2025 CyberTruck individual order that actually received the $7.5k tax credit/rebate ?

[mongo]

No CTs qualify unless Tesla files for it.

Which they have done (at least in part) which is why Cybertruck 2025 is listed on FuelEconomy.gov

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[cbr1000]

You understand that the answer you received gives no additional context. No CTs qualify unless Tesla files for it. Why they haven't is the guess; paperwork, 2024 models, battery issues, etc. all just guesses.

Tesla has filed for for 2025 Cybertruck. It was also approved as it's listed as qualifying on IRS website for point of sale only.

 

[SCTesla]

Which they have done (at least in part) which is why Cybertruck 2025 is listed on FuelEconomy.gov

They haven't started the process of filing for each vehicle. That's what I meant. The M3 was listed far before it was available to customers.

 

[mongo]

They haven't started the process of filing for each vehicle. That's what I meant. The M3 was listed far before it was available to customers.

Ah! Yeah, each sale/delivery needs to be submitted though the portal. And they aren't doing that.?

 

[YDR37]

You understand that the answer you received gives no additional context. No CTs qualify unless Tesla files for it. Why they haven't is the guess; paperwork, 2024 models, battery issues, etc. all just guesses.

Paperwork, 2024s, or battery issues (or some combination) do seem like the most plausible guesses. But yes, they are all guesses.

In support of the 2024 theory, check out Tesla's numbers for 2024 global production and deliveries:

For the inexpensive models (3/Y), Tesla delivered more than they produced during 2024. So no reason to suspect excess 2024 inventory. It's true that Tesla is currently offering discounts on the Model Y, but this is presumably just because they want to clear out old-style MYs in advance of the upcoming "Juniper" refresh.

But for the expensive "Other Models" (S, X, CT), Tesla produced more than they delivered, by about 9,000 vehicles, or around 10%. We don't know how to divide this surplus up between the three models. But if there was a mismatch between supply and demand, it most likely affected the CT, because it was brand new in 2024, so Tesla had to make some guesses about the potential demand. In contrast, Models S/X have been sold for many years, so Tesla should have a pretty good understanding of S/X demand by now.

So Tesla's numbers suggest that there could be thousands of unsold expensive 2024 Teslas still in inventory. And it seems possible that the CT could be more affected than the S/X.

 

[MrHayabusa]

So - a side update, for anyone that cares. Working with my Tesla advisor on the app about my Cybertruck order, they indicated I could try the lease. In order to get the terms and conditions, I would have to apply for the lease (with the lease you can get the $7.5k up front off). So, I applied, which was easy, through the app.

After I applied, I can see the amount of money I will owe up front and each month. But that is really it. I have no idea what the terms are if I pay off early, if I can even purchase the truck outright now or later, or anything. When I asked the rep, he indicated that I have to do the final agreement to the lease (which I can't undo), and that within 24 hours of the time/date of delivery, I would receive the terms and conditions.

WTF?!?!? WHY? Why do I have 24 hours or less to read through whatever terms the lease has??? What happens if I say no? What are the penalties? NO IDEA.

This is not great ... I don't 100% blame Tesla, I know President Trump made an Executive Order on Monday requesting the $7.5k tax credit go away (which I realize Congress has to do something about that) ... but this is a mess. I know it isn't the Tesla Rep's fault, but IMHO this is unacceptable. I really should be able to know the complete terms and conditions before I hit the "Confirm" button on the app for the lease ... (applying for the lease was fine - there was a credit check, but that was it)

I feel this really can't be legal? Ugh. Overall been really disgusted with this purchasing experience....

I know when the incentives were going back and forth a few years ago, Tesla offered to give partial incentives themselves directly to customers. I feel if Tesla's mission really is to "increase EV adoption", they should try to do something to help customers a bit. Doesn't have to be the entire incentive, but something?

 

[pricedm]

"... I have no idea what the terms are if I pay off early..."

In your MVPA.

 

[Gritted Cybe]

You can see the buy out price when you configure the lease in the beginning of configuring the truck. I did the math, seems like you'll actually be paying a bit more (due to lease interest , I believe) then buying it out right.

 

[MrHayabusa]

but I can't get my MVPA until I hit Confirm for the Lease ... and I guess I could back out of the Lease agreement the day I take delivery if I don't like the terms and conditions for the lease? But I don't know if there is any penalty to that? I think confirming I want the Lease without knowing all of the T&C is just wrong.

 

[MrHayabusa]

You can see the buy out price when you configure the lease in the beginning of configuring the truck. I did the math, seems like you'll actually be paying a bit more (due to lease interest , I believe) then buying it out right.

I will try to configure another truck then ... looking over the Lease information in my Tesla App indicates nothing about "Option to purchase for $XXX" at all I originally started with opting to pay cash, then trying the Lease option to see if it will work out.

 

[HaulingAss]

The remaining 2024s could become very difficult for Tesla to sell, if 2025s were available with the $7,500 credit. Would you buy a 2024, if a 2025 was both newer and cost $7,500 less? Probably not, right? So Tesla may need to clear out the 2024s before they can offer the tax credit on 2025s.

