Sure it did! The i3, the Bolt... Very similar companions to the Model 3 as the Rivian and the Lightning.
The Bolt, sure. The Leaf, maybe. The I3 didn’t have enough range for much of anything and was more expensive as well.
How do you arrive at the 40-60% attrition figure, other than from those who placed multiple orders and assuming all but one may be canceled? I don't know, but perhaps one can reassign an unwanted duplicate order? I don't know. Please tell us how you arrived at that figure, otherwise it is mere speculation ranking about as those predictors of Tesla going belly up. Are you using an algorithm of some sort? Sure, some attrition, but I don't see anywhere near 40-60%., but then my call is strictly speculation and with no evidence to support it. Just my opinion. What about yours? My WAG (wild assed guess) would be around maybe a 10% attrition, and if permitted, there would be a slew of would be buyers ready to step in and take those positions. Just my 2 cents is all. I'm no expert, and not even a rank amateur here. Just expressing my opinion. Also, and this is mere speculation, I have a hunch that Elon may well produce the tri-motor and dual motor versions simultaneously due to their similar popularity in order to keep the customer base serviced and satisfied. He could even drop the single motor version altogether and give buyers the option to upgrade while keeping their place in line. If there is going to be any appreciable attrition, I would expect it to be from the single motor version buyers in such a scenario, but then again, what do I know? Elon hasn't consulted with me yet, but they did put a supercharging station right where I suggested years ago. Does make me wonder if they actually listen or it was just a lucky guess on my part. Either way, it is a prime location that wasn't on the map before. Guess I'll have to wait till I get to heaven to find out the answer to that one! It will definitely be the very first question that I ask God if Saint Peter doesn't clue me in at the Pearly Gates!
it's a complete guess.
Everything about Cybertruck reservation estimates is a complete guess based on supposition and a single number which nobody outside Tesla really seems to understand. Maybe it just increases randomly each time someone orders one.
I am with you. I bought a Y because I figured at least 2 years for delivery of CT. I figured late 2021 delivery for the Y. I picked it up Sept 19 last year and am happy with it.
Don't despair! Hang tough! If the economy goes into a slump, you may get a phone call next year or early 2023 asking you if you still want YOUR CT! Have cash available! That's what happened to me with the model Y I ordered in April 2020. I figured delivery in Sept 2021. I picked it up in Sept 2020. I had to "scratch a lil", but was still able to pay cash. I am easily 1/3 of the way affording a CT trimotor right now. If it became available in Sept 2022, I'd have to "sell a lil Tesla stock" to avoid borrowing (maybe).
I know this forum is not representative, but I keep hearing this story. I bet there are a lot of people who bought a Model Y or Model 3 while waiting on a Cybertruck. Sounds like you and I both hit that magic window when the price of the Model Y AWD was at it’s lowest.
