It’s official: HW3 will not be able to achieve unsupervised FSD.

[RandyS]

My HW3 Tesla (2023 Model 3) will run red lights on FSD occasionally (especially at night) if I am the lead car at an intersection. Many times while waiting, it will play the reminder sound that the light just turned green FOR THE CROSS TRAFFIC GREEN LIGHTS (which is why I think it occasionally runs red lights).

So I wouldn't recommend trying to run FSD very much on a HW3 car...

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[Pops]

In my experience, people who complain the most about how FSD is being developed don't have even the slightest idea of how insanely complex and difficult it is.

We are witnessing the horse and carriage being automated, and people are complaining that it's taking longer than expected. Stop being so pessimistic.

I feel the complaints are merited. I would argue its Elon Musk who clearly has no idea how complex and difficult it is. He keeps making promises that it is coming by the end of the year proprietorially for over a decade. Maybe if he understood the challenge he wouldn't keep misleading customers.

Self driving cars are amazing and have been a dream of society for generations. The progress already made is wonderful. Unfortunately it has been soured for many by the seemingly deceptive and manipulative tactics of Elon. All 100% real quotes:

• "Its coming by the end of the year" - every year since 2015.
• "Your Tesla car will earn you money"
• "If you buy a Tesla today, I believe you are buying an appreciating asset, not a depreciating asset "

 

[REM]

I feel the complaints are merited. I would argue its Elon Musk who clearly has no idea how complex and difficult it is. He keeps making promises that it is coming by the end of the year proprietorially for over a decade. Maybe if he understood the challenge he wouldn't keep misleading customers.

Self driving cars are amazing and have been a dream of society for generations. The progress already made is wonderful. Unfortunately it has been soured for many by the seemingly deceptive and manipulative tactics of Elon. All 100% real quotes:

• "Its coming by the end of the year" - every year since 2015.
• "Your Tesla car will earn you money"
• "If you buy a Tesla today, I believe you are buying an appreciating asset, not a depreciating asset "

Elon hasn't made a single promise to anyone about the timelines for unsupervised autonomy.

Also, I'm sure the literal Chief Engineer of SpaceX can conceptualize the development of this program.

 

[Pops]

Elon hasn't made a single promise to anyone about the timelines for unsupervised autonomy.

I am not sure how to respond to this. It has to be the easiest statement to disprove I have seen in a while. Musk has consistently promised unsupervised FSD with rough timelines. I am sure you can get into the semantics of what constitutes a promise, but to put plainly, he keeps saying its coming soon... and it doesnt.

 

[Cybertruck2024]

Interestingly, Tesla sent me an unrequested email for a trade-in offer on my 2021 M3P that is $3,700 more today, than one from early March. I got the original trade-in offer when they were giving FSD transfers, but stopped shopping when they added the "take delivery by the end of the month" term that was impossible to guarantee. If they didn't add this stipulation, I was 99% going to buy a new Tesla. Their loss I suppose.

I wonder if this $3,700 is in response to the recent comments? If so, the offer stinks. That's not even enough to cover the cost of FSD for the life of ownership of a new vehicle, and that's assuming FSD price doesn't increase. Not to mention I paid $10k for a service that I haven't gotten yet, so the fair monetary value to reimburse me would be $10k + interest/inflation.

At this point, I am almost certainly going to keep the M3P until Tesla needs to upgrade it. Between the bullshit sneaky conditions on the FSD transfer and the mockery of what appears to be their monetary compensation for my $10k unfulfilled promise, I will make Tesla upgrade me out of spite at this point.

 

[mrcarcrazy]

I traded my 2019 model 3 performance in on the Cybertruck due to the FSD transfer option.

I knew there was a zero % chance the HW3 would ever see true FSD without a total replacement of critical components and at the rate Tesla does things like this I figured the car would have 200k on it by that time.

I had to compromise (2 vs 3 motor) on the truck I bought in order to meet the “deliver by 3/31” stuff but I’m very happy with the truck I have.

 

[REM]

I am not sure how to respond to this. It has to be the easiest statement to disprove I have seen in a while. Musk has consistently promised unsupervised FSD with rough timelines. I am sure you can get into the semantics of what constitutes a promise, but to put plainly, he keeps saying its coming soon... and it doesnt.

