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[Alpine]

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[Sirfun]

I think you are trolling for comments. When you look at the EV truck market, $85K is not that much money.

 

[TBONO]

I was reading about the F150 Limited and it's history. It is basically an F150 configured with the most expensive available options for the truck and some options only available to this top trim.
It tops out at about $84k and has alway been close to 3x the price of the base model.

The Limited has never accounted for more than 1% of overall F150 sales. So very few people are willing to step up to that price point.

I know at $70k, CT3 has a good percentage of the reservations but as Elon alluded, there is a price cliff beyond which willing buyers drop off drastically.

This being a pickup, i dont see a big market for a $85k CT4 or plaid. As unique as it may be, most couldn't afford it and many who can couldn't stomach it. What are your thoughts.

Yep
No different when comparing volumes of a model 3 to a model s/x-plaid
They are different cars/markets.
base CT much bigger market than CT4 same truck, different markets. Like the F150 various trims.

 

[CyberGus]

How much of the population do you think has 85k to spend on a truck?

If 85k is the going rate to get an EV truck, then i don't see them selling millions of trucks. Do you know another vehicle on the road that sells for 85k and are numbered in the millions.

How can everyone afford not to buy an EV?

ICE vehicles need oil changes, pads/rotors, belts, and expensive fuel. My Cybertruck will charge at low cost, needing only new tires periodically.

Average selling price of a new car is ~$45k, EVs $55k, SUVs $65k, Luxury/Sports $99k+. The Cybertruck is EV, and SUV, and Luxury/Sports, so the prices seem very reasonable.

I agree that Tesla won't sell 1M Plaid CTs, but no one suggested they would? The reservations are 85% dual/tri ($49k-$69k) with most as dual-motor.

 

[CyberGus]

...I agree that Tesla won't sell 1M Plaid CTs, but no one suggested they would? The reservations are 85% dual/tri ($49k-$69k) with most as dual-motor.

FYI, when the phone ringing in my hand shows "TESLA INC" my other hand will already be holding the checkbook

 

[Halemarine]

How much of the population do you think has 85k to spend on a truck?

If 85k is the going rate to get an EV truck, then i don't see them selling millions of trucks. Do you know another vehicle on the road that sells for 85k and are numbered in the millions.

I

How much of the population do you think has 85k to spend on a truck?

If 85k is the going rate to get an EV truck, then i don't see them selling millions of trucks. Do you know another vehicle on the road that sells for 85k and are numbered in the millions.

I ordered $50K Cybertruck and that is what I hope to get. I don't need 4 wheel steering or pass through to the vault. Need PICK UP TRUCK.

 

[jerhenderson]

plenty of trucks in my market are 85k plus.

 

[Crissa]

plenty of trucks in my market are 85k plus.

...Let's stick with statistics not 'gosh, I saw an expensive one.'

-Crissa

 

[charliemagpie]

Compare the $50,000 CT, which will have the bells and whistles of the more expensive ICE, and then you are comparing apples to apples.

Put lipstick on the top Lightning, and it still won't come close to the quad.

 

[Cyberman]

You're the hardcore enthusiast with funds. Not everyone is that.

A good portion of members in the various price threads are of the opinion that CT3 will be 80-85k. If thats the case, and I understand no one knows outside of Tesla, that will drive the CT3 reservations right off the cliff too.

They are building the factory to sell millions and have no choice but to keep it affordable

OK, I like your bottom line.
The Cybertruck's getting cheaper every day!!!

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

I was reading about the F150 Limited and it's history. It is basically an F150 configured with the most expensive available options for the truck and some options only available to this top trim.
It tops out at about $84k and has alway been close to 3x the price of the base model.

The Limited has never accounted for more than 1% of overall F150 sales. So very few people are willing to step up to that price point.

I know at $70k, CT3 has a good percentage of the reservations but as Elon alluded, there is a price cliff beyond which willing buyers drop off drastically.

This being a pickup, i dont see a big market for a $85k CT4 or plaid. As unique as it may be, most couldn't afford it and many who can couldn't stomach it. What are your thoughts.

You are probably right. There are some people that will buy a quad and not care about the price. Think of Plaid Model S buyers…tiny number. Then there will be some tri-motor people willing to get the quad to be first in line. Depending on the price I may be in that group even though I cannot foresee a need for all-wheel independent drive. The vast majority of truck buyers buy for functionality and a certain degree of comfort. That is why the Silverado is a tough sell. To get a reasonable range you have to pay over $100K. On an inefficient platform with no charging infrastructure. Unlikely. So I think that Elon will hold off until he can sell the CT at a price people will find hard to pass up. Just my opinion.

 

[HaulingAss]

The Cybertruck will be a screaming value in most of it's model offerings. What the OP is missing is two things:

1) Most Cybertrucks will not be $85K
2) The Cybertruck is not a direct comparison to other trucks (EV or not) when you consider all of them have a thin and fragile painted shell and the Cybertruck has a hardened stainless steel shell 3mm thick. How do you compare that? I would say that's a $15K upgrade right there. Impervious to errant shopping carts, wind blown debris, off-road sticks that get levered up into the body, sapling branches that scratch the soft delicate paint of ordinary legacy trucks, etc, etc, etc.

