👷‍♂️ Tesla plans for 375K Cybertruck annual production (at least) and have first release candidates by late August! [supplier news 6/8/23]

[Cyberostachu]

That puts my delivery date to '24-'25. I'll be well into my 80s. Iwonder if I will be able to climb into the front seat

You should add exercise, if it's not already a part of your daily routine, so that you can climb into your new CT without issues.

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[Setok]

I think everyone is missing something important here. When you order parts from a supplier, you over-order to cover warranty replacements and general spare parts needs. We used to factor 1.3X–1.5X. At an estimated annual rate of 250K Cybertrucks, that would result in exactly 375K parts order expectation.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

The limitation this year is the presses. That's why Elon stated 250,000. Per Idra and the cycle time of 2 min on the presses it comes out to about 250,000 . Maybe they were able to increase that. Also note that Elon gave an increment of 250,000 indicating that if they had 2 additional presses they could make another 250,000k. My guess is that its more likely Tesla is wisely adding some fluff to the first year demand to make sure suppliers are prepared as they ramp up. No one building anything in production would ask a supplier to provide the exact amount they intend to produce. there is always waste factor, and some fluff for issues.

They have 2 9K gigapresses at GigaAustin as we speak. In a year's time, if they have the room, they could have 2 more easily. But they would probably need at least a second manufacturing line and that would mean a LOT more equipment, etc. It is likely that they will start at ramping to a run rate of 250K and ramp up from there as they build out more lines.

 

[anionic1]

I'm pretty sure it will not be in the luxury class and I say this because of the numbers. There were 66k Model S&X sold last year and 1.2MM 3&Ys. They're targeting 375k units annually which is closer to the 'mass market' (for lack of better term) vehicles than the luxury vehicles. But . . . . I have been wrong before

I hope you are right.

They have 2 9K gigapresses at GigaAustin as we speak. In a year's time, if they have the room, they could have 2 more easily. But they would probably need at least a second manufacturing line and that would mean a LOT more equipment, etc. It is likely that they will start at ramping to a run rate of 250K and ramp up from there as they build out more lines.

What makes you believe the Idra can just crank out two more 9k giga presses? It took 3 years to get the first two.

 

[madquadbiker]

I am 65 with my reservation from 6/22. I am right there with you.

But surely FSD with be fully operational by then

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

….and if it’s too high above the 2019 announced prices (which were very low by todays standards) we will probably see many canceling their initial order and this will move many others up on the list.

One can hope

Getting more excited...does this mean I may be driving one this year?

Cybertruck Reservation number began at 112744100

My RN is 112755347
I am 11,247 in line...

maybe. Good luck!

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

I hope you are right.

What makes you believe the Idra can just crank out two more 9k giga presses? It took 3 years to get the first two.

I do not know when the initial order was made. We know when IDRA announced that Tesla had ordered an 8KT GP but sometime later they announced they had built a 9KT GP (and the design time would have disrupted manufacturing somewhat), and about 9 months later it was in Texas. I suspect it depends more on how many GPs they have ordered by the various customers, but it is likely that Tesla queued up orders for more than 2 when they made their initial order. So I think that IDRA 'can' (just) crank out GPs; that is their entire business.

 

[Flaskman]

But surely FSD with be fully operational by then

I am betting on it. Ford and now GM using the superchargers? You can bet they will use Tesla FSD. Great time to own Tesla stock and hold. By the time I get my CT call it will be paid for through holding Tesla stock. Made 10 grand on it just this week. Go Elon !!

 

[No-mo-ice]

Supplier communication/report would seem pretty solid info to rely on so this is an exciting base volume production we're seeing Tesla telling suppliers to plan for!

Tesla plans for 375,000 Cybertrucks per year, will have release candidates by late August

Source: https://electrek.co/2023/06/08/tesla-plans-375000-cybertrucks-per-year-release-candidates-late-august/

Now, Electrek gets more details through communications that Tesla sent to suppliers for the Cybertruck program, which it calls “Project Everest,” internally and with suppliers.​

​

Tesla has asked suppliers to plan to meet a base production volume of 375,000 Cybertrucks per year. For a base volume, it seems to be a bit more aggressive than what Musk communicated publicly at Tesla’s annual shareholder’s meeting, but Tesla has been frequently adjusting to target.​

​

Earlier this year, it was about 100,000 units lower. Also, the number is planned for the production lines running at 85% efficiency. We also got some details on Cybertruck’s timeline for production.​

​

According to communications to suppliers, Tesla is planning to have its first Cybertruck release candidates at the end of August.​

​

Release candidates are built on the production line and are the last step before official start of production. Based on the current timeline, the official start of production is planned for early October.​

​

It points to Tesla’s delivery event being only for employees and Tesla insiders, like it was for Tesla’s latest vehicle program to launch, the Model Y.​

I’ll Believe it when I see it. I wonder when we get to see the pricing and when we get to configure them bad boys.

 

[Kahpernicus]

I hope you are right.

What makes you believe the Idra can just crank out two more 9k giga presses? It took 3 years to get the first two.

Tesla can just make a new press with the existing presses.

 

[Throwcomputer]

I am 65 with my reservation from 6/22. I am right there with you.

Im right near you in reservation date.. not age. I'm thinking it means we're probably look at anywhere between 2.5-3.5 years from start of delivery. Unless there are really a ton of vapor reservations. then we are closer.

 

[Flaskman]

Im right near you in reservation date.. not age. I'm thinking it means we're probably look at anywhere between 2.5-3.5 years from start of delivery. Unless there are really a ton of vapor reservations. then we are closer.

That would totally stink. My 127000 mile Pilot may not last that long.

 

[Rutrow]

Nevera

 

[pierre]

I think Elon will surprise many. He may increase the cost of the truck a little to offset unanticipated costs known at reveal, but I think he's a man of the people. I believe he knows that going " FoMoCo Lightning crazy " won't bid well for his reputation. He has shown he's not afraid to lose money (Twitter) doing the right thing. Keepin fingers crossed.

I hope you’re right. High volume, lower margins will serve his loyal fan base well.
If RoboTaxis are truly around the corner, Tesla will profit from a Razor and Blade business model which means the lower sales margins/higher volume of sales will still yield more profit in the long run (post robotaxi release)
I think, how well Tesla commits to an affordable price could be a reflection of Elon’s confidence in RoboTaxi’s pending success.

 

[WHIZZARD OF OZ]

Wow. I most definitely need to start making space in the garage. This is feeling very much like a Q1 delivery for us (~49k in line +/-).

Wishing and hoping Santa Brings my CYBERTRUCK DownUnder any Christmas before the end of 2026. Sitting with res around 75K..... patiently!

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