Does everyone believe FSD will be viable in the next 3 years? 5 years? 10 years?

T3slaDad

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You guys are touching on good points, but unfortunately we're all preaching to the choir here. We all know FSD is leagues better than anyone else's, we all know that L5 FSD will be here before we are allowed to use it through regulation, we know that geofencing FSD is nothing in caparison to true adaptive FSD.

What we need to do is take a stand and tell others, show others, help the uneducated understand the real difference. If you have a Tesla with any AP, EAP, or FSD capabilities, take asany people out on rides as you can! Teach them, help them really experience what this all means.

My parents and closest friends all thought I was crazy for ever trusting a car to drive for me. That was, until I took them for a few rides. Now they understand just enough and experienced enough to truly grasp what FSD even is. Some of them even bum rides from me all the time to keep experiencing EAP any chance they get! I'm happy to oblige, because the more rides they try, the more confident THEY will become in the future.

If you don't have a Tesla, find someone who does! If they're anything like all of us and everyone I've met on trips at SC's, they're stoked to share any chance they get.

Teaching and showing the unlearned will help us battle misinformation and get us closer to regulatory approval than without it! Who knows, maybe you give a ride to someone on a city counsel board, or their spouse, best friend, etc. You have the chance to sway decisions at a butt dyno level, DO IT!!!

Last thing: who is going to trust a robotaxi if they never tried one before and don't know anybody who has done it yet? Only the brave! If we give people more confidence now, we're also helping the RT network grow faster when it does come.





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Crissa

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FSD is geofenced. It's all geofenced. FSD doesn't work in areas it's not allowed it legally. I don't know of anyone developing a system that requires everything to be mapped 100% of the time, since the world changes faster than it can be mapped.

Even Waymo's micro-mapping system is merely mapped by the previous Waymo vehicle... It can handle construction and whatnot. Being geofenced is more about staying inside their support range so they can drive someone out to rescue a downed vehicle. You can't usually get a taxi or a pizza outside it's delivery area, this is no different.

-Crissa
 

MexiTruck

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One thing that never gets talked about here is the ethics problem. Given that FSD has to kill its passngers, 3 prominent heart surgeons on the way to save