Cybertruck Production Per Year for X IDRA 9T at Giga Texas

[Ogre]

Brand loyalty is quickly forgotten.. a handful of years and it's gone.

I think this is why GM is pushing so hard on advertising their EVs even though they don’t have enough to sell. They would prefer someone defers buying a car rather than someone buying a Tesla.

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[Cyberman]

Yeah... hard to nail it.

The question could be, how many people settle for second best ?.

Spec wise, there may be daylight between the best and second best.
Brand loyalty is quickly forgotten.. a handful of years and it's gone.

Yeah, but the competition isn't making SS trucks, yuge difference.

 

[Crissa]

Yeah... hard to nail it.

The question could be, how many people settle for second best ?.

Spec wise, there may be daylight between the best and second best.
Brand loyalty is quickly forgotten.. a handful of years and it's gone.

I have never owned the same brand twice.

-Crissa

 

[charliemagpie]

The Brown and Gold fashion of the 70's sure was ugly. And Top Hats of the past look stupid to me.

Today's look WILL NOT appeal tomorrow. What is in store tomorrow?

Plastic wrap may be the new thing. Or SS naked.

 

[Ogre]

Yeah, but the competition isn't making SS trucks, yuge difference.

Or many trucks at all. Though Ford and Rivian are starting to get a few out the door.

 

[Cyberman]

The Brown and Gold fashion of the 70's sure was ugly. And Top Hats of the past look stupid to me.

Today's look WILL NOT appeal tomorrow. What is in store tomorrow?

Plastic wrap may be the new thing. Or SS naked.

Hmm. I kinda like it. Driving w/no clothes.

 

[Crissa]

Hmm. I kinda like it. Driving w/no clothes.

The seats better not be leather, then.

-Crissa

 

[HaulingAss]

We have NO IDEA what the demand is. Why do people keep saying that we do when the only one that knows is Tesla and they haven't said squat for 2 years about the reservation list.

Tesla only has a little better idea of actual demand than a keen observer can glean from the available information. Demand is huge, no one knows how huge. Demand will vary based upon a number of things that are fluid and mostly unknown to anyone at this point in time. The biggest one is price. Demand is very sensitive to pricing and there are inflection points in the pricing that can trigger outsized fluctuations in demand. Tesla will use the pricing to somewhat control demand while erring on the side of pricing it low enough that there is always a waiting list. That means they are unlikely to have to lower the price, even if the economy is softer than expected. But they have to caution against pricing it so low that waiting lists perpetually extend up to a year or more because that makes for a worse customer experience and also because it makes it more difficult to forcast how much they will have to pay for raw materials and components.

Because demand is wildly sensitive to pricing, there is no fixed amount of demand. Demand also varies with:

1) State of the economy and interest rates.
2) Wait times Obviously, there is more demand for a truck you can buy and take home today than there is for a truck that you have to wait a week, month or year for. But, this is a strange one because a truck you can buy today implies lower demand (or higher production) vs. a truck you have to wait a year for. This dynamic helps throttle demand when availability is low and stimulate demand when availability is high. The kind of buyer that steps in when wait times are short to non-existent are those who have the money to buy whatever they want and can't be bothered with waiting because they can take the CT or leave it. They will only buy CT on a whim.
3) Included features in each trim. Obviously, this goes hand/hand with pricing.
4) User reports and reviews from the field.

There are a host of other smaller factors that can boost or throttle demand but the biggest unknown, by far, is pricing. And Tesla has control over that and will adjust the release pricing, and included features, based on their internal forecasts looking out at least a couple of years. Because, ideally, they will not have to adjust pricing until they have fulfilled all the initial pre-orders.

The more I think about this, the more I think the pricing will be substantially higher than originally anounced. Not because Tesla is between a rock and a hard place in terms of getting it built for the announced pricing, but because it's problematic if the pricing is so low that new orders cause wait times to go out multiple years. It's one thing to have initial reservations so large that it takes two years to fill them all, but to have the waitlist continue to get longer as time goes on indicates they underpriced it. That's far from ideal for everyone involved and it's better to price it to ensure that doesn't happen while being super cautious the pricing is low enough that they don't scare everyone away if the economy falters or interest rates continue rising.

The last thing they want to have to do is lower pricing within the first year or two because they run out of demand. This is why I say Cybertruck will nearly unobtanium for years unless you have a reservation or are willing to pay the inevitable scalpers. Not too long ago people were selling used Model 3's and Model Y's for thousands more than you could order a new one for and that was years after the Model 3 was released and over a year after the release of Model Y.

The market for new pickup trucks in the US alone is over 2 million per year and the Cybertruck is likely to expand that number substantially. In other words, most Cybertrucks will displace an ICE pickup, but a good number of sales will displace a car or SUV. That could grow the pickup segment of the market considerably although there is an upper limit to how many Cybertrucks Tesla can make depending upon raw materials and battery supplies.

