Crissa

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I was more wondering if this has helped us glean what Tesla means by that for future giga factories.
Tesla seems to be of the opinion no factory is ever complete, they always have large sections of the Fremont facility being worked on.

-Crissa





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Ehninger1212

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I have not a single doubt we will see Y's Rollin out of that factory by Q4.. maybe even end of Q3. CT's would be a stretch but it would be cool if we saw even 100 by EOY 21.
 

cybrtrk_maybe

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who needs a factory??? Tony Stark built the iron man suit in a cave. :cool:
 

Bigvbear

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There will be model Y production from Giga Texas this year? maybe. CT? definitely not

why do i say that, lets look at two pieces of evidence.

1. Model Y production lines are figured out, the bugs worked out and they know what it takes to make them (equipment wise). So it's easier to replicate that to a new factory just like they did in China and now Berlin. CT is a different beast and does not use the same manufacturing techniques, so they have to develop a new production line with all its bugs. Rumors have it they are doing a pilot line at Freemont, but there has been no evidence to support that speculation.

2. If you order a new refreshed model X today, its estimated delivery is Jan-feb of 2022 This is a vehicle they already produce and have the bugs worked out of the assembly line. The modifications for the new model (which isn't that different) should not impact the line much. same with the Model S, even though that is showing oct-nov delivery dates, assuming those are getting the 4680 cells, we know for sure the plaid+ is and it says mid 2022 delivery.

I believe they are waiting for (or struggling to get) 4680 cells to ramp up production. The delays on the new model X and S tells me they are not confident they are able to mass produce these cells in the sufficient quantities to support production. Remember they only made about 55,000 model S and X Vehicles in 2020 vs the 450,000 model 3 and Y. We expect the CT to be also high demand. The Semi has also been delayed (again another that uses 4680 cells).

Remember every model to date has not hit it's delivery target, all have been delayed.

1620756921580.png
 

alan auerbach

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There will be model Y production from Giga Texas this year? maybe. CT? definitely not

why do i say that, lets look at two pieces of evidence.

1. Model Y production lines are figured out, the bugs worked out and they know what it takes to make them (equipment wise). So it's easier to replicate that to a new factory just like they did in China and now Berlin. CT is a different beast and does not use the same manufacturing techniques, so they have to develop a new production line with all its bugs. Rumors have it they are doing a pilot line at Freemont, but there has been no evidence to support that speculation.

2. If you order a new refreshed model X today, its estimated delivery is Jan-feb of 2022 This is a vehicle they already produce and have the bugs worked out of the assembly line. The modifications for the new model (which isn't that different) should not impact the line much. same with the Model S, even though that is showing oct-nov delivery dates, assuming those are getting the 4680 cells, we know for sure the plaid+ is and it says mid 2022 delivery.

I believe they are waiting for (or struggling to get) 4680 cells to ramp up production. The delays on the new model X and S tells me they are not confident they are able to mass produce these cells in the sufficient quantities to support production. Remember they only made about 55,000 model S and X Vehicles in 2020 vs the 450,000 model 3 and Y. We expect the CT to be also high demand. The Semi has also been delayed (again another that uses 4680 cells).

Remember all have been delayed.

1620756921580.png
".... every model to date has not hit it's delivery target, ...."

Yes, which may be why Tesla spokespeople (insofar as they still exist at all) now feel it's better to underpromise and overperform.
 
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VolklKatana

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Remember, they are piloting the CT line in Fremont. So we will know when they are installing that machinery in Texas as I would suspect we see a pretty steady stream of semis with large equipment pulling in there, most importantly of which is the new 8000T gigapress. We have current examples of how long it takes them to assemble these, so as soon as that puppy is up and running, we can start extrapolating from there.
 

Red61224

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What is the source of that article? I watch the construction videos a few times per week, and there is NO part of that building that would be considered close to finished. Yes they're working at an amazing pace. But as Elon has said. "If we're lucky we may get some production by the end of 2021". As far as moving in equipment. That is exactly what needs to be done. During construction while you have easy access you bring in massive equipment that would be a nightmare to try and move in after walls go up and access becomes very limited.
I agree on the construction timeline but evidently they are listening to the advice and installing equipment as they build, (Gigapress and Robots), but even with that it is still going to take time to flip the switch and see Cybertrucks spitting out the back door. I am patient.
 

CostcoSamples

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I'm familiar with construction and fully realize the monumental task of building this factory. I chose to stay positive and believe they will start pumping out a few CTs by October/November.
 

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