Best Educated Guess

[DECO]

OK, got our VIN # today and when we got to the payment page, my wife and I were discussing how long we thought it would be if we waited for the non-Foundation series.

Res #11300 Dual Motor in Colorado

What’s your best educated guess on how long it would be to get a delivery if we waited for a non-Foundation series?

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[Coagulation]

My guess is end of 2024 to be able to configure non FS with Q1 delivery.

But for you with a vin you may not be able to cancel / push it out and stay on line for non FS. So if not, could be well longer than that

 

[Tony2times]

Starting the process over today? 2-3 years. I was at the dealer yesterday inspecting my truck that just came off the semi from Austin and the phone was literally ringing off the hook with questions about how long it would take to get a truck. The Tesla team wouldn’t give a straight answer (obviously) because they don’t know.

 

[carsly]

I’ll go with 6-8 months. I think Foundation series may wrap with the shareholder vehicles so we could be done by the end of Q3. Q4 is the latest as I think Tesla will ship regular trucks this year. Why?

When the reseervation page opened during the Delivery Event it indicated “Delivery 2024” for anyone placing a reservation at that time - and those are plain Cybertrucks.

 

[mbrockus]

Its anyone's guess at this time. You situation of being so close to delivery, I don't know where you would fall in the non foundation line. This accelerator pedal issue is pushing things to the right and this may not be the last issue to crop up this year. I'll take the safe bet and say 2025.

 

[Coagulation]

OP… I couldn’t help but look at your post history. Did you place your $1000 deposit/order on Friday (4 days ago) and got a VIN today???

if so, that is the fastest I’ve ever seen. That must mean that production is really ramping up.

 

[bongulous]

OP… I couldn’t help but look at your post history. Did you place your $1000 deposit/order on Friday (4 days ago) and got a VIN today???

if so, that is the fastest I’ve ever seen. That must mean that production is really ramping up.

I noticed that too. Fastest turn around and wasn’t even one of the main 3 states. Let’s hope this will slowly become the norm.

 

[DECO]

OP… I couldn’t help but look at your post history. Did you place your $1000 deposit/order on Friday (4 days ago) and got a VIN today???

if so, that is the fastest I’ve ever seen. That must mean that production is really ramping up.

I did sign up for the early access with the stock thing. I got a denial email saying that I didn’t qualify and I emailed back with my wife’s stock info hoping they would combine the two. I never heard back but maybe they accepted it and that’s what made it so fast.

 

[TecDoc]

At this point, its anyone's guess. My guess would be Q1 or Q2 2025. They still have massive back log of all these orders without VINs and pending deliveries. Unless they figure out massive production haul and streamline VIN assignment and deliveries, i don' t see any non FS deliveries until Q1 or Q2 of 2025.

 

[GFleck]

Starting the process over today? 2-3 years. I was at the dealer yesterday inspecting my truck that just came off the semi from Austin and the phone was literally ringing off the hook with questions about how long it would take to get a truck. The Tesla team wouldn’t give a straight answer (obviously) because they don’t know.

I worry about what this person said. I have ordered but not received VIN yet and the thought of, should I just wait for non-foundation series keeps popping up in my mind but I worry that at this point it would put me back to the back of the line.

Has anyone called Tesla and asked them about this scenario (with or without a VIN assigned)?

 

[DECO]

I worry about what this person said. I have ordered but not received VIN yet and the thought of, should I just wait for non-foundation series keeps popping up in my mind but I worry that at this point it would put me back to the back of the line.

Has anyone called Tesla and asked them about this scenario (with or without a VIN assigned)?

Don’t know the facts but Tesla Raj actually had one delivered and he declined it. At minute 5:40 in the video he seems to indicate that he was able to just delay it….

 

[cgladue]

OK, got our VIN # today and when we got to the payment page, my wife and I were discussing how long we thought it would be if we waited for the non-Foundation series.

Res #11300 Dual Motor in Colorado

What’s your best educated guess on how long it would be to get a delivery if we waited for a non-Foundation series?

Can you give us the details of your order ?

* first 5 of RN

* date you configured your truck

* date you got your VIN

* VIN Number range (6800, 4500, etc)

* Date you took delivery (if applicable)

 

[EmJay]

I worry about what this person said. I have ordered but not received VIN yet and the thought of, should I just wait for non-foundation series keeps popping up in my mind but I worry that at this point it would put me back to the back of the line.

Has anyone called Tesla and asked them about this scenario (with or without a VIN assigned)?

I called when I received my invitation. I was told—what many others on here have written as well—that this was my reservation being honored, that if I declined I would go back in line and there was no estimate when I would be invited again. “Back in line” was not clarified even when I asked what that meant. Didn’t wanna risk being put at the end of 4.5 years of orders when I ordered day 2. Plus, I’m an early adopter. I love this stuff.

 

[Cybertruck2024]

Tesla website says a reservation now will come in 2025. I'd say if you are in California or Texas, that is probably true. My guess is for other states, they will be equally far behind in delivering those reservations as they are the FS. That would mean best case 2025, worst case mid-2026. Since so many FS order holders are crossing their fingers they still take delivery in 2024, the real questions are what will be the demand of non-FS and what will be the rate of 2025 production.

Keep in mind that I know nothing other than what is officially published on Tesla's page and that they are already a few months behind what they published for the FS. These are both facts, everything else is a guess based on this fact pattern. I'm pretty sure Tesla can sell 100k AWD CTs at $72k after the tax rebate kicks in, before moving to RWD. How long will it take to make 100k CTs? Then I assume they can sell 100k+ RWD at the $52k price. How long will that take? Then you'll see orders fulfilled at the same rate as current Teslas, once these first 200k or so deliveries are made. The 2 million reservation number doesn't mean anything, there will be supply constrains only until around 200k-250k CTs are delivered.

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