We know that we cannot believe the spread sheet because it uses the Tesla order number and Tesla order numbers include everything they sell (as far as we know). What would you say about the demand if you found out that there are only 500K reservations and that there is a 30% take rate divided over, say, 3 trims. I have no idea what the reservation number is but there will be a take rate, there will be several trims that aren't manufactured all at once (initially), and there are other factors that determine when a reservation number comes up and so how many need to be built in what timeframe. I am making this up out of whole cloth, but if it turns out that there are only 150K reservations that would upgrade to a quad-motor trim then 2 gigapresses would be adequate for that run. I am just saying that this whole thing is very fluid and that even 'thinking' about a 500K run rate is too much.

You're on crack if you believe there might only be 500,000 Cybertruck reservations. While it's possible the estimated 3 million+ number is over-estimating the actual number, it's a virtual certainty it's over 1 million, and likely closer to 2 million or more. I do think a 30-50% reservation to order conversion rate is possible, depending upon how much higher the release pricing turns out to be, but new orders will add to the backlog at least as fast as Tesla can fulfill existing orders so I'm not sure why a low conversion matters.

The only reason thinking about a 500K annual run rate is too much (at least in the next 2-3 years) is because it will be hard to source enough batteries considering their demand in other Tesla EV's and both grid level battery storage as well as Powerwalls. In time, Cybertruck can ramp to a half-million and likely will. That would be less than a 25% share of the pickup market in the US. There is no reason this will not happen because the Cybertruck will be able to demonstate it is superior to any 1/2 ton truck out there in terms of cost of ownership and also payload capacity, towing capacity and efficency.

 

[Crissa]

One caveat: US demand for light trucks is 12 million per year.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/199980/us-truck-sales-since-1951/

It's kinda nuts. Tesla already occupies a large part of car market, when you think about it that way.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/199974/us-car-sales-since-1951/

-Crissa

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Tesla only has a little better idea of actual demand than a keen observer can glean from the available information. Demand is huge, no one knows how huge. Demand will vary based upon a number of things that are fluid and mostly unknown to anyone at this point in time. The biggest one is price. Demand is very sensitive to pricing and there are inflection points in the pricing that can trigger outsized fluctuations in demand. Tesla will use the pricing to somewhat control demand while erring on the side of pricing it low enough that there is always a waiting list. That means they are unlikely to have to lower the price, even if the economy is softer than expected. But they have to caution against pricing it so low that waiting lists perpetually extend up to a year or more because that makes for a worse customer experience and also because it makes it more difficult to forcast how much they will have to pay for raw materials and components.

Because demand is wildly sensitive to pricing, there is no fixed amount of demand. Demand also varies with:

1) State of the economy and interest rates.
2) Wait times Obviously, there is more demand for a truck you can buy and take home today than there is for a truck that you have to wait a week, month or year for. But, this is a strange one because a truck you can buy today implies lower demand (or higher production) vs. a truck you have to wait a year for. This dynamic helps throttle demand when availability is low and stimulate demand when availability is high. The kind of buyer that steps in when wait times are short to non-existent are those who have the money to buy whatever they want and can't be bothered with waiting because they can take the CT or leave it. They will only buy CT on a whim.
3) Included features in each trim. Obviously, this goes hand/hand with pricing.
4) User reports and reviews from the field.

There are a host of other smaller factors that can boost or throttle demand but the biggest unknown, by far, is pricing. And Tesla has control over that and will adjust the release pricing, and included features, based on their internal forecasts looking out at least a couple of years. Because, ideally, they will not have to adjust pricing until they have fulfilled all the initial pre-orders.

The more I think about this, the more I think the pricing will be substantially higher than originally anounced. Not because Tesla is between a rock and a hard place in terms of getting it built for the announced pricing, but because it's problematic if the pricing is so low that new orders cause wait times to go out multiple years. It's one thing to have initial reservations so large that it takes two years to fill them all, but to have the waitlist continue to get longer as time goes on indicates they underpriced it. That's far from ideal for everyone involved and it's better to price it to ensure that doesn't happen while being super cautious the pricing is low enough that they don't scare everyone away if the economy falters or interest rates continue rising.

The last thing they want to have to do is lower pricing within the first year or two because they run out of demand. This is why I say Cybertruck will nearly unobtanium for years unless you have a reservation or are willing to pay the inevitable scalpers. Not too long ago people were selling used Model 3's and Model Y's for thousands more than you could order a new one for and that was years after the Model 3 was released and over a year after the release of Model Y.

The market for new pickup trucks in the US alone is over 2 million per year and the Cybertruck is likely to expand that number substantially. In other words, most Cybertrucks will displace an ICE pickup, but a good number of sales will displace a car or SUV. That could grow the pickup segment of the market considerably although there is an upper limit to how many Cybertrucks Tesla can make depending upon raw materials and battery supplies.




You're on crack if you believe there might only be 500,000 Cybertruck reservations. While it's possible the estimated 3 million+ number is over-estimating the actual number, it's a virtual certainty it's over 1 million, and likely closer to 2 million or more. I do think a 30-50% reservation to order conversion rate is possible, depending upon how much higher the release pricing turns out to be, but new orders will add to the backlog at least as fast as Tesla can fulfill existing orders so I'm not sure why a low conversion matters.

