CT vs Y price differential

[Newton]

u kinda just proved my point? trading a model y to a CT, meaning not taking from either sale, maybe i just dont get it

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[Crissa]

u kinda just proved my point? trading a model y to a CT, meaning not taking from either sale

That's literally a sale of a Model Y being supplanted by a sale of a Cybertruck.

-Crissa

 

[tidmutt]

I’m right here. Lol model y buyer. Going to go to a cybertruck with a trade in of my model y.

Me too. My Y is a stop gap until the truck. I don't need a truck, but the CT is so damn cool I want one. Looking forward to going bush a bit with the truck.

The Y is amazing, astounding car. I've done a few decent road trips and wow it's an easy car to drive long distances.

The CT will be an evolution on the Y in some ways, at least the software, FSD tech etc. so I'm looking forward to how amazing it will be.

 

[Newton]

That's literally a sale of a Model Y being supplanted by a sale of a Cybertruck.

-Crissa

hmm, welp I know nothing

I think what i meant was that the demand from both wont detract from the sell of the other.

 

[Bill906]

the CT pricing has always been unbelievable. What a mess. AWESOMENESS!!!!

I fixed it for you.

 

[Daddystired]

Me too. My Y is a stop gap until the truck. I don't need a truck, but the CT is so damn cool I want one. Looking forward to going bush a bit with the truck.

The Y is amazing, astounding car. I've done a few decent road trips and wow it's an easy car to drive long distances.

The CT will be an evolution on the Y in some ways, at least the software, FSD tech etc. so I'm looking forward to how amazing it will be.

Almost the same. Except I need the truck.
fishing poles.
dirty shoes.
Baseball cleats.
Cement.
Hauling rock/dirt.
Dirty dogs. List goes on. Lol

 

[Bill906]

Almost the same. Except I need the truck.
fishing poles.
dirty shoes.
Baseball cleats.
Cement.
Hauling rock/dirt.
Dirty dogs. List goes on. Lol

I’ve never had fishing poles or baseball cleats in my Jeep Grand Cherokee. But in retrospect cement, dirt and rocks were probably not a good idea.

 

[Crissa]

I always put a tarp down now. Brick dust is a doozy to clean up.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

Musk called the pricing on the Model Y “Embarrassingly High” and that they might lower the pricing. When you consider their margins and the fact that Austin should improve their margins significantly, it’s not ridiculous. The big problem is they have a massive backlog.

I’m not sure how much you can draw from Model Y pricing.

Of course Cybertruck is in it’s own weird place with regards to demand and wait lists.

 

[Tinker71]

Musk called the pricing on the Model Y “Embarrassingly High” and that they might lower the pricing. When you consider their margins and the fact that Austin should improve their margins significantly, it’s not ridiculous. The big problem is they have a massive backlog.

I’m not sure how much you can draw from Model Y pricing.

Of course Cybertruck is in it’s own weird place with regards to demand and wait lists.

Some people specifically don't like trucks. Many people make their transportation decision based on total cost of ownership vs minimum functional requirements. These are the people that would purchase a big CT over a more reasonable model Y just based on price. Who wouldn't want all that utility, an extra seat, and off-road capability for the same price.? Everyone except the people who specifically don't like trucks or the CT styling.

I would guestimate that the price difference of the F150 crew cab vs a similarly trimmed sedan over the last 10 years was probably $20k. They sold a crap more trucks. The actual cost difference due to size and extra truck parts was probably only $5k. Many trucks only get used as trucks 3-4 days per month. Many are glorified grocery getters and commuters.

IMHO a $10k spread is the minimum Tesla could do. Hopefully the Y will actually come down $10k. With model Y production doubling in a years time. I think it is entirely possible. That will be a hard pill to swallow for people that paid $65k for a Y, but necessary with all the new competition.

The CT2 will be priced around $65k. RJN 8.12.22

 

[ED_SFO]

When the Model Y released it was $47k for the base model. At about the same time the base price of the CT was announced to be $39.9k. From that we know the current base model Y price is $58k. So if you just also an extra $11k on each model you have the best guess of price.

Single: $39.9 -> $50k
Dual: $49.9 -> $60k
Tri: $69.9 -> $80k

Unfortunately prices of inflation is not a linear scale. There are so many more expensive components that is in the CT that has increased more than 150% like stainless steel alone. With is almost double what it would've cost back then. This is just one example.

 

[Arctic_White]

Musk called the pricing on the Model Y “Embarrassingly High” and that they might lower the pricing. When you consider their margins and the fact that Austin should improve their margins significantly, it’s not ridiculous. The big problem is they have a massive backlog.

I’m not sure how much you can draw from Model Y pricing.

Of course Cybertruck is in it’s own weird place with regards to demand and wait lists.

Because of the demand alone, don't you think Tesla should keep the prices artificially high (initially) and extract as much cash and profit as the market will bear?

I don't know what Tesla will do but I wouldn't be surprised to see CT at $100K+ offered initially with a much cheaper variant ($50K, dual motor, standard range for example) coming once the demand has died down.

Thoughts?

