Update from Elon: Cybertruck production starting late 2022 and volume production in 2023

[HaulingAss]

I'm semi-agnostic regarding batteries. The proven older 28xx are likely good enough for me.

What I care more about, re Fremont versus Austin, is:
* Paint quality and
* Dual front & back mega-castings.
* Overall fit and finish (re a new production line).

My wife and I have been driving two Model 3's from early Fremont Model 3 production for the last 3 plus years. We drive on a lot of rural roads and highways that get sanded and salted in the winter, lots of gravel roads or driveways spill onto the highways. The cars are never garaged (we have a one car carport so they are generally sticking out in the weather).

Both cars still look beautiful and as new as could be expected after 3 years and their specific use. The paint has always looked beautiful and state-of-the art since day one of both cars. A very close inspection will show the normal small pits that all cars used like this get. So, I'm wondering what it is, in particular, that you think you will gain by buying a car from Austin instead of Fremont? Please be specific.

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[HaulingAss]

Cell type is pretty meaningless to the end result. Like, why would I care if the cells are pouch or cylindrical, 2170 or 4680? Yeah, next year's batteries will be better. But that's true regardless.

I agree with this, the batteries have been really good for a few years now and I wouldn't be too picky about what my next car had in it. That said, the 10% weight savings (or whatever the exact amount turns out to be) of the 4680's is about the only reason I might have a preference. If the car can weigh 100 lbs. less with the same number of kWh's, that's something I will feel in the driving dynamics. Of course, it's not a "make or break" kinda thing, just something that would be nice.

 

[LDRHAWKE]

My wife and I have been driving two Model 3's from early Fremont Model 3 production for the last 3 plus years. We drive on a lot of rural roads and highways that get sanded and salted in the winter, lots of gravel roads or driveways spill onto the highways. The cars are never garaged (we have a one car carport so they are generally sticking out in the weather).

Both cars still look beautiful and as new as could be expected after 3 years and their specific use. The paint has always looked beautiful and state-of-the art since day one of both cars. A very close inspection will show the normal small pits that all cars used like this get. So, I'm wondering what it is, in particular, that you think you will gain by buying a car from Austin instead of Fremont? Please be specific.

A Cybertruck.

 

[HaulingAss]

So if we look at the hIstory of tesla pushing timelines.. we can come to a conclusion we might see volume production in 2024? Perfect.. thats approx when my current vehicle will be due for a replacement!

I think Cybertruck will hit volume production when current guidance indicates. It sounds like the company is focused on getting 4680 production ramped and that's the limiting factor. So, unless they run into unanticipated battery production issues I think current guidance has plenty of buffer (caused by the battery delay) so it can ramp as expected.

It really comes down to when 4680 cell manufacturing can hit a high rate of production that pass quality control 99% + the time. Without that milestone, the Cybertruck in high volumes is not possible.

 

[rr6013]

the batteries just aren't where Tesla wants them to be, but yes add that to my list.

I think the Rivian is more like a Jeep niche market.

Niche==cult?
tl:dr
JEEP rescued Stellantis in Chrysler, Plymouth and Dodge sedan market collapse. RAM was a distant third rate truck whose 1st rate engineering enabled Stellantis to bridge the workhorse platform to SUV market with new fit and trim attention and quality improvement - now a #1 rated truck. At the end of the day there is something there connecting with buyers in both instances Jeep and Rivian.

It teaches niches can grow, bridge and platform onto category killer status. Stellantis makes prescient plays, timely EOL’s and shuffling its deck still for future of BEV. Its latest luxury Peugeot sedan strident design queues translate into EV seamlessly, albeit conventional chassis. Stellantis is a classic darkhorse in this automotive reshuffle that could accelerate out of rescued auto mfgr niche into EV player worldwide.

Rivian innovation and ability to walk before it talks speaks to people’s sense of “ShowMe”, as Tesla has so effectively done. Where Stellantis is a nimble adversity at-scale player Internationally, Rivian‘s scrappy upstart success fielding working functional prototype vehicles needs Sales to lift it to scale hurdles Tesla famously described as “production hell”. Pullout modular stowage units while hugely innovative and brand discriminator isn’t secret sauce wheel motors might prove to be. A technology like “axial flux” motors could significantly change Rivian’s calculus against unitary drivetrain EV design, i.e. Tesla, FORD. Rivian is definitely a watchlist mfgr. Failing that its cults and niches.