Oh no, Tesla and SpaceX teams have only been slightly behind Elon's insanely aggressive, world changing apirational timelines... Woe to us all.

 

[REM]

Interestingly, Tesla sent me an unrequested email for a trade-in offer on my 2021 M3P that is $3,700 more today, than one from early March.

That was Tesla's auto-bidder Ai that sent you the email. They are trying to chip away at trade-ins to tease out true market value. I keep trying to tell people that the lifeblood of their company is accurate telemetry lol.

 

[Sjohnson20]

I'm not surprised. My HW3 car has been on 12.6.4 since January of 2025. Hopefully this V14 lite comes this year. I would like to have some of the V15 features like reverse and the start fsd button on the screen.

 

[vandytom]

I’ve always known that Tesla needed more than those grainy ass pixelated images for god vision. HW4 is close but more pixels always better. Now they’re saying HW4+ WTF. Upgrades better be discounted else big lawsuit coming.

 

[YDR37]

I’ve always known that Tesla needed more than those grainy ass pixelated images for god vision. HW4 is close but more pixels always better. Now they’re saying HW4+ WTF.

As far as we know, the new "AI4+" won't have different cameras or more pixels. Apparently the advantage with AI4+ is that it will be significantly faster at processing the pixels:

Alongside the doubling of memory, the new hardware revision will offer a 10 percent increase in overall compute power and a 10 percent increase in memory bandwidth.

While a 10 percent bump in raw compute may seem modest compared to full generational leaps, the increased memory bandwidth is highly impactful. It allows the vehicle to transfer the dense data coming from the high-resolution camera suite into the neural net processor much faster, reducing system latency and improving the vehicle's reaction times.

So AI4+ should offer improved self-driving, even if the cameras are the same.

Upgrades better be discounted else big lawsuit coming.

AI4+ will likely offer optimal performance. However, according to the earnings call, unsupervised FSD will still run on AI4 with "better than human" safety. So there is no requirement to upgrade from AI4.

Elon Musk — Chief Executive Officer
And we have a whole pipeline of major improvements to full self-driving that, we believe, will lead to unsupervised full self-driving being available anywhere in the world that it is legal to do so. And then there’s a version 15, hopefully later this — hopefully by the end of this year, but certainly by early next year. And that will be a complete overhaul of the software architecture, and will run on AI4. That’s — and at that point, we’re really just increasing the safety level of FSD above human safety level, even more, meaning I think, even within version 14, we’re significantly safer than human, but v15 will take that to another level.

 

[jimbobb23]

I thought this was already official. I also wouldn't be surprised if we are having this same conversion about AI4 in 3 years for universal unsupervised. It may be possible for some localized models to be unsupervised (as we see in Austin) but I don't think it can handle a universal model that can be used everywhere. I think AI5 can (or at least country specific models). AI4 wasn't designed with modern AI models in mind. AI5 is the first chip specifically designed for the AI technique that Tesla is actually using.

 

[eswimm]

As a prior AP2 2016 Model X P100D owner, I already went through the upgrade to the HW3 computer (done when I upgraded to MCU 2) and camera upgrade (done when they released FSD Beta wide).

I don't imagine the process will be quick due to the much larger number of HW3 vehicles on the road, but I don't see any reason why Tesla can't do it at a larger scale now. As far as micro factories, all they need to do is setup a mobile tent service fleet and rent out a parking lot somewhere for a few weeks/months in high Tesla density areas and refer less dense areas to the SC.

I don't see this as a sky is falling scenario, I have no doubt Tesla can execute on the upgrade. Of course, they'd much prefer you just buy a new vehicle.

 

[jimbobb23]

OK, so the outlook is still somewhat cloudy for HW3. But on a more positive note, the 1Q 2026 earnings call indicated that unsupervised FSD will "probably" start rolling out to customer AI4 vehicles in "the fourth quarter".

So just six to eight months from now. Sounds like some areas will get it sooner than others; it won't happen everywhere all at once.

They have no idea. Last year Musk knew the full timeline of models in the pipeline (14, 15, etc) and said that they would have thousands of Robotaxis. But now he says we are waiting for 15. No timeline Musk mentions is even worth considering....it happens when it happens. It will all happen but it never happens when he says it will.

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