 

[Ogre]

Because of the demand alone, don't you think Tesla should keep the prices artificially high (initially) and extract as much cash and profit as the market will bear?

I don't know what Tesla will do but I wouldn't be surprised to see CT at $100K+ offered initially with a much cheaper variant ($50K, dual motor, standard range for example) coming once the demand has died down.

Thoughts?

Everyone keeps thinking about this in very short terms. “Tesla is going to maximize profits…” but that only works for about a year before demand for $100k trucks falls off a cliff. Elon makes plans for 10 years. He’s not worried about profit for the next 2 quarters. Look at Tesla’s income statement. They aren’t worried about making a few million more in the next couple quarters. Think long term.

Elon has been banging this drum for the past 3 earnings calls and during the annual shareholders meeting. They are targeting more than 50% growth. By year end 2022, Tesla’s run rate will be 2m vehicles per year. That means to sustain their current growth rate they need to get capacity for 1m additional vehicles per year by year end 2023. **AND** capacity for 1.5m additional vehicles in 2024.

That’s the number Elon is looking at. How do they go from a run rate of 1m vehicles a year in 2021 to a run rate of 4.5m vehicles per year at the end of in 2024. A $130k hypertruck might sell 30-50k trucks per year. That isn’t even interesting in this context. An $80k truck with 500 miles range? Yeah, that’s going to post some serious numbers. A $60k truck with 300 miles range? Off the charts.

Another number Musk dropped at the annual shareholders meeting: 20m vehicles per year by 2030.

These are the numbers that Musk is thinking about. I seriously doubt Musk is investing more than 2 seconds of his time over any new vehicles (or trims) which will sell fewer than 100k units per year.

 

[Tinker71]

Everyone keeps thinking about this in very short terms. “Tesla is going to maximize profits…” but that only works for about a year before demand for $100k trucks falls off a cliff. Elon makes plans for 10 years. He’s not worried about profit for the next 2 quarters. Look at Tesla’s income statement. They aren’t worried about making a few million more in the next couple quarters. Think long term.

Elon has been banging this drum for the past 3 earnings calls and during the annual shareholders meeting. They are targeting more than 50% growth. By year end 2022, Tesla’s run rate will be 2m vehicles per year. That means to sustain their current growth rate they need to get capacity for 1m additional vehicles per year by year end 2023. **AND** capacity for 1.5m additional vehicles in 2024.

That’s the number Elon is looking at. How do they go from a run rate of 1m vehicles a year in 2021 to a run rate of 4.5m vehicles per year at the end of in 2024. A $130k hypertruck might sell 30-50k trucks per year. That isn’t even interesting in this context. An $80k truck with 500 miles range? Yeah, that’s going to post some serious numbers. A $60k truck with 300 miles range? Off the charts.

Another number Musk dropped at the annual shareholders meeting: 20m vehicles per year by 2030.

These are the numbers that Musk is thinking about. I seriously doubt Musk is investing more than 2 seconds of his time over any new vehicles (or trims) which will sell fewer than 100k units per year.

Top end bragging rights is big time advertising. By your logic they might as well stop producing sx Plaid versions.

 

[Arctic_White]

Everyone keeps thinking about this in very short terms. “Tesla is going to maximize profits…” but that only works for about a year before demand for $100k trucks falls off a cliff. Elon makes plans for 10 years. He’s not worried about profit for the next 2 quarters. Look at Tesla’s income statement. They aren’t worried about making a few million more in the next couple quarters. Think long term.

Elon has been banging this drum for the past 3 earnings calls and during the annual shareholders meeting. They are targeting more than 50% growth. By year end 2022, Tesla’s run rate will be 2m vehicles per year. That means to sustain their current growth rate they need to get capacity for 1m additional vehicles per year by year end 2023. **AND** capacity for 1.5m additional vehicles in 2024.

That’s the number Elon is looking at. How do they go from a run rate of 1m vehicles a year in 2021 to a run rate of 4.5m vehicles per year at the end of in 2024. A $130k hypertruck might sell 30-50k trucks per year. That isn’t even interesting in this context. An $80k truck with 500 miles range? Yeah, that’s going to post some serious numbers. A $60k truck with 300 miles range? Off the charts.

Another number Musk dropped at the annual shareholders meeting: 20m vehicles per year by 2030.

These are the numbers that Musk is thinking about. I seriously doubt Musk is investing more than 2 seconds of his time over any new vehicles (or trims) which will sell fewer than 100k units per year.

Interesting and fascinating points you raised.

I still feel that Tesla would not want to introduce the CT at under $80K initially simply because the demand is already there. I feel like the first production will be $100K with a $50K much cheaper truck to be launched later.

You think $80K and $60K.
I'm saying $100K and $50K.

Let's see which one of us is right. LOL.

Try as they might, Tesla is capped because of supply constraints. Even if Tesla wanted to, they are physically unable to make the cars right now. It will take time to scale up. Because of this reason alone, Tesla is likely to keep a hefty profit margin for the first few years of CT. This profit will be redirected towards building more Giga Factories in order to hit that 20M mark by 2030.

I agree with you on that front. I just think CTs won't be as cheap as you think, initially.

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