1.4 MILLION Reservations for the Cybertruck, and Counting!!!

[jerhenderson]

I expect order retention to be high for the simple reason there's nothing else comparable.

 

[Crissa]

The Model 3 didn’t have the introduction of so many interesting competing products during it’s launch.

Sure it did! The i3, the Bolt... Very similar companions to the Model 3 as the Rivian and the Lightning.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

Sure it did! The i3, the Bolt... Very similar companions to the Model 3 as the Rivian and the Lightning.

The Bolt, sure. The Leaf, maybe. The I3 didn’t have enough range for much of anything and was more expensive as well.

Mostly, the Tesla was the much nicer car with much more range and better performance for more money. With the trucks, the Cybertruck is right in the mix price wise. Once all three Cybertrucks are launched, Tesla will have even the lowest price levels covered.

Of course Tesla still kicks ass on range.

 

[drscot]

You’re not factoring in order attrition, probably 40-60 percent of orders will cancel. Also, trimodels will likely be produced first so your reservation number is not the only driver of delivery timeline.

How do you arrive at the 40-60% attrition figure, other than from those who placed multiple orders and assuming all but one may be canceled? I don't know, but perhaps one can reassign an unwanted duplicate order? I don't know. Please tell us how you arrived at that figure, otherwise it is mere speculation ranking about as those predictors of Tesla going belly up. Are you using an algorithm of some sort? Sure, some attrition, but I don't see anywhere near 40-60%., but then my call is strictly speculation and with no evidence to support it. Just my opinion. What about yours? My WAG (wild assed guess) would be around maybe a 10% attrition, and if permitted, there would be a slew of would be buyers ready to step in and take those positions. Just my 2 cents is all. I'm no expert, and not even a rank amateur here. Just expressing my opinion. Also, and this is mere speculation, I have a hunch that Elon may well produce the tri-motor and dual motor versions simultaneously due to their similar popularity in order to keep the customer base serviced and satisfied. He could even drop the single motor version altogether and give buyers the option to upgrade while keeping their place in line. If there is going to be any appreciable attrition, I would expect it to be from the single motor version buyers in such a scenario, but then again, what do I know? Elon hasn't consulted with me yet, but they did put a supercharging station right where I suggested years ago. Does make me wonder if they actually listen or it was just a lucky guess on my part. Either way, it is a prime location that wasn't on the map before. Guess I'll have to wait till I get to heaven to find out the answer to that one! It will definitely be the very first question that I ask God if Saint Peter doesn't clue me in at the Pearly Gates!

 

[drscot]

The Bolt, sure. The Leaf, maybe. The I3 didn’t have enough range for much of anything and was more expensive as well.

Mostly, the Tesla was the much nicer car with much more range and better performance for more money. With the trucks, the Cybertruck is right in the mix price wise. Once all three Cybertrucks are launched, Tesla will have even the lowest price levels covered.

Of course Tesla still kicks ass on range.

Not only that, but Tesla's infrastructure puts all the others combined to shame. No contest.

 

[drscot]

Tesla will not allow you to sell your spot.

Do you have any idea how those spots are managed then? Are they just "collapsed" so to speak?

 

[jerhenderson]

How do you arrive at the 40-60% attrition figure, other than from those who placed multiple orders and assuming all but one may be canceled? I don't know, but perhaps one can reassign an unwanted duplicate order? I don't know. Please tell us how you arrived at that figure, otherwise it is mere speculation ranking about as those predictors of Tesla going belly up. Are you using an algorithm of some sort? Sure, some attrition, but I don't see anywhere near 40-60%., but then my call is strictly speculation and with no evidence to support it. Just my opinion. What about yours? My WAG (wild assed guess) would be around maybe a 10% attrition, and if permitted, there would be a slew of would be buyers ready to step in and take those positions. Just my 2 cents is all. I'm no expert, and not even a rank amateur here. Just expressing my opinion. Also, and this is mere speculation, I have a hunch that Elon may well produce the tri-motor and dual motor versions simultaneously due to their similar popularity in order to keep the customer base serviced and satisfied. He could even drop the single motor version altogether and give buyers the option to upgrade while keeping their place in line. If there is going to be any appreciable attrition, I would expect it to be from the single motor version buyers in such a scenario, but then again, what do I know? Elon hasn't consulted with me yet, but they did put a supercharging station right where I suggested years ago. Does make me wonder if they actually listen or it was just a lucky guess on my part. Either way, it is a prime location that wasn't on the map before. Guess I'll have to wait till I get to heaven to find out the answer to that one! It will definitely be the very first question that I ask God if Saint Peter doesn't clue me in at the Pearly Gates!

it's a complete guess.

 

[Ogre]

it's a complete guess.

Everything about Cybertruck reservation estimates is a complete guess based on supposition and a single number which nobody outside Tesla really seems to understand. Maybe it just increases randomly each time someone orders one.

We know there are at least half a million reservations. It's likely as many as a million. Beyond that? Everyone takes the RN number subtracts the base number multiplies by a magic number and some guesswork, and invents a number. The result doesn't meet your gut feeling? Maybe just increase your magic number a bit as a sanity check.

 

[drscot]

it's a complete guess.

A WAG, like my 10% figure! At least we agree on something!

