Cybertruck deliveries based on progress of Giga Texas

Luke42

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Yes, that would be great if they would only inflate at the target rate. But as we know, the real rate hasn’t been that low in years
Actual data on the inflation rate:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FPCPITOTLZGUSA

fredgraph.png


I appreciate where you're coming from (the CPI isn't perfect and economic life in the United States has gotten harder for people) but the econometrics disagree with what "we know" here.

When you dig in to the details, the problem appears to be that new housing is not being built and medical costs are out-of-control -- even while other costs are going down or staying the same.

As for inflation, though, I have yet to find a better way to measure it than what the St. Louis fed does.

The New York Fed is pretty much hitting the targets, as measured by the St. Louis Fed.

P.S. FRED is a great source for economic statistics. A lot of things that "we know" don't agree with the data very well. One of my favorite surprises is that American manufacturing sector is doing reasonably well -- the decline is in manufacturing employment. Another surprise is to take a chart of the GNP of the USA and label political events (elections) on it -- you'll find that a lot of things politicians say about their effect on the economy just does does not agree with the numbers.
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Owner13669

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Don't worry. The dollar will be crashing soon. Massive Joe Biden goverment handouts are coming and the dollar is expected to crash and hyperinflation is being predicted for 2022 with the real crash happening in 2023. By the time your order is ready I think we will be on even turf or your Canadian dollar might even beat the greenback.
Let’s keep your politics out of it.
 

Frankenblob

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CT prices will NOT be what Elon initially said!

Copper is up in cost, steel is up, silver is up (r/wallstreetsilver), electricity is up, chips are up (if you can find them), oil is up....

To think Elon can "master" the lowball prices he initially spoke of...real estate for sale in the Florida Everglades if you want.
 
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intimidator

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CT prices will NOT be what Elon initially said!

Copper is up in cost, steel is up, silver is up (r/wallstreetsilver), electricity is up, chips are up (if you can find them), oil is up....

To think Elon can "master" the lowball prices he initially spoke of...real estate for sale in the Florida Everglades if you want.
Material costs are rising, and will rise as interest rates over the next few years. However, all vehicle manufacturers will have to raise their prices as well.
 

Crissa

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Annual inflation hasn't hit the 2% target for decades.

The posted chart is annualized quarters, not annual inflation. So it's misleading.

-Crissa
 

Frankenblob

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Annual inflation hasn't hit the 2% target for decades.

The posted chart is annualized quarters, not annual inflation. So it's misleading.

-Crissa
Considering inflation is NOT political, but a Federal Reserve (PRIVATE banking syndicate) idea, all one has to do is LOOK at the price of housing, food, electricity, health care, tuition...and inflation is RAMPANT. It's just the Federal Reserve keeps shifting "what is in the 'CPI'". They take OUT things that are inflating (things people mostly need/use) and replace it with things NOT widely used/needed.

Pretty good RACKET eh?
 

Crissa

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...all one has to do is LOOK at the price of housing, food, electricity, health care, tuition...and inflation is RAMPANT.
  • Housing is not inflated across the US. It's very market-specific. We have not built the same number of units as kids have grown up and graduated high school in many places.
  • Food is not inflated across the US. Again, very market-based. Big companies have captured the markets.
  • Electricity has not kept up with inflation. It is cheaper, compared to inflation.
  • Health Care is above inflation rate - but it's also not in the inflation rate. It also provides more. I can afford chemotherapy for my cat, for instance, something that didn't exist twenty years ago.
  • Tuition has gone up much more than inflation while government spending on college has gone down. It's also not included in the inflation rate.

No, inflation is not rampant.
 

mattcatt

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Actual data on the inflation rate:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FPCPITOTLZGUSA

fredgraph.png


I appreciate where you're coming from (the CPI isn't perfect and economic life in the United States has gotten harder for people) but the econometrics disagree with what "we know" here.

When you dig in to the details, the problem appears to be that new housing is not being built and medical costs are out-of-control -- even while other costs are going down or staying the same.

As for inflation, though, I have yet to find a better way to measure it than what the St. Louis fed does.

The New York Fed is pretty much hitting the targets, as measured by the St. Louis Fed.

P.S. FRED is a great source for economic statistics. A lot of things that "we know" don't agree with the data very well. One of my favorite surprises is that American manufacturing sector is doing reasonably well -- the decline is in manufacturing employment. Another surprise is to take a chart of the GNP of the USA and label political events (elections) on it -- you'll find that a lot of things politicians say about their effect on the economy just does does not agree with the numbers.
Oh, sorry friend - and I do agree with your points - I said the 'Real Rate' - it's the interest rate minus inflation, which is negative for the first time since 2012; meaning, What you get for your savings bonds, minus inflation, is actually less money than you originally invested.

real rate.png


But further to what you're saying on inflation - that chart is the 'official' inflation being reported, but if you look at the currency printing rate (to relate back, which is what impacts ye olde CT prices), see the money supply here - ie. future inflation, coming to a town near you:

M1.png


Last thing and I'll leave it; the common items used to track inflation by the government was significantly changed in 1980, It's tracked now by ShadowStats, the original items. (eg. It was steak, and they changed it to ground beef). If you use those original items, our current inflation rate is running at about 9%. It's a boggling rabbit-hole, and yet.

1980 cpi.gif


I think there's direct messaging on here, please feel free if you want to continue, I'm quite enjoying.
 

Crissa

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The difference in price between steak and ground beef was nearly nothing, now it has a massive difference. That's why they did the replacements. (And even back then, my family mostly bought ground)

And many goods we purchase today just didn't exist forty years ago, either.

