cvalue13
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I have what I feel is a very conservative view of Tesla’s forward-looking production ramp.I don’t know man, even 40K CT deliveries in 2024 is looking unlikely right now… that said, i have no evidence whatsoever for this assessment : )
But that’s coming from someone who was able to snag a FS, if i hadn’t, I would be like, “Tesla is delivering 100K easy!!” Haha.
only time will tell i guess
And even from that conservative view, I see no reason to have confidence that Tesla would produce fewer than 40K units by YE 2024.
- The production output of Cybertrucks we are presently seeing are in effect the absolute earliest stages of a complex and sensitive ramp.
- The reality, is that Tesla has been assembling trucks for sale for essentially three weeks, and not yet with any clear intent for full-throated ramp (despite marketing optics).
- One might fairly even say that Tesla is still currently in a pre-ramp phase, and has not yet begun actual - technical - production.
In other words, to listen to those fanbois, onlookers might reasonably conclude something like “Tesla’s been in production for months, and *this* is all we’re seeing!?”
The reality is, Tesla has been weeks or months behind those claims by outsiders.
The good news being, the result is that nothing we’ve seen the past few weeks (or the next several weeks) should be materially indicative of the ramp trajectory.
Again, not at all to suggest that a conservative view would suggest eg ‘we might still see 100K trucks in 2024.’
Instead only to say that even a conservative view would be that we don’t yet have sufficient info to reasonably doubt Tesla won’t achieve 40K or more units in 2024. Not that it might not turn out that way, but that we just don’t know much either way at present.
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