Cybertruck timeline schedule prediction -- Agree or Disagree?

[Green-Mario]

This may be a stupid question I suppose. But here she goes.

We know what will be making the truck body (9K IDRA machine), and there have been lots of questions about what machine will make he unibody and bend the stainless into the structural body shell. What was used to create the coupe prototypes they have now? Is the general consensus that the current prototypes are NOT unibody stainless? Perhaps just panels to get dimensions and whatnot worked out? We know that the body is not a casting, and was welded from many pieces the old school way (and likely by hand?).

SpaceX has been working with cold-rolled stainless for a good few years now. What are the chances a machine created for SpaceX needs is planned for use/order to create/fold the unibody? That appears to be one of the last ?'s we have around machines needed to start production. I do feel that mid 2023 is still a pretty generous timeline for production start... I would not be surprised if its not late 2023. I am worried about 4680. So little info, very little production, and a huge cloud of mystery into the whats, whys, and hows around the limitations and ramp plans. 4680 has and will be the limiting factor in producing all of Tesla's products and it is showing no signs at all of picking up production at a pace to meet any of these demands from any single 1 product line.

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[Crissa]

They used standard score and bend (I guess they're called 'brake' ) machines.

We don't know exactly what the new machines will look like, as you pointed out, they experimented with many types over at SpaceX.

-Crissa

 

[SparkChaser]

There are automated power brakes but I would et there will be linier processes that do not involve the individual cut pieces to be bent 1 at time.

 

[Throwcomputer]

4680 has and will be the limiting factor in producing all of Tesla's products and it is showing no signs at all of picking up production at a pace to meet any of these demands from any single 1 product line.

Shows no signs of picking up production to meet demands in a year???

Let me remind those who are freaking out about 4680's being "behind schedule" and doomsaying timelines of late 2023 possibly 2024 for legit output of those batteries...

Day 698 (first beams installed):

Day 755 (floor 2 and 3 nearly complete with concrete. Roof prepping for concrete. Base floor prepping for concrete):

A mere 57 days and the basic structure is like 75% done. I don't know what kind of timeline you think is fast.. but where I come from, massive buildings like these don't get near completely constructed in 2 months. More like 2 years!!

You think its going to take over a year to complete 25% of that building and populate it with functional equipment????

Tesla had 4680 machinery inside Giga Texas and functional weeks if not over a month before anyone with a drone realized it.

That building is done and starting output by January. 6 months later 4680 output is in full tilt. Just in time to meet the current official cybertruck volume timeline.

And as they have mentioned many times in official briefs, 4680's will be iteratively better. They don't design and optimize them.. then start producing them until and only when they meet their 100% goals for them. They started already with whatever base level improvements over the previous cells they had. So any difficulties in achieving their ideal improvements with them has no bearing on their ability to produce them at scale.

 

[Ogre]

Shows no signs of picking up production to meet demands in a year???

Let me remind those who are freaking out about 4680's being "behind schedule" and doomsaying timelines of late 2023 possibly 2024 for legit output of those batteries...

Day 698 (first beams installed):

Day 755 (floor 2 and 3 nearly complete with concrete. Roof prepping for concrete. Base floor prepping for concrete):

A mere 57 days and the basic structure is like 75% done. I don't know what kind of timeline you think is fast.. but where I come from, massive buildings like these don't get near completely constructed in 2 months. More like 2 years!!

You think its going to take over a year to complete 25% of that building and populate it with functional equipment????

Tesla had 4680 machinery inside Giga Texas and functional weeks if not over a month before anyone with a drone realized it.

That building is done and starting output by January. 6 months later 4680 output is in full tilt. Just in time to meet the current official cybertruck volume timeline.

We’re talking about building a factory to make a product which has never been manufactured.

“Late” is a purely theoretical concept. The Cybertruck was supposed to be on the road already. I’m supposed to have mind right now.

My impression was the 4680 & structural pack was to be part of that… which suggests there was a timeline in someone’s head which said 4680 cells would have been cranking out of some assembly line in Texas over a year ago.

By some metric anyhow, 4680 is late.