It is quite a rabbit hole to go down.

-Crissa
 

mattcatt

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  • Housing is not inflated across the US. It's very market-specific. We have not built the same number of units as kids have grown up and graduated high school in many places.
  • Food is not inflated across the US. Again, very market-based. Big companies have captured the markets.
  • Electricity has not kept up with inflation. It is cheaper, compared to inflation.
  • Health Care is above inflation rate - but it's also not in the inflation rate. It also provides more. I can afford chemotherapy for my cat, for instance, something that didn't exist twenty years ago.
  • Tuition has gone up much more than inflation while government spending on college has gone down. It's also not included in the inflation rate.

No, inflation is not rampant.
Hi Crissa, I'm going to respectfully disagree with you on a few points here. Housing prices haven't changed much in a hundred years. They're being purchased with less valuable dollars, so more of them are (in certain markets) required. The key thing is that inflation isn't the same as supply/demand - it's more like a store-keeper charging more to keep the same profit. 'I buy 10 chickens a week, mark them up 40%, and thats my profit'. It goes right down to basic goods; I had to pay more for grain to feed my chickens, so I have to sell my chickens for more', and then the question is why? why more?

The Federal government overspends. It borrows money from savers GICs, spends it all, and needs more. So the Federal Reserve (A private bank created in ... like 1935 ish) literally prints dollars, and ships them to the government. Gov gives to banks, banks lend the dollars and make interest, and then there's just more dollars around. It's like putting more water in your tea, the weight of the dollar, the merit, the 'worth' of a dollar is less. If everybody in america gets an Oscar in the mail, nobody tunes in on awards night :D

And even worse, there's a delay. So if a dollar is worth a full buck, when the government gives the banks those dollars they're still worth a buck to spend - and when they lend it out, they want a full buck back, (charging interest protects them against inflation, thats why interest rates change). But by the time you borrow that buck, all the borrowers borrow those bucks, the banks and big shops KNOW it's diluted, they know it isn't worth as much - so they raise the price of grain (Futures, commodities - the big market traders). and your price of chicken goes up.

Not very good but it's the best I can manage. Have a good weekend!

House price / inflation article

Chart (up about 35% since 1890):
house price.png
 
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Crissa

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The Federal government overspends
Your statement about housing didn't contradict mine. I said on average, housing had not risen, it was only in certain markets.

Your comparison to chickens was meaningless. The number of housing units has not kept up with the number of jobs and student slots created in some markets. That creates a lack of supply.

Your statement about government spending is entirely unsupported. In the last sixty years, excepting social and health welfare spending, the government spending has not kept up with population growth.

-Crissa
 

mattcatt

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Oh, you don't get my little explainer story. No worries, I'm not a great explainer. Overspending is when you spend more than you take in, and has nothing to do with population. Also you are incorrect on food, it has massively inflated, and support you wanted is provided below.

Unless you're stating population growth as a proxy for tax receipts, it has no relation to government spending - unless you are including neccessary forced expenditure increases, which is my point, that spending has risen massively, and they don't have the funds. It is therefore printed or borrowed, it is therefore devaluing the currency, and so inflation-causing.

Government spending has also massively increased on average over the last 60 years. eg. the current spend per student in schools has risen to ~31k. That tuition is left out of the CPI is intentional, to make official inflation appear low (and it's a non-core good), as all the changes were done to accomplish. As well cellphones, and other 'new' products as you referenced. New products have also risen in price and it's not due to supply constraints.

You are also incorrect on your statement of population growth and government spending for the reason that the population has not doubled since 1980 but spending has doubled about every ten years or worse. The Feds just printed 2 TRILLION fake-dollars this month.

Anyway, it sounds like you're pushing an anti-inflation theory substantially removed from facts, so I'm done with this thread. If you want to dig in on inflation, look into gold.

Later!

deficit.png

food inflation.png

population.png

spending.png


US deficit.png
 

Crissa

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Oh, you don't get my little explainer story. No worries, I'm not a great explainer. Overspending is when you spend more than you take in, and...
...Yes, this is incorrect. A country with a currency is not a household. It does not need to 'take in'. You're trying to use microeconomics to explain macroeconomic forces. And it doesn't work.

Your selection of charts are pointless: These would of course increase, because:
  • GDP increased
  • Population increased
  • Inflation deflated the value of each dollar
Etc.

-Crissa
 
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intimidator

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CT prices will NOT be what Elon initially said!

Copper is up in cost, steel is up, silver is up (r/wallstreetsilver), electricity is up, chips are up (if you can find them), oil is up....

To think Elon can "master" the lowball prices he initially spoke of...real estate for sale in the Florida Everglades if you want.
Hopefully the increase(s) will not be substantial.

If the Cybertruck price goes from $69,000 to $71,000 because of material cost inflation, that should not be a deal killer. I would think it will be absorbed without too much grumbling by buyers.

The question is, and had been, can Tesla decrease the cost of the batteries over the next 12 months. OR, is more of a longer timeline. And how much can he decrease the cost.

I am looking forward to my TriMotor....but I am also pulling for Tesla to lower the cost of batteries so they will be able to produce a $30,000-$40,000 model car/suv with 350 mile range so a large slice of consumers can get into a Tesla. Go Elon!
 

Diehard

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It looks like EV truck prices are indeed going up. first Hummer EV was just sold for $2.5 million. Better grab the the first CT before Elon hear the news.
 
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