Cybercatch22: Demand vs Delay

[Deleted member 3316]

2M reservation does not translate into direct sales. Many of these reservations will be canceled for various reasons.

It is indicative of demand, even if 50% back out that is at least 3-4years of production.

Do you not think demand will increase as more vehicles hit the road.

You're assuming that many of these said reservations are strictly for resale purposes. The # is tiny and not worth the hassle for Tesla.

Looking at secondhand market when model 3 was 1st launched its clear it’s about 10%.

Just from the poll on this site about this it’s pretty safe to assume the the intent to scalp reservations is somewhere between 10-20%.
Not inconsequential.

The true value of the Cybertruck will be determined by the market not Tesla. Tesla will set a price, but that balance is going to be extremely difficult to manage if they are only going to allow direct sales to the million or so reservation holders.

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[Arctic_White]

It is indicative of demand, even if 50% back out that is at least 3-4years of production.

Do you not think demand will increase as more veh




Looking at secondhand market when model 3 was 1st launched its clear it’s about 10%.

Just from the poll on this site about this it’s pretty safe to assume the the intent to scalp reservations is somewhere between 10-20%.
Not inconsequential.

The true value of the Cybertruck will be determined by the market not Tesla. Tesla will set a price, but that balance is going to be extremely difficult to manage if they are only going to allow direct sales to the million or so reservation holders.

OK. So let's assume you're correct on both of the points above.

Do you not, therefore, think that Tesla will raise the truck's price just how they did for Model Y in 2021 and 2022?

Dynamic prices is something Tesla has played with and has become successful with.

 

[Deleted member 3316]

OK. So let's assume you're correct on both of the points above.

Do you not, therefore, think that Tesla will raise the truck's price just how they did for Model Y in 2021 and 2022?

Dynamic prices is something Tesla has played with and has become successful with.

Yes, exactly my point the price is volatile.

Do you want to pay more because people who aren’t in line want their vehicle before you?

Dynamic pricing is opaque and causes hesitancy. Infrequent price changes creates stability in demand.

This situation with Cybertruck is very different and only slightly analogous to Model3/Y. Tesla have a very clear picture of CyberTruck demand for the prices at reveal but it is not entirely clear how high a price the market will accept, especially those without reservations.

Especially for those without reservations

Consider the use cases for high mileage fleet and the savings available. The TCO is significantly more compelling than a majority of consumers uses.

A novel market strategy is indicated for this unprecedented situation.

 

[cvalue13]

Just from the poll on this site about this it’s pretty safe to assume the the intent to scalp reservations is somewhere between 10-20%.
Not inconsequential.

people who say your idea is silly are not synonymous with people intending to scalp

You should consider stopping repeating this “defense” that anyone who disagrees with your half-cocked ideas must themselves be scalpers-why-else-would-they-dare-defy-your-superior-intellect.

Early on, people who never intended to scalp their trucks were starting to want to scalp just for the satisfaction of trolling you - a close second was just answering your “poll” in ways that might irritate you

 

[Deleted member 3316]

That is the whole premise of this thread.

Two tiered market structure.
Reservation holders can buy at MSRP with a covenant preventing on selling for a predetermined time.
Reservation holders can also purchase at auction with no covenant restrictions.
As production ramps and interest heightens regular weekly/monthly auctions could be open to all, (for a small percentage of the production) matched to the rate of cancellations from an inability to scalp the reservations. The end of quarter deliveries would be simpler as there would be a few people ready to collect the same vehicle.

 

[Deleted member 3316]

My guess is that for those who have multiple orders, Tesla would deliver 1 of those units to that individual & the remaining orders for that person will be full filed later to let more Cybertruck deliveries in other part of the country to be seen by the public to ramp up new orders! My 2cents!

I’d be pretty annoyed if I put in two or three reservations because I wanted two or three trucks for a business or as a gift though. To honour the reservations Tesla need to generally supply in sequential order for each territory.

 

[Crissa]

2. This is not a situation of finite supply like a concert or basketball game.

This is untrue. Only so many trucks can be made per time period.

And we know the reservation list is more than a year long.

-Crissa

 

[CyberOwl]

This is untrue. Only so many trucks can be made per time period.

And we know the reservation list is more than a year long.

-Crissa

You are correct. However, the production timeline for the Cybertruck is open ended at this time. There is no ‘period’.
Theoretically, if a buyer had a terminal disease then their personal ‘period’ would be finite and speculation could hurt folks in that group by not accelerating their reservation. Notice I didn’t say delay, because delay is wholly owned by Tesla production woes. Delivery fulfillment to ‘non genuine’ users, as they’ve been called here, cannot ever be characterized as delay.

 

[Crissa]

All demand has changes over time periods, and hence, should be measured instantaneously, and in an instant, the supply is ultimately finite.

-Crissa

 

[Deleted member 3316]

Because you like a higher Total cost of ownership?

 

[Deleted member 3316]

Here’s a question for everyone.

If this measure is to be functional, an agreeable lock out period would need to part of the sales contract.

How long are you going to keep your Cybertruck?

 

[Gurule92]

Cory from Munro live says they'll pay double for an early CT to tear down

 

[Deleted member 3316]

Cory from Munro live says they'll pay double for an early CT to tear down

Wouldn’t it be good if they could pay that to Tesla…..

 

[Gurule92]

Wouldn’t it be good if they could pay that to Tesla…..

Not if it makes me get my truck later

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