 

[17.088007490635]

My wife and I have been driving two Model 3's from early Fremont Model 3 production for the last 3 plus years. We drive on a lot of rural roads and highways that get sanded and salted in the winter, lots of gravel roads or driveways spill onto the highways. The cars are never garaged (we have a one car carport so they are generally sticking out in the weather).

Both cars still look beautiful and as new as could be expected after 3 years and their specific use. The paint has always looked beautiful and state-of-the art since day one of both cars. A very close inspection will show the normal small pits that all cars used like this get. So, I'm wondering what it is, in particular, that you think you will gain by buying a car from Austin instead of Fremont? Please be specific.

I can't be more specific. I'm trusting the opinions of others (esp. Sandy Munro).

It seems like for every good comment I hear (like yours), I hear another one slamming the Fremont paint quality. I'm hoping that Fremont does eventually get the same new paint shop that Berlin & Austin (maybe also Shanghai?) are now getting.

However, even if my paint phobia turns out to be ungrounded, that still leaves the front & back megacasting, as well as fit & finish fears.


=====


Way back when I was a bachelor I bought my first and so far only new vehicle, a Jeep TJ Wrangler. I wanted: Automatic Transmission, Air Conditioning AND a Hard Top, all in the same (Non-black-white-or-red) vehicle could not be found in ANY lot, so I placed a factory order (RARE in those days). That order seemed to take quite a while.

More recently, on October 6th, 2016 I heard that the Mitzubishi Outlander PHEV was having yet ANOTHER delay in coming to the U.S.. That was enough. I was fed up, and that very evening I placed my first Tesla reservation, for a Model 3. I've since had that reservation refunded, in favor of a Model Y and several CT reservations. So...

From 10/06/'16 to today is 1797 days AND counting that I have had some "skin" in this Tesla game we play (later on to include TSLA stock).

After having waited this long (1797, 1798, 1799, 1800...) I so do NOT want to have ANYTHING go wrong. I can wait a bit longer. Every day I wait after all, is another day that TSLA can increase in value. Every day that I wait Austin gets further along.

But...

I'm starting to get a bit impatient...

1801,
1802,
1803,
1804,
1805...








.

 

[ElMu]

In 2019 when Elon announced the Cybertruck, he hinted December 2020 as the date for the start of production. Now it really looks like the average buyer will have to wait until 2024. (Assuming no more delays) 2024 is a long ways away.

Very very Sadness!!

 

[Wpsinc]

the problem here is that Rivian is almost ready and GM and Ford will be before Tesla. people in need of a truck and still puzzled about CT's appearance will go for another brand at this point. this is no good news for us Tesla shareholders. As a future CT owner, however, I am ok with any delay that makes CT better.

That’s not a bad thing! Competition is great! … and give time for Tesla to catch up on its Service Department.

 

[chalupacabre]

SOURCE Sawyer Merritt on twitter:

The Cybertruck has been delayed to late 2022. "Production starting late 2022 and volume production in 2023". This is per a company wide conference call with employees.​

[Admin addendum: Elon did add this about the Cybertruck: "It will be a special project. Like a glitch in the Matrix. Like if Neo had a car."]









So there you have it folks. Volume production will begin in 2023. If you are 100,000 and above for your place in line, start thinking 2024, or later, the further down the list your spot is.

We'll know when we know. Till then it's all speculation. CT reservation numbers will have little relevance bcause cash is king! Plus Tesla will offer up the CT they can produce first. Look at new M3s today, ya take the MFP battery, delivery next week. Don't take the MFP battery, delivery next year.

 

[HaulingAss]

I can't be more specific. I'm trusting the opinions of others (esp. Sandy Munro).

It seems like for every good comment I hear (like yours), I hear another one slamming the Fremont paint quality. I'm hoping that Fremont does eventually get the same new paint shop that Berlin & Austin (maybe also Shanghai?) are now getting.

However, even if my paint phobia turns out to be ungrounded, that still leaves the front & back megacasting, as well as fit & finish fears.


=====


Way back when I was a bachelor I bought my first and so far only new vehicle, a Jeep TJ Wrangler. I wanted: Automatic Transmission, Air Conditioning AND a Hard Top, all in the same (Non-black-white-or-red) vehicle could not be found in ANY lot, so I placed a factory order (RARE in those days). That order seemed to take quite a while.