Not only does it save the most common kind of damage from happening, it also saves the owners time in not having to schedule the dent removal and re-painting.

Of course the Cybertruck advantages don't stop with it's hard damage resistant shell either. How do you put a price on a truck that is out-of-this-world? The excitement of initial deliveries will build to a deafening crescendo like no other vehicle has caused. The mainstream media will push out thier transparent hit pieces that attempt to portray the truck as undesireable or the fans of it as freaks, while new owners will be showing this revolutionary truck to family, friends and co-workers who will only be skeptical at first. As they see the large roomy cabin with their own eyes, watch the motorized tonneau cover open and close, see the gleam of the stainless steel in person, take rides, drive them and feel the awesome power and handling, they will finally begin to understand. Unfortunately, there will not be enough of them to go around unless one had the foresight to make a reservation!

 

[FutureBoy]

I was reading about the F150 Limited and it's history. It is basically an F150 configured with the most expensive available options for the truck and some options only available to this top trim.
It tops out at about $84k and has alway been close to 3x the price of the base model.

The Limited has never accounted for more than 1% of overall F150 sales. So very few people are willing to step up to that price point.

I know at $70k, CT3 has a good percentage of the reservations but as Elon alluded, there is a price cliff beyond which willing buyers drop off drastically.

This being a pickup, i dont see a big market for a $85k CT4 or plaid. As unique as it may be, most couldn't afford it and many who can couldn't stomach it. What are your thoughts.

So let's assume that in order to easily afford the CT4, someone will need to be at least a millionaire.

Turns out that there are currently (well 2020 statistics) 20.27 millionaires in the US.

Of those millionaires, the total wealth distribution is:

Distribution	Wealth	~ Population
84%	$1m - $2.5m	17,026,800
13%	$2.5m-$4m	2,635,100
3%	$4m-$5m	608,100
4%	$5m-$10m	810,800
1%	$10m-$25m	202,700
0.1%	$25m-$50m	20,270
0.03%	$50m-$100m	6,081
0.02%	$100m-$500m	4,054
0.01%	$500m and up	2,027

So let's just be even more selective and remove the people who have a net worth less than $2.5m. That leaves us with a population of 4,289,132 people in the US worth over $2.5m. Do you think there are maybe 25% (so 1,072,283) of them that might want a CT4? Or that might have someone in their sphere of influence (kids, mistresses, boy-toy, parent, etc) who might be getting a CT4 as a present?

Let's say it's not 25%. Instead, maybe only 10% (so 428,913). Well, beyond the general population, there are also corporations. I know there is the mantra that "corporations are people" but they are not part of the above statistics.

So if there are about 400k people who can easily (and might actually) buy a CT4, what do you think the odds are that there are enough corporations out there to take up another 600k CT4's? I don't have stats for that but I'm guessing that a good number could be taken up here.

Now, what this does not take into account, is the number of people worth between $1m and $2.5m who will "stretch" to buy a CT4. If just over 1% of the 17m people here do that we have another 200k CT4's sold.

Given all that, I've made some guesses about the penetration rates. You may not agree with my guess. You might think my percentages are a bit high. OK. But I would counter with the fact that the world has never seen a vehicle like the CT. Given the security cocooning that has been happening over time in the US I'd argue that a whole new group of buyers could be found in the people who want better security that only a CT can provide. If you want to think of the CT as an armored truck, it is by far the cheapest and most drivable armored truck the world has ever seen. So looking at it from that standpoint, the CT4 is downright cheap.

But hey, this is all just prognostication. Instead of worrying about it, let's just hang out and watch things play out. In time we will see how popular the CT4 actually turns out to be.

 

[BillyGee]

Are you kidding? I see 80k trucks all the time. I just built this f150 on ford's website and just tried to give it comparable features to the CT and it's still only a hybrid power train.

 

[Sirfun]

This being a pickup, i dont see a big market for a $85k CT4 or plaid. As unique as it may be, most couldn't afford it and many who can couldn't stomach it. What are your thoughts.

You were asking for thoughts.

My first thought is you were trolling. You're implying that $85K is overpriced, and that The CT is a poor choice in vehicles with your comment about many couldn't stomach it. That's what I meant by trolling.
Also, very few people would agree that the Plaid Cybertruck, (which Elon stated will be the first production Cybertruck) will be priced at $85K. That would be ludicrous.

Just like Cybergus said, the Plaid will eventually be the top option, of the many options available, once Tesla goes into full production. Nobody knows how many Plaids, Tesla will produce. Very few people need a truck with that much power. But as the first Cybertruck out of the gate while production gets ironed out, Tesla will sell as many as they can make for a while.

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