1.4 MILLION Reservations for the Cybertruck, and Counting!!!

MEDICALJMP

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I estimated that they would not even begin production until September 2023, so any time they start before that is just icing on my Cybertruck cake. And at 428,000 in line it can't come fast enough.

I do feel that once they work out the production kinks inevitable at the start of any new vehicle they will be cranking out 200,000 plus a year (unless chip shortages remain a thing). :unsure:
 

Bkent100

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How do you arrive at the 40-60% attrition figure, other than from those who placed multiple orders and assuming all but one may be canceled? I don't know, but perhaps one can reassign an unwanted duplicate order? I don't know. Please tell us how you arrived at that figure, otherwise it is mere speculation ranking about as those predictors of Tesla going belly up. Are you using an algorithm of some sort? Sure, some attrition, but I don't see anywhere near 40-60%., but then my call is strictly speculation and with no evidence to support it. Just my opinion. What about yours? My WAG (wild assed guess) would be around maybe a 10% attrition, and if permitted, there would be a slew of would be buyers ready to step in and take those positions. Just my 2 cents is all. I'm no expert, and not even a rank amateur here. Just expressing my opinion. Also, and this is mere speculation, I have a hunch that Elon may well produce the tri-motor and dual motor versions simultaneously due to their similar popularity in order to keep the customer base serviced and satisfied. He could even drop the single motor version altogether and give buyers the option to upgrade while keeping their place in line. If there is going to be any appreciable attrition, I would expect it to be from the single motor version buyers in such a scenario, but then again, what do I know? Elon hasn't consulted with me yet, but they did put a supercharging station right where I suggested years ago. Does make me wonder if they actually listen or it was just a lucky guess on my part. Either way, it is a prime location that wasn't on the map before. Guess I'll have to wait till I get to heaven to find out the answer to that one! It will definitely be the very first question that I ask God if Saint Peter doesn't clue me in at the Pearly Gates!
Yes, as others have indicated… anything is a swag at this point. My reasons for suggesting that % are
1. Tesla likely won’t build the single model, there is 7%.
2. One of the cars had a 24% attrition rate with a much higher deposit requirement… so count on 24%
3.I would estimate at least 10-15 % of people put down deposits on the Ford and Rivian vehicles as well and will buy the first one produced.
4. Given that 250000 people ordered within 2-3 days of the presentation, I would estimate a high level of impulse purchases, likely resulting in failed financing or leasing purchases. Likely another 5-10 % pop.

there’s my case, completely devoid of facts, opinion only.
 

jerhenderson

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Everything about Cybertruck reservation estimates is a complete guess based on supposition and a single number which nobody outside Tesla really seems to understand. Maybe it just increases randomly each time someone orders one.

We know there are at least half a million reservations. It's likely as many as a million. Beyond that? Everyone takes the RN number subtracts the base number multiplies by a magic number and some guesswork, and invents a number. The result doesn't meet your gut feeling? Maybe just increase your magic number a bit as a sanity check.
plus the CT tracker wasn't a Tesla site so it adds more variability to what the numbers really mean.
 

jerhenderson

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Yes, as others have indicated… anything is a swag at this point. My reasons for suggesting that % are
1. Tesla likely won’t build the single model, there is 7%.
2. One of the cars had a 24% attrition rate with a much higher deposit requirement… so count on 24%
3.I would estimate at least 10-15 % of people put down deposits on the Ford and Rivian vehicles as well and will buy the first one produced.
4. Given that 250000 people ordered within 2-3 days of the presentation, I would estimate a high level of impulse purchases, likely resulting in failed financing or leasing purchases. Likely another 5-10 % pop.

there’s my case, completely devoid of facts, opinion only.
My response would be:

1) without a single option many will upgrade to the double.
2) this is the first real truck option with superior specs - if you need a truck you won't opt for a car.
3)CT specs are better than both other choices so canceling will be low.
4) it was the Tesla truck and many people...including me..... were waiting for it. it wasn't impulse - I was like 'thank god finally.'
 

Quicksilver

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If they decide not to produce the single motor they may lose some buyers but I reserved a two motor and if they don't move me up in the line and I have my target downpayment I will prob upgrade to the trimotor just for shits and grins.
This will be my last vehicle purchase and I'm going to make it a doozy.
If they do come with a million mile battery it is entirely possible one of my grandkids will be driving the Cybertruck as his/her first vehicle in 15 years.
 

Bkent100

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My response would be:

1) without a single option many will upgrade to the double.
2) this is the first real truck option with superior specs - if you need a truck you won't opt for a car.
3)CT specs are better than both other choices so canceling will be low.
4) it was the Tesla truck and many people...including me..... were waiting for it. it wasn't impulse - I was like 'thank god finally.'
Well, let’s hope I’m right and you’re wrong… well both get our trucks more quickly.
 

Crissa

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While many were impulse, that was years ago, and most of the people who were in the know would have been highly motivated, more likely to be higher income. It's not like it was bouncing through college campuses.

-Crissa
 

drscot

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Yes, as others have indicated… anything is a swag at this point. My reasons for suggesting that % are
1. Tesla likely won’t build the single model, there is 7%.
2. One of the cars had a 24% attrition rate with a much higher deposit requirement… so count on 24%
3.I would estimate at least 10-15 % of people put down deposits on the Ford and Rivian vehicles as well and will buy the first one produced.
4. Given that 250000 people ordered within 2-3 days of the presentation, I would estimate a high level of impulse purchases, likely resulting in failed financing or leasing purchases. Likely another 5-10 % pop.

there’s my case, completely devoid of facts, opinion only.
But you might be spot on correct; I'll grant you that, but I'll bet it will wind up somewhere between your estimate and mine of 10%. Would you care to wager a steak dinner? I'm going to guess those single motor wishers will upgrade to a dual motor for just the 10k difference. Myself, I would have gone with the tri-motor had it been just another 10k, but I couldn't justify that 20k price hike.
 

drscot

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Well, it's not entirely a magic number, at least a much as we can guess how many outstanding solar and energy installs there are (in the low tens of thousands perhaps, there have been hints here and there) and we know how many cars Tesla has sold since the Cybertruck was launched (so we can deduct those directly).

And we know when Elon said they stopped looking at the number 'several hundred thousand'.

-Crissa
I may concede to you about the solar array, Crissa. I was just going by what was written that Elon himself had said, but now it appears some new life may have been breathed into the concept. Like everything else, time will tell. Guessing the probable cost, it isn't worth it to me when I will be able to plug in to my solar array at home (once it is installed, up and running).
 

DaGeek

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Is it just my imagination or has the verbiage changed on the Tesla order now page?

"Fully refundable. You will be able to complete your configuration as production nears in 2022."
 

Ogre

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Is it just my imagination or has the verbiage changed on the Tesla order now page?

"Fully refundable. You will be able to complete your configuration as production nears in 2022."
That just changed within the past couple of weeks. Maybe the past couple of days.

"2022" Ominously devoid of any further clarification. Not even "Beginning of Year".
 
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Youaregoldone

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Recent updates showed that the Cybertruck Pre-orders have reached almost an astonishing One Million and a half. That means that if Tesla increases its EV production by 100%, reaching 1 Million vehicles per year, it shall still divide production into 4 SEXY models + Semi, and finally the Cybertruck. So, being generous and assuming Tesla produces a quarter million CTs per year...It would take 6 years for the "Nubies" Cybertrukkers to get served. High five for us early birders, who were in love at first sight with this beautiful real life Toy-Robo-truck.
:love::sneaky:(y):cool:
 

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