Wrong and incorrect thinking. Plenty of Cybertruck buyers cannot take the tax credit for income reasons. I've bought four new Tesla, all except for the Cybertruck were eligible for the credit but I've never been able to utilize it. If there really are thousands of 2024's left (and I highly doubt it now), Tesla can just sell them with incentives to people like me who don't care about the tax credit.

There is a risk that Cybertruck sales could stall out this month. Customers may be holding off on buying, until 2025s are available with the tax credit.

That doesn't make a lot of sense either. The credits are imminent. Congress will not be repealing for at least a few months (they can't even confirm the administration's new cabinet picks in a timely manner). If anything, there will be a flood of new orders once the $7,500 is demonstrated to work, waiting lists will form, and people will risk not being able to take delivery before the tax credit is repealed.

I really wish government wouldn't stick their head so deeply into EV sales, the things practically sell themselves if you make good ones and offer them at a good price. Instead we have this cluster-fuck where no one seems to know what's going on. Only governemnt can create such a mess. They should stick to building out DCFC networks at best. But they can't even do that competently. Most of the money will be wasted, with very little to show for it. Hopefully Elon and Vivek can fix the charging inititive (but it might be too late).

 

[HaulingAss]

In support of the 2024 theory, check out Tesla's numbers for 2024 global production and deliveries:

But for the expensive "Other Models" (S, X, CT), Tesla produced more than they delivered, by about 9,000 vehicles, or around 10%. We don't know how to divide this surplus up between the three models. But if there was a mismatch between supply and demand, it most likely affected the CT, because it was brand new in 2024, so Tesla had to make some guesses about the potential demand. In contrast, Models S/X have been sold for many years, so Tesla should have a pretty good understanding of S/X demand by now.

So Tesla's numbers suggest that there could be thousands of unsold expensive 2024 Teslas still in inventory. And it seems possible that the CT could be more affected than the S/X.

I wouldn't use the numbers you presented to make the conclusions you made.

S&X are delivered globally but only made in N. America. That means they have much longer time in transit than models that are delivered on the continent where they are manufactured. Tesla counts vehicles in transit as "inventory" at the end of each period.

This means the method you use to make your conclusion is not really valid.

 

[YDR37]

I wouldn't use the numbers you presented to make the conclusions you made.

S&X are delivered globally but only made in N. America. That means they have much longer time in transit than models that are delivered on the continent where they are manufactured. Tesla counts vehicles in transit as "inventory" at the end of each period.

This means the method you use to make your conclusion is not really valid.

For 2023, Tesla reported that production in the expensive "Other Models" category exceeded deliveries, but only by 1,952 units. Cybertruck production was very limited in 2023, so the numbers are almost all Models S/X.

For 2024, the imbalance in the "Other Models" category rose sharply, to 8,972 units. So somehow, the imbalance grew, by several thousands of expensive vehicles. But nothing really changed about the S/X from 2023 to 2024; the big difference was the ramping of Cybertruck production.

So maybe Tesla overestimated CT demand in 2024. If so, it wouldn't be the first time that an auto manufacturer misgauged the demand for a brand new product (ask Ford about the Lightning). The longer that 2024 CTs remain available in Tesla's inventory system, the more likely this scenario will seem.

 

[Gritted Cybe]

For 2023, Tesla reported that production in the expensive "Other Models" category exceeded deliveries, but only by 1,952 units. Cybertruck production was very limited in 2023, so the numbers are almost all Models S/X.

For 2024, the imbalance in the "Other Models" category rose sharply, to 8,972 units. So somehow, the imbalance grew, by several thousands of expensive vehicles. But nothing really changed about the S/X from 2023 to 2024; the big difference was the ramping of Cybertruck production.

So maybe Tesla overestimated CT demand in 2024. If so, it wouldn't be the first time that an auto manufacturer misgauged the demand for a brand new product (ask Ford about the Lightning). The longer that 2024 CTs remain available in Tesla's inventory system, the more likely this scenario will seem.

I'm monitoring inventory levels to gauge a potential price decrease or great incentive to buy.

 

[mongo]

For 2023, Tesla reported that production in the expensive "Other Models" category exceeded deliveries, but only by 1,952 units. Cybertruck production was very limited in 2023, so the numbers are almost all Models S/X.

For 2024, the imbalance in the "Other Models" category rose sharply, to 8,972 units. So somehow, the imbalance grew, by several thousands of expensive vehicles. But nothing really changed about the S/X from 2023 to 2024; the big difference was the ramping of Cybertruck production.

So maybe Tesla overestimated CT demand in 2024. If so, it wouldn't be the first time that an auto manufacturer misgauged the demand for a brand new product (ask Ford about the Lightning). The longer that 2024 CTs remain available in Tesla's inventory system, the more likely this scenario will seem.

Cybertruck had to fill the entire distribution chain. S/X already had. Need to look at preexisting inventory levels, not just change in inventory.

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