- First Name
- Jul 8, 2020
- Reaction score
- Santa Cruz
- 2014 Zero S, 2013 Mazda 3
".... every model to date has not hit it's delivery target, ...."There will be model Y production from Giga Texas this year? maybe. CT? definitely not
why do i say that, lets look at two pieces of evidence.
1. Model Y production lines are figured out, the bugs worked out and they know what it takes to make them (equipment wise). So it's easier to replicate that to a new factory just like they did in China and now Berlin. CT is a different beast and does not use the same manufacturing techniques, so they have to develop a new production line with all its bugs. Rumors have it they are doing a pilot line at Freemont, but there has been no evidence to support that speculation.
2. If you order a new refreshed model X today, its estimated delivery is Jan-feb of 2022 This is a vehicle they already produce and have the bugs worked out of the assembly line. The modifications for the new model (which isn't that different) should not impact the line much. same with the Model S, even though that is showing oct-nov delivery dates, assuming those are getting the 4680 cells, we know for sure the plaid+ is and it says mid 2022 delivery.
I believe they are waiting for (or struggling to get) 4680 cells to ramp up production. The delays on the new model X and S tells me they are not confident they are able to mass produce these cells in the sufficient quantities to support production. Remember they only made about 55,000 model S and X Vehicles in 2020 vs the 450,000 model 3 and Y. We expect the CT to be also high demand. The Semi has also been delayed (again another that uses 4680 cells).
Remember all have been delayed.
I agree on the construction timeline but evidently they are listening to the advice and installing equipment as they build, (Gigapress and Robots), but even with that it is still going to take time to flip the switch and see Cybertrucks spitting out the back door. I am patient.What is the source of that article? I watch the construction videos a few times per week, and there is NO part of that building that would be considered close to finished. Yes they're working at an amazing pace. But as Elon has said. "If we're lucky we may get some production by the end of 2021". As far as moving in equipment. That is exactly what needs to be done. During construction while you have easy access you bring in massive equipment that would be a nightmare to try and move in after walls go up and access becomes very limited.