More recently, on October 6th, 2016 I heard that the Mitzubishi Outlander PHEV was having yet ANOTHER delay in coming to the U.S.. That was enough. I was fed up, and that very evening I placed my first Tesla reservation, for a Model 3. I've since had that reservation refunded, in favor of a Model Y and several CT reservations. So...

From 10/06/'16 to today is 1797 days AND counting that I have had some "skin" in this Tesla game we play (later on to include TSLA stock).

After having waited this long (1797, 1798, 1799, 1800...) I so do NOT want to have ANYTHING go wrong. I can wait a bit longer. Every day I wait after all, is another day that TSLA can increase in value. Every day that I wait Austin gets further along.

But...

I'm starting to get a bit impatient...

1801,
1802,
1803,
1804,
1805...

There's nothing wrong with waiting, especially if you aren't financially ready for a new vehicle purchase. It's not something that should be taken lightly with regards to personal finance. I would encourage people who want a Cybertruck but don't have the finances that can justify a new vehicle purchase to start saving up. It's amazing what can be accomplished by cutting out a few bucks here and there, a subscription, a new TV, some yard junk, etc.

But if you are hesitant because of quality fears I would suggest you are fearful of a shadow. Fear of real danger is a good thing to have while fear of imaginary problems can cripple forward progress. Tesla makes some of the highest quality cars on the planet. The early reports of quality problems were almost entirely minor fit issues and even more minor miniature paint blemishes that have mostly been long ironed out. Our two 2018's had zero issues, not even minor ones. While you can encounter a fit/finish issue on ANY new car, these are fixed under warranty. No one wants to have to do that but fortunately, they are becoming increasingly rare.

Here's the deal: The issues Tesla did have were blown FAR out of proportion by the Internet echo chamber and some bad actors working tirelessly to amplify any real issues that did exist. During that period I personally inspected 100's of new Model 3's fresh off the production line (before delivery prep) and I can tell you the paint issues were few and far between.

It would make more sense to miss your sister's wedding because you thought there was a chance the plane might crash.

 

[bdmridgeback]

Good thing I just went and bought a new 2021 Silverado Trail boss. Looks like this CT is going to be another Roadster tease for years to pass. When it comes it comes, until then maybe I'll buy a Silv-E-rado when they go to production, which may be before the CT.

 

[MEDICALJMP]

Sorry history is boring, medicaljump. ?

-Crissa

I love history. Just not all the griping. We have plenty of more pressing issues like chip shortages, stainless steel body part shaping, drive-by-wire, 4 wheel steering. Ya know, stuff that matters. ?

 

[Old Pro]

SOURCE Sawyer Merritt on twitter:

The Cybertruck has been delayed to late 2022. "Production starting late 2022 and volume production in 2023". This is per a company wide conference call with employees.​

[Admin addendum: Elon did add this about the Cybertruck: "It will be a special project. Like a glitch in the Matrix. Like if Neo had a car."]









So there you have it folks. Volume production will begin in 2023. If you are 100,000 and above for your place in line, start thinking 2024, or later, the further down the list your spot is.

Day #2 reservation, 2023 will be just in time for my 70th Birthday! The Cyber Truck will be my present to myself!

 

[intimidator]

Haha! No. That's not a problem. Rivian and Ford aren't going to make enough electric trucks by 2023 to matter. Tesla will sell every Cybertruck they make, as soon as they make it, for as far as the eye can see.

So I don't see the "problem" for Tesla shareholders. Because in the interim, Tesla is focusing on increasing production of Model Y in two new factories.

I think Tesla is a fantastic company...and they currently make some great models. But, Rivian, Ford, and GM are going to fight hard for a piece of the EV Truck market. And right now it is looking like the Cybertruck probably won't really ramp up until 2024. So there is a window of time were Rivian, Ford, etc can tap into consumers wanting an EV truck sooner than that.

Yes, Tesla will sell a ton of CTs...once they work out the final design hurdles and actually start making them. But I think Rivian will sell all they can make too.

 

[LDRHAWKE]

I think Tesla is a fantastic company...and they currently make some great models. But, Rivian, Ford, and GM are going to fight hard for a piece of the EV Truck market. And right now it is looking like the Cybertruck probably won't really ramp up until 2024. So there is a window of time were Rivian, Ford, etc can tap into consumers wanting an EV truck sooner than that.

Yes, Tesla will sell a ton of CTs...once they work out the final design hurdles and actually start making them. But I think Rivian will sell all they can make too.

One question…..where are any of these companies building manufacturing plants at the scale and speed of Tesla Giga plants that will allow them to complete ?

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