 

[Throwcomputer]

We’re talking about building a factory to make a product which has never been manufactured.

Except that this is the second factory to make a product that has begun manufacturing how many months to possibly a year or more ago in CA.

They know what they are doing. They are constrained by factory space, not know how. Factory space, which you can see is nearly complete.

 

[Ogre]

Except that this is the second factory to make a product that has begun manufacturing how many months to possibly a year or more ago in Fremont, CA.

They know what they are doing. They are restrained by factory space, not know how. Factory space, which you can see is nearly complete.

Fremont has only been producing 4680 cells for about 4-6 months and has nowhere near the volume to support the Cybertruck. Right now they don’t seem to be able to produce enough to support the Model Y. On the Q1 call, Tesla suggested they’d have volume production in Texas by year end… which seems a bit less likely when they still don’t seem to have any Texas production at the moment.

When we are doing big projects, sometimes we talk about how quickly something can be done if it’s on the golden path where nothing goes wrong.

The 4680 is happening, it’s just not on the golden path.

That’s ok though, because it sounds like it is meeting it’s performance and cost objectives which is arguably more important long term. I’d rather we wait a bit more for the better truck then get the compromised truck a year earlier.

 

[Throwcomputer]

Fremont has only been producing 4680 cells for about 4-6 months and has nowhere near the volume to support the Cybertruck. Right now they don’t seem to be able to produce enough to support the Model Y. On the Q1 call, Tesla suggested they’d have volume production in Texas by year end… which seems a bit less likely when they still don’t seem to have any Texas production at the moment.

When we are doing big projects, sometimes we talk about how quickly something can be done if it’s on the golden path where nothing goes wrong.

The 4680 is happening, it’s just not on the golden path.

That’s ok though, because it sounds like it is meeting it’s performance and cost objectives which is arguably more important long term. I’d rather we wait a bit more for the better truck then get the compromised truck a year earlier.

My read of their recent statements about difficulty producing them and not being able to scale as much as desired out of Fremont, was that it was a space constraint. Not a know how constraint. Fremont is already jam packed with as much manufacturing as they possibly can, producing the 4680s as much as space allows in Fremont. The ideal performance of those cells will come over progressive improvements as they have said.

That space needed for ideal production scale is Giga Texas. Well underway.

I agree that its best to get the CT when the products are more mature. But that is same with everything technology. Don't be one of the first 100-300k purchasers if you don't want the mature product (one of the few benefits of being 1 million on the list!). I'm not advocating for an accelerated unrealistic timeline. I'm only advocating for looking at the actual rapid factory progress and their official statements. Their progress seems to me to potentially line up with their stated timelines as of today.

 

[firsttruck]

My read of their recent statements about difficulty producing them and not being able to scale as much as desired out of Fremont, was that it was a space constraint. Not a know how constraint. Fremont is already jam packed with as much manufacturing as they possibly can, producing the 4680s as much as space allows in Fremont. The ideal performance of those cells will come over progressive improvements as they have said.

That space needed for ideal production scale is Giga Texas. Well underway.

--------------------

Tesla now produces more cars at Fremont factory than when operated by GM and Toyota Fred Lambert - Jun. 11th 2022
https://electrek.co/2022/06/11/tesla-produces-more-cars-fremont-factory-than-gm-toyota/

.....
Tesla is now producing more cars at its Fremont factory than when it was the NUMMI factory operated in partnership by GM and Toyota. And it’s only the beginning. CEO Elon Musk says it could grow production by about 50%.

.....
Toyota/GM NUMMI peaked at a production of 428,633 vehicles in 2006. However, Toyota had many other factories in the US by 2010, and NUMMI was the only one with a unionized workforce. GM and Toyota ended up closing the factory and selling it to Tesla in 2010.

--------------------

Tesla now operates the most productive car factory in the US
Tesla’s Fremont factory in Fremont, California: 8,550 cars a week
Toyota Motor Corp.’s juggernaut in Georgetown, Kentucky: 8,427 cars a week
BMW AG’s Spartanburg hub in South Carolina: 8,343 cars a week
By Fred Lambert - Jan. 24th 2022
https://electrek.co/2022/01/24/tesla-operates-most-productive-car-factory-us/

--------------------

Today Fremont Model 3 does not have front or rear mega-casting while Fremont Model Y only has rear mega-casting.

