla truck that has a traditional form factor and the same features, but the Cybertruck feels more like the more the mass market product to me.

 

[Ogre]

Tulsa: we need to keep costs down

1. Let’s cut the steering wheel in half. Check
2. We don’t need door handles. Brilliant
3. Leaks build in a state that requires shipping out of state for pickup. Hidden shipping markups. That guy gets a corner office
4. Nobody will notice dropping radar. Awesome! Bonus!
5. You know about the spare tire? We could…

Jury is still out on delivery charges/ factory pick up.

I don't think any Tesla has come with a spare tire.

The door handle thing though... only Tesla would think that's a viable way to cut costs on a truck.

 

[John K]

Jury is still out on delivery charges/ factory pick up.

I don't think any Tesla has come with a spare tire.

The door handle thing though... only Tesla would think that's a viable way to cut costs on a truck.

Just kidding around

 

[Diehard]

Think about all the things Tesla has done to bring the cost of the Cybertruck down.

Now imagine if they applied that to a Kei truck?

Then we could have a true mini truck for $20,000.

Similarly, imagine if they made a a 4 door sedan in this same style.

I can't help but think both would be super popular. Particularly if they had a 300 mile range.

You can get an EV truck for $2K now:

 

[John K]

You can get an EV truck for $2K now:

I searched and found pricing structure, you save $20 per unit if you buy a 6pack or more. My wife wants one. So what it goes 27 mph an has lead batteries.

I am this close to an impulse buy.

Thanks for the link.

https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/2021-new-pickup-truck-model-electric_1600225736389.html

Sponsored