The only reason thinking about a 500K annual run rate is too much (at least in the next 2-3 years) is because it will be hard to source enough batteries considering their demand in other Tesla EV's and both grid level battery storage as well as Powerwalls. In time, Cybertruck can ramp to a half-million and likely will. That would be less than a 25% share of the pickup market in the US. There is no reason this will not happen because the Cybertruck will be able to demonstate it is superior to any 1/2 ton truck out there in terms of cost of ownership and also payload capacity, towing capacity and efficency.

I do not disagree with the points you are raising vis-a-vis demand factors. Also, my comment about 500K reservations was a 'what if' question to see if that would affect the notion of demand.

I doubt anyone would challenge the factors that affect demand. My comment was directed at the reservation numbers people tout, which seem entirely based on the spreadsheet and what other people say, and not on any factual information. I am certain that there is a relationship between the order number and the number of reservations; I just don't know what that algorithm is.

I have no issue with whatever the number of reservations actualy is.

On the supply side Tesla's price-vs-demand dependency is less clear than normal. Tesla, trying to disrupt the auto industry and expand the adoption of electrification, is motivated to price their vehicles competitively to ICE counterparts. Their original price points for the Cybertruck trims were very attractive against existing full-sized ICE pickup trucks and I suspect that their future prices will follow this logic. If so, the demand would likely continue to substantially exceed availability, and that would violate your otherwise reasonable argument.

 

[HaulingAss]

I do not disagree with the points you are raising vis-a-vis demand factors. Also, my comment about 500K reservations was a 'what if' question to see if that would affect the notion of demand.

I doubt anyone would challenge the factors that affect demand. My comment was directed at the reservation numbers people tout, which seem entirely based on the spreadsheet and what other people say, and not on any factual information. I am certain that there is a relationship between the order number and the number of reservations; I just don't know what that algorithm is.

I have no issue with whatever the number of reservations actualy is.

On the supply side Tesla's price-vs-demand dependency is less clear than normal. Tesla, trying to disrupt the auto industry and expand the adoption of electrification, is motivated to price their vehicles competitively to ICE counterparts. Their original price points for the Cybertruck trims were very attractive against existing full-sized ICE pickup trucks and I suspect that their future prices will follow this logic. If so, the demand would likely continue to substantially exceed availability, and that would violate your otherwise reasonable argument.

My argument was that Tesla would price it erring on the lower side so even if there was a recession, there would still be demand without having to lower further. However, I think the truck is hard to compare to ICE trucks because it so much better in just about every way. It's not apples to apples comparison, even when comparing against fully loaded $90K ICE trucks.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

My argument was that Tesla would price it erring on the lower side so even if there was a recession, there would still be demand without having to lower further. However, I think the truck is hard to compare to ICE trucks because it so much better in just about every way. It's not apples to apples comparison, even when comparing against fully loaded $90K ICE trucks.

I agree with your pricing evaluation. I was saying ICE because the other BEV trucks will be priced higher than the ICE trucks. Though I completely agree about the functionality of the CT over ICE 'equivalents', it was Elon that benchmarked the price, power, size and weight (etc.) of the CT against the Ford F150, and of course Tesla doesn't want to displace other BEVs (just other ICE trucks).

 

[charliemagpie]

Hypothetical
If the truck was launched at $70,000 but with Inflation it could now be $78,000.

We now have a dilemma… The prices have increased due to inflation, but we maybe need to further raise even more in order to quell demand.

---------------------------------------
SO before even one is delivered to customer..

1, We have raised the price due to inflation
2, we have raised again for the purpose of making it unaffordable to a large niche. This is what it amounts to.
_____________________________

That can't work. There has to be a better way.

The better way is to ramp it up to 500,000 by Mid 2024. I don't see batteries as a constraint.

 

[Crissa]

The better way is to ramp it up to 500,000 by Mid 2024. I don't see batteries as a constraint.

Nor is cash on hand.

They will hurt their future prospects if they cement the Cybertruck as 'unaffordable toy' by raising the price to affect demand. When the price comes down, it won't be 'hey, that fancy truck is now in the reach of the rest of us,' it will be, 'hey, that fancy truck was useless and now they have to discount it.'

And all the reservation holder burned by it being pulled out of their reach will be, well, burned. A million reservations is alot.

-Crissa

 

[firsttruck]

Nor is cash on hand.

They will hurt their future prospects if they cement the Cybertruck as 'unaffordable toy' by raising the price to affect demand. When the price comes down, it won't be 'hey, that fancy truck is now in the reach of the rest of us,' it will be, 'hey, that fancy truck was useless and now they have to discount it.'

And all the reservation holder burned by it being pulled out of their reach will be, well, burned. A million reservations is alot.

-Crissa

Yup, I will feel buuuurrrrrnnntttt

Every reservation holder should be able to buy at least their first Cybertruck at close to the orginal price.

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