Cybertruck deliveries based on progress of Giga Texas

JBee

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No. You're wrong. One month is not a measure of overall inflation.

Flatly, your evidence says you're wrong.

What happened last year? Recession. That means, to get back to the value that was lost you need inflation.

What happened in 1992? Recovery from a recession.

What happened in May? Recovery from recession.

So. You're taking a point out of context, which makes you wrong.

-Crissa

https://jabberwocking.com/chart-of-...ation-is-up-4-2-real-inflation-is-up-about-3/
(The line in this graph is supposed to rise, because population increases. It can only decline if population declines.)

https://jabberwocking.com/theres-still-no-real-sign-of-inflation-in-the-future/
(The top line in this graph is dropping because there is no increasing inflation over a longer period.)
Inflation is compounding though, so you have to add lasts year inflation, and the year before etc, to this years rate. Even if you had negative this year, total inflation could still be rising depending from what point in time you started measuring from. Like compounding interest.
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JBee

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Regardless, the Austin factory itself is a mastery of chaos. They're installing equipment and calibrating robots, even though they are missing walls, half the roof, and in some places a dirt floor! They've already got the casting machines cranking out hundreds of MY parts a day, with the roof still being installed nearby. It's insane, I've never seen anything like it.

Honestly, my concern with CT shipments is the 4680 availability at production volumes.
Mastery in Chaos = Non-sequential construction.

Things happen faster when you have lots of people doing everything at once instead of after each other. Looks great on a Gannt chart when you can pull all the timelines together, but not so much in real life.

At times it's hard to build the roof without a floor first...but you can make it work, I've done that before on some houses in 2012. Built a series of 45kW solar 500sqm roofs (with 1-axis tracking) on steel frames and put the houses in underneath after. Had to meet the FIT deadline, so we done the solar before even starting the house as such. House floor and roof then just spanned between the columns after, And the SIP walls and DG windows just attached between the two. People didn't get it but it worked.

In this case they need to start on the long lead time items first, or the ones with the highest likelihood of being delayed. Dialing in the gigapressses is probably one of the big ones. But I'm a bit worried that they are prioritizing MY production in Austin atm not CT. I hope it turns around soon, maybe the CT production line is much more capable because of the change in construction with the CT? I hope they figure that out in the Fremont line soon...
 

cyberda

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I'm guessing they'll get 50K out in 2022 and a few thousand out in 2021.

...I want to be wrong ^-^

-Crissa
I'm thinking about the same ballpark... with maybe in the hundreds for this 2021 year, and then north of 50k for 2022. This is assuming they have relatively few issues during production startup (that is a big IF).
Still a lot to learn about the actual production... my assumption is that its going to be simpler/faster than any other Tesla vehicle.

I think my reservation was in the 400k range. Which would be like a 24/25 model year?.... unless their ramp-up is much faster than previous models.
 

Diehard

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To give people perspective, that's about 55 Costcos (Costcoes??), or about half a Costco from Idiocracy.
For those that have taken Boeing factory tour in Washington. That was 1.1 M square feet. It felt like a big indoor city. 7.9 is just ridiculous.
 

DarinCT

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For those that have taken Boeing factory tour in Washington. That was 1.1 M square feet. It felt like a big indoor city. 7.9 is just ridiculous.

Love this comparison. How big will Giga Austin be? About 7x the size of an airplane factory but for automobiles.
 
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intimidator

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CT prices will NOT be what Elon initially said!

Copper is up in cost, steel is up, silver is up (r/wallstreetsilver), electricity is up, chips are up (if you can find them), oil is up....

To think Elon can "master" the lowball prices he initially spoke of...real estate for sale in the Florida Everglades if you want.
Sadly, I think you are going to be proven right.

When I ordered my CyberTruck at $69,000 I thought that would be a lot for a truck, but not crazy so it seemed like a fair price....happy to pay it.

Now, I think, by the time they actually deliver my Cybertruck, it will probably be $79,000. At least.
 

VolklKatana

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Sadly, I think you are going to be proven right.

When I ordered my CyberTruck at $69,000 I thought that would be a lot for a truck, but not crazy so it seemed like a fair price....happy to pay it.

Now, I think, by the time they actually deliver my Cybertruck, it will probably be $79,000. At least.
you could just say youre adding FSD ;)
 

MEDICALJMP

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Please, I implore you, let your fear, uncertainty and doubt cause you to immediately cancel your Cybertruck reservation.

Don't delay. Do it now. In all that is holy, CANCEL CYBERTRUCK. You now you want to.

Your spouse wants you to.

The neighbor's dog wants you to.

Do it now. Ease that burden on your soul.
 

drcarric2650

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Please, I implore you, let your fear, uncertainty and doubt cause you to immediately cancel your Cybertruck reservation.

Don't delay. Do it now. In all that is holy, CANCEL CYBERTRUCK. You now you want to.

Your spouse wants you to.

The neighbor's dog wants you to.

Do it now. Ease that burden on your soul.
LOL, good try Jeff, but after doing the reservation math, I’m at 400,000, I ordered a second cybertruck, reservation around 1 million, so in 4 years I can get my first, and get my. Second one in 8. Since I already need a truck, I preordered a lightning and a rivian, to hold me over till the cybertruck comes in.
 

flowerlandfilms

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I think given the cleverness of Elon and co when it comes to underground marketing, you will see a steady increase in information and public appearances of the Cybertruck in the ramp up to production/availabilty, i.e. we will know it's coming when we start hearing more about it, silence means it aint ready yit.
 

cyberda

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Please, I implore you, let your fear, uncertainty and doubt cause you to immediately cancel your Cybertruck reservation.

Don't delay. Do it now. In all that is holy, CANCEL CYBERTRUCK. You now you want to.

Your spouse wants you to.

The neighbor's dog wants you to.

Do it now. Ease that burden on your soul.
Be careful of what you wish for. If there were wholesale cancellations of CT reservations it would mean;
a) Tesla is in trouble and the FUD is on their ability to manufacture/deliver the CT in a timely manner or
b) The CT itself turns out to be a poorly built/performing product.
 

Lasttoy

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No reason to rush. We can wait till next year. Think , forward. More gadgets added. Better software, think Plaid SW. I'm not in a hurry, I'd rather wait three to six months to have MORE standard items in the CT. Not options to pay extra for later. I bet the option list will drive price to 100k in a heartbeat.
 
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