Cybertruck Production Per Year for X IDRA 9T at Giga Texas

[Jhodgesatmb]

Tesla has a pretty good idea. We also know orders are still coming in consistently from the spreadsheep. For every previous launch, pre order size was indicative of demand.

I am not saying it is wrong; I am saying that we don't know. There is a difference. And what is a spreadsheep anyway

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[Ogre]

I am not saying it is wrong; I am saying that we don't know. There is a difference. And what is a spreadsheep anyway

If you grew up on a farm you’d know all about spreadsheep…

 

[charliemagpie]

IF
the backlog is 3X more than the forecast yearly demand

THEN
Install sufficient 9T to fast track production to bring it back to 3 month wait.

AND
When done, use the extra(s) 9T for something else


We have 2 projects here. Current demand & Backlog.

There is over 10 Billion profit as backlog... 10 Billion which could be cancelled !!

What should we do ?

 

[firsttruck]

IF
the backlog is 3X more than the forecast yearly demand

THEN
Install sufficient 9T to fast track production to bring it back to 3 month wait.

AND
When done, use the extra(s) 9T for something else
....

Yup, if spare capacity in IDRA 9T line could do parts for Cybervan and Semi.

 

[Ogre]

IF
the backlog is 3X more than the forecast yearly demand

THEN
Install sufficient 9T to fast track production to bring it back to 3 month wait.

AND
When done, use the extra(s) 9T for something else


We have 2 projects here. Current demand & Backlog.

There is over 10 Billion profit as backlog... 10 Billion which could be cancelled !!

What should we do ?

Indeed. 109% true.

Except I don’t think there is an after. I suspect Tesla delivers 500k Cybertrucks per year well into the future.

 

[Cyberman]

Now the real question is how many IDRA machines do you need to sustain 500k/year.

I would say four, but maybe augment to six for down time/maintenance. That's a lotta damn G-presses.

 

[firsttruck]

Indeed. 109% true.

Except I don’t think there is an after. I suspect Tesla delivers 500k Cybertrucks per year well into the future.

By 2028 the global market for pickup trucks is projected to be 4.8 million units annually.

Tesla should easily have demand of over 500 million pickup trucks a year.

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Pickup Truck Market to Touch Valuation of $253.93 Billion by 2028 | Global Sales of Pickup Trucks to Surpass 4.8 million Units by 2028
November 21, 2022
SkyQuest Technology Consulting Pvt. Ltd.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pickup-truck-market-touch-valuation-142800387.html

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Pickup Trucks - Worldwide
https://www.statista.com/outlook/mmo/passenger-cars/pickup-trucks/worldwide#unit-sales

* Revenue in the Pickup trucks market segment is projected to reach US$113,100.00m in 2022.

* Revenue is expected to show an annual growth rate (CAGR 2022-2027) of 0.73%, resulting in a projected market volume of US$117,300.00m by 2027.

* Pickup trucks market segment unit sales are expected to reach 3,866.4K vehicles in 2027.

* The volume weighted average price of Pickup trucks market segment in 2022 is expected to amount to US$30.87k.

* From an international perspective it is shown that the most revenue will be generated in the United States (US$76,440.00m in 2022).


Some pickup truck unit estimates for the top brands for year 2027
1,144,700 Ford
768,600 Chevrolet
745,400 Toyota
440,300 RAM
299,800 GMC
229,300 Nissan

------------------------------------------------

 

[Ogre]

By 2028 the global market for pickup trucks is projected to be 4.8 million units annually.

Tesla should easily have demand of over 500 million pickup trucks a year.

That would be truly impressive.

Here I was thinking 1m a year was a reasonable high estimate of run rate.

 

[firsttruck]

That would be truly impressive.

Here I was thinking 1m a year was a reasonable high estimate of run rate.

Pre COVID-19 pandemic (year 2018), Full-size Trucks (not smaller trucks like Tacoma, Colorado, Ranger, etc), U.S. only:
Ford F-Series sold over 900K units in one year with GMC/Chevy Sierra/Silverado series selling over 805K units and RAM 536K units.


---------------------------------

Year Wrap-Up: What is the Best Selling Truck in 2018? Here You Go!
Andre Smirnov - January 3, 2019
https://tfltruck.com/2019/01/year-wrap-up-what-is-the-best-selling-truck-in-2018-here-you-go/

.....
Midsize Trucks (USA)
Did Toyota sell a quarter of a million Tacomas in 2018? They came very close! The Tacoma sales increased by a huge 24.0% for a total of 245,659 Tacomas. Take a look at the sales data in the table below.
Speaking of big sales increases, Chevy Colorado and GMC Canyon both grew sales in a big way. The Colorado increased by 19.3% over 2017, but it’s still not close to challenging the first place Tacoma. The Chevy Colorado and GMC Canyon together combine for 168,334 midsize trucks in 2018.
The Nissan Frontier still had a strong showing in 2018 with a very good 7.1% increase over 2017. The Honda Ridgeline continues to decline in sales. The Honda lost -12% percent and moved to fifth place in overall sales.

 

[CyberGus]

After 1 week of orders

 

[Crissa]

Except I don’t think there is an after. I suspect Tesla delivers 500k+ Cybertrucks per year well into the future.

Fixed it for you. I don't think Tesla anticipates an end to the ramp.

-Crissa

 

[RVAC]

We know that there is only room in the die-casting area of the factory for 2 9K-ton gigapresses so you are probably getting ahead of yourself with that prediction. Take a look at how many Model Ys they are delivering at present (i.e., about 2,000/week, with 4 operating 6K-ton gigapresses). It is very likely that they will not exceed 2,000 CTs per week in 2023.

There's definitely room for more.

 

[Cyberman]

Indeed. 109% true.

Except I don’t think there is an after. I suspect Tesla delivers 500k Cybertrucks per year well into the future.

Totally possible. At 500k per year, Tesla could sell 'em out for the next decade or more.
(although per my math, 109.4% true)

 

[firsttruck]

Totally possible. At 500k per year, Tesla could sell 'em out for the next decade or more.
(although per my math, 109.4% true)

The full-size Cybertruck (not compact Wolverine version) already has payload and towing that competes with lower model ICE super duty series (F250/2500).
If Cybertruck has passthru and heavy duty vault cover the Cybertruck would take sales from SUVs.

In just the U.S. I think the full-size Cybertruck could sell 750K-900K annually.

 

[charliemagpie]

Yeah... hard to nail it.

The question could be, how many people settle for second best ?.

Spec wise, there may be daylight between the best and second best.
Brand loyalty is quickly forgotten.. a handful of years and it's gone.

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