Cybertruck deliveries based on progress of Giga Texas

jerhenderson

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Considering inflation is NOT political, but a Federal Reserve (PRIVATE banking syndicate) idea, all one has to do is LOOK at the price of housing, food, electricity, health care, tuition...and inflation is RAMPANT. It's just the Federal Reserve keeps shifting "what is in the 'CPI'". They take OUT things that are inflating (things people mostly need/use) and replace it with things NOT widely used/needed.

Pretty good RACKET eh?
Rampant? Are you very young? Inflation is at historical lows.
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jerhenderson

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I'm guessing they'll get 50K out in 2022 and a few thousand out in 2021.

...I want to be wrong ^-^

-Crissa
the question is what do they make first? the double or the Tri? I'm about 46k in line for the Tri.
 

LoneWolfO6

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Looking at the videos of Giga Texas, and comparing those to Giga Berlin, is the realistic estimate that Texas will be finished by late Summer?
Which could mean rolling some customers Cybertrucks out the door by Nov/Dec 2021?

I have seen shot in the dark estimates that in December '21 Tesla could produce/delivery 10,000 Cybertrucks for the month.

With a WAG that Texas will then be able to produce 120-130,000 Cybertrucks in 2022.

Assuming out of the 600,000 per orders, about half drop out when their # is called, and we use a factor of Pi, then substract windspeed, is it fair to say if your # is 325,000, expect delivery some time in 2023?

......Might be enough time to take delivery of a Rivian, enjoy it for 2 years, then trade "up" to the Cybertruck.
Those are some very big numbers? When the Model 3 was introduced the plant was already build and the staff trained, and they still couldn’t keep up with initial orders? Don’t see too many CT coming out of Texas in a plant that when finished just turned on the lights? Have to work out the bugs still. Lol.
 

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if production begins by this year, I bet the over in production for next , excess of 100k.

Caveats, build at least 1,000 in December and supply chain can keep pace
 

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Those are some very big numbers? When the Model 3 was introduced the plant was already build and the staff trained, and they still couldn’t keep up with initial orders? Don’t see too many CT coming out of Texas in a plant that when finished just turned on the lights? Have to work out the bugs still. Lol.
You're not wrong that there's always a learning curve, but that doesn't mean the ramp-up to production is happening serially. The engineers have spent the last 18 months working out those manufacturing details, and rumor says there's a pilot line at Freemont.

Regardless, the Austin factory itself is a mastery of chaos. They're installing equipment and calibrating robots, even though they are missing walls, half the roof, and in some places a dirt floor! They've already got the casting machines cranking out hundreds of MY parts a day, with the roof still being installed nearby. It's insane, I've never seen anything like it.

Honestly, my concern with CT shipments is the 4680 availability at production volumes.
 

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Rampant? Are you very young? Inflation is at historical lows.
Sorry, but he's right and you're wrong. Inflation is running at the highest rate since 1992, and was 5% higher in May versus only May 2020. Government overspending is rampant. A quick search will confirm the below;

  • The core PCE price index, the Federal Reserve's favorite measure of inflation, rose in May at its fastest since 1992.
  • Goldman Sachs analysts said this "one-off inflationary boost" will over time become a "one-off disinflationary drag" over time.
  • The U.S. inflation rate as of May 2021 was 5.0% compared to a year earlier. That means consumer prices increased by more than 5% over the course of a year—the sharpest such increase since August 2008.
Cheers
 

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When the Model 3 was introduced the plant was already build and the staff trained, and they still couldn’t keep up with initial orders?
This is untrue. They had a building, but it leaked like a sieve (about what we're seeing in Austin) and we had an el-nino (a year with twice our normal rain) year both the year before and year after the release of the Model 3.

They eventually built tents to hold additional lines, and doubled the staff before they managed.

So no, they weren't trained already and the factory wasn't built.

Today Tesla has more room under the roof at Austin than the entire NUMMI plant's original footprint. And they have half a dozen operating lines producing cars, not just one. So they have more trained staff capable of stepping up to the new model.

This is why people say that established car markers are better positioned to make EVs: They already have staff and buildings. But you have to know how to train them, have enough loyalty that they will follow the new factories being built, as the lines shift around. Make the machines that make the machines.

-Crissa
 

LoneWolfO6

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This is untrue. They had a building, but it leaked like a sieve (about what we're seeing in Austin) and we had an el-nino (a year with twice our normal rain) year both the year before and year after the release of the Model 3.

They eventually built tents to hold additional lines, and doubled the staff before they managed.

So no, they weren't trained already and the factory wasn't built.

Today Tesla has more room under the roof at Austin than the entire NUMMI plant's original footprint. And they have half a dozen operating lines producing cars, not just one. So they have more trained staff capable of stepping up to the new model.

This is why people say that established car markers are better positioned to make EVs: They already have staff and buildings. But you have to know how to train them, have enough loyalty that they will follow the new factories being built, as the lines shift around. Make the machines that make the machines.

-Crissa
I stand corrected, lol thanks
 

Crissa

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Sorry, but he's right and you're wrong. Inflation is running at the highest rate since 1992
No. You're wrong. One month is not a measure of overall inflation.

Flatly, your evidence says you're wrong.

What happened last year? Recession. That means, to get back to the value that was lost you need inflation.

What happened in 1992? Recovery from a recession.

What happened in May? Recovery from recession.

So. You're taking a point out of context, which makes you wrong.

-Crissa

https://jabberwocking.com/chart-of-...ation-is-up-4-2-real-inflation-is-up-about-3/
(The line in this graph is supposed to rise, because population increases. It can only decline if population declines.)

https://jabberwocking.com/theres-still-no-real-sign-of-inflation-in-the-future/
(The top line in this graph is dropping because there is no increasing inflation over a longer period.)
 

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jerhenderson

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Sorry, but he's right and you're wrong. Inflation is running at the highest rate since 1992, and was 5% higher in May versus only May 2020. Government overspending is rampant. A quick search will confirm the below;

  • The core PCE price index, the Federal Reserve's favorite measure of inflation, rose in May at its fastest since 1992.
  • Goldman Sachs analysts said this "one-off inflationary boost" will over time become a "one-off disinflationary drag" over time.
  • The U.S. inflation rate as of May 2021 was 5.0% compared to a year earlier. That means consumer prices increased by more than 5% over the course of a year—the sharpest such increase since August 2008.
Cheers
1992 - yeah you're young.
 

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DarinCT

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Regarding inflation, it's been sold to us as the scariest Boogeyman. When you see real inflation, you'll know. Sure, the price of some goods has gone up, sheet of plywood used to be 20 or 25, closer to 60 now. That's just some splinters (pun intended).

You'll know when it's real inflation because everyone over 50 will start telling stories about when they were younger.

(I have an advanced degree in economics and I am still being cheeky because you ain't seen nothing yet.)
 
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