 

[Crissa]

Well, it's not entirely a magic number, at least a much as we can guess how many outstanding solar and energy installs there are (in the low tens of thousands perhaps, there have been hints here and there) and we know how many cars Tesla has sold since the Cybertruck was launched (so we can deduct those directly).

And we know when Elon said they stopped looking at the number 'several hundred thousand'.

-Crissa

 

[Hunter71294]

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/21/new-demand-may-be-slipping-for-tesla-model-3-early-orders.html

24% of Model 3 reservations were cancelled. I would bet on that number being higher for the CT. It only required $100 for the reservation which is much easier to swing for people that might have wanted one. Also most people aren't going to wait 5 years, by then there might even be the 2nd gen. I'm also over 1mil so I'm being hopeful

 

[Crissa]

Yep, Demand for Model 3 was slipping.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesm...l-3-is-now-16th-bestselling-car-in-the-world/

-Crissa

 

[TECHNOMAGE]

According to the site I am number 350,917 in line and my estimated delivery date is 5/26/2023.
That's close to a two year wait. That will allow me to accrue about 20K for my down payment.
I can hang even if my little Nissan van craps out (just turned 100,000 miles). I'll buy a beater if I have to rather than taking on another vehicle payment.
I will be 69 years old if I live to pick it up and there is nothing out there I would buy in place of the CT.

I am with you. I bought a Y because I figured at least 2 years for delivery of CT. I figured late 2021 delivery for the Y. I picked it up Sept 19 last year and am happy with it.
Paid cash because I saved for a long time and couldn't find anything from Detroit etc.
that impressed me. When Sandy Munro took apart a Model Y, I decided it was good enuff for my purposes. I haven't regretted that decision. Of course newer model Y's have improvements which they always will.

In mid Covid Tesla dropped the price of the dual motor Y by $3K, so I stopped procrastinating. I was hoping for a higher SN (to allow Tesla more debugging time in production). SN was a lil over 30,000. A friend of mine in NC ordered his (all stock) white dual motor three weeks before I picked mine up. He picked his up 5 days later in Raleigh NC.

The Tesla "order confirming lady" called me in June and asked me if I still wanted it. I said YES! She acted like lots of people were cancelling or deferring to a later date.
I did order with a factory installed trailer hitch ($1000) because I wanted any lil trailer towing details to be worked out by Tesla engineers vs aftermarket ones.
As of now delivery dates have stretched way out.

By the time my turn comes up for the trimotor, I should have the jing to pay cash.
I ordered a dual motor (about 50,000 lower order number than the trimotor). If Tesla delivers the dual motor first, I'll, take that. I am betting the trimotor will be the "first out the door in quantity" .
I want to see Sandy Munro take one apart so I can see if the early ones have any "foibles" that I don't like. I am betting Elon Musk and his team will make sure Sandy Munro (critical curmudgeon) will be mostly impressed.

A thought: Trucks with "million mile batteries and powertrains" need SS body parts to last at least as long. Plain ol steel trucks are a waste because they may rust out and wear engine and transmission out around the same time (150,000mi if you are lucky and maybe 300,000mi if you buy right and replace lots of parts).

The whole idea of a vehicle with MINIMAL CONSUMABLE PARTS for a decent price appeals to me not even counting all the other features!

Let us all have good luck!

 

[TECHNOMAGE]

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/21/new-demand-may-be-slipping-for-tesla-model-3-early-orders.html

24% of Model 3 reservations were cancelled. I would bet on that number being higher for the CT. It only required $100 for the reservation which is much easier to swing for people that might have wanted one. Also most people aren't going to wait 5 years, by then there might even be the 2nd gen. I'm also over 1mil so I'm being hopeful

Don't despair! Hang tough! If the economy goes into a slump, you may get a phone call next year or early 2023 asking you if you still want YOUR CT! Have cash available! That's what happened to me with the model Y I ordered in April 2020. I figured delivery in Sept 2021. I picked it up in Sept 2020. I had to "scratch a lil", but was still able to pay cash. I am easily 1/3 of the way affording a CT trimotor right now. If it became available in Sept 2022, I'd have to "sell a lil Tesla stock" to avoid borrowing (maybe).
I don't want an early SN! I also want to see what Sandy Munro says as he "picks one apart".

A friend of mine in NC picked up his Y 5 days later (he ordered in mid-August 2020).

There are a whole bunch of "numb in the noggin" buyrers who will likely have trouble financing (or their mommy doesn't like the looks of the CT) so they will drop out. I ordered a dual motor and a tri-motor. I'll take whichever is available first. My wife doesn't like the CT looks, but it will be MY toy! She has a Honda CRV. The lil 2016 Honda CRV was 2/3 the price of my model Y minus trailer hitch! Those lil roller skates are esspensive!-

 

[Ogre]

I am with you. I bought a Y because I figured at least 2 years for delivery of CT. I figured late 2021 delivery for the Y. I picked it up Sept 19 last year and am happy with it.
Paid cash because I saved for a long time and couldn't find anything from Detroit etc.

I know this forum is not representative, but I keep hearing this story. I bet there are a lot of people who bought a Model Y or Model 3 while waiting on a Cybertruck. Sounds like you and I both hit that magic window when the price of the Model Y AWD was at it’s lowest.

Owning the Model Y only makes me want the Cybertruck more.