How is Tesla going to increase Fremont product by 50% when place is already crowded?

I think Tesla intends to free up space at Fremont by doing refresh of Model 3 & Y with front or rear mega-casting.

My read of their recent statements about difficulty producing them and not being able to scale as much as desired out of Fremont, was that it was a space constraint. Not a know how constraint. Fremont is already jam packed with as much manufacturing as they possibly can, producing the 4680s as much as space allows in Fremont.

The 4680 pilot production is done at Tesla Fremont Kato Rd which is separate from main Tesla Fremont factory complex. Tesla Kato Road is 3-4 miles from main Tesla Fremont.

 

[Throwcomputer]

--------------------

Tesla now produces more cars at Fremont factory than when operated by GM and Toyota Fred Lambert - Jun. 11th 2022
https://electrek.co/2022/06/11/tesla-produces-more-cars-fremont-factory-than-gm-toyota/

.....
Tesla is now producing more cars at its Fremont factory than when it was the NUMMI factory operated in partnership by GM and Toyota. And it’s only the beginning. CEO Elon Musk says it could grow production by about 50%.

.....
Toyota/GM NUMMI peaked at a production of 428,633 vehicles in 2006. However, Toyota had many other factories in the US by 2010, and NUMMI was the only one with a unionized workforce. GM and Toyota ended up closing the factory and selling it to Tesla in 2010.

--------------------

Tesla now operates the most productive car factory in the US
Tesla’s Fremont factory in Fremont, California: 8,550 cars a week
Toyota Motor Corp.’s juggernaut in Georgetown, Kentucky: 8,427 cars a week
BMW AG’s Spartanburg hub in South Carolina: 8,343 cars a week
By Fred Lambert - Jan. 24th 2022
https://electrek.co/2022/01/24/tesla-operates-most-productive-car-factory-us/

--------------------

Today Fremont Model 3 does not have front or rear mega-casting while Fremont Model Y only has rear mega-casting.

How is Tesla going to increase Fremont product by 50% when place is already crowded?

I think Tesla intends to free up space at Fremont by doing refresh of Model 3 & Y with front or rear mega-casting.




The 4680 pilot production is done at Tesla Fremont Kato Rd which is separate from main Tesla Fremont factory complex. Tesla Kato Road is 3-4 miles from main Tesla Fremont.

And yet, they still don't have enough space.

 

[charliemagpie]

This transition will save millions of lives and improve the health of practically every living human alive today and every single human coming after us.

Tesla has been a major influence to reverse a course which has been purposely steered the wrong way by greedy corporations for over 100 years.

Faced with constant evil underhanded adversity, It is a fight that is still going.

And through that, Tesla has grown at lightning speed.

And One or Two years late is late. ?

 

[JBee]

This transition will save millions of lives and improve the health of practically every living human alive today and every single human coming after us.

Tesla has been a major influence to reverse a course which has been purposely steered the wrong way by greedy corporations for over 100 years.

Faced with constant evil underhanded adversity, It is a fight that is still going.

And through that, Tesla has grown at lightning speed.

And One or Two years late is late. ?

Did they finally promote you to head of Tesla marketing and promotion now Charlie?

 

[JBee]

This may be a stupid question I suppose. But here she goes.

We know what will be making the truck body (9K IDRA machine), and there have been lots of questions about what machine will make he unibody and bend the stainless into the structural body shell. What was used to create the coupe prototypes they have now? Is the general consensus that the current prototypes are NOT unibody stainless? Perhaps just panels to get dimensions and whatnot worked out? We know that the body is not a casting, and was welded from many pieces the old school way (and likely by hand?).

SpaceX has been working with cold-rolled stainless for a good few years now. What are the chances a machine created for SpaceX needs is planned for use/order to create/fold the unibody? That appears to be one of the last ?'s we have around machines needed to start production. I do feel that mid 2023 is still a pretty generous timeline for production start... I would not be surprised if its not late 2023. I am worried about 4680. So little info, very little production, and a huge cloud of mystery into the whats, whys, and hows around the limitations and ramp plans. 4680 has and will be the limiting factor in producing all of Tesla's products and it is showing no signs at all of picking up production at a pace to meet any of these demands from any single 1 product line.

It's also possible that the "exoskeleton body" could be rolled into shape gradually though a series of rollers, and then cut into the shapes after they have been bent, instead of using a press brake on already cut panels. But this depends if it's possible to get the desired CT shape as discussed further below. BTW Exoskeleton not quite a unibody, because a unibody normally doesn't use the exterior paneling structurally. There's also a possibility that the panels could be manufactured directly at a steel foundry and shipped in bulk ready to assemble on the manufacturing line. There are obviously no steel foundry's at any of the Giga factories, and I think pre bent and cut flat packed steel sheet stacked into factory floor ready racks would probably work well.

This might also be the reason why we haven't yet seen any dedicated sheet folding equipment being delivered so far, because it might all be shipped from an offsite manufacturer. I can't think of a reason why it would be better to do the sheet production in a giga factory at this time, except maybe reduce a little bit of freight and handling in comparison to process steel sheet rolls. In fact the roll straightening on the current prototypes is evident with visible wavy patterns in the flat steel, so maybe using flat sheets with optimised flattening would be preferred, and isn't something they need to do in a giga anyway. We might even have a whole new foundry process dedicated to shaping the sheets directly into the parts they need.

The problem with the exoskeleton panels is that they are not parallel or symmetrical, meaning that if it was continuously rolled, they would have to roll each panel individually to get the folds on a forwards rake:

You can see from the picture and the red lines is that there is no continuous shape, and the middle panel of the side gets higher the further back it is. There's also a bunch of details that get annoying, the front right fender with the wheel cutout, looks like a waste of material if it was cut out of one big piece, as also the rear wheel cutout. The front A pillar seam to the front fender is also offset on the photo (you can see a line on the bottom of the a-frame). The blacked out B pillar in front of the front door, is structurally the main member, and is also quite large on the interior photos, so I'd imagine that is linked into the panels and front cast and possibly the structural pack.

I've written this numerous times before, so sorry for repeating myself, but the "exoskeleton" really does not appear to do much anymore, if you subtract the doors marked in blue, you only end up with the front and rear fenders. The cabin cage (just outside of the blue lines) together with the structural battery pack (underneath the blue line) really hold the core together, with the front and rear casting putting all the bed and vehicle loads into the wheels (yellow arrows). So from what I can tell at least there is little load still going through the exterior exoskeleton skin.

 

[Dusty]

I think this image is more indicative of what will carry the load forces.

And to this, you add a handful of supplemental subframe pieces and you're done.

You're looking at maybe 10-12 individual parts. Compared to the F150L with several hundred that need to each be welded together for the same thing, but probably weaker...

The exoskeleton may not be the sole bearer of all structural forces on the CT. But, the system as a whole only needs 10-12 parts to exceed the capabilities of several hundred parts welded together. With each weld point being a failure point.

Then when we take a look at the cabin, it's only a few sheets of folded stainless, some subframe pieces, and we have the interior frame and 80% of the exterior body done.

While the OEMs need to once again weld several hundred formed pieces together just to make the sub frame with 0 exterior panels in place.

The exoskeleton does plenty when you don't need to weld hundreds and hundreds of formed parts together before you even have the skin on the truck. In addition, it ties together the castings and battery pack from front to rear doing the work of the ladder frame of the F150.

 

[charliemagpie]

I just double-checked your pic, and yes, the doors aren't equal.

I'm not anywhere near the expertise.. but I had previously wondered if it was overly difficult or time-consuming or expensive, they would have made the front and back door with similar bends. Or at least felt savings over the long term would be worthwhile.

They didn't feel a need to compromise the shape at all. Which brings me to thinking that they may have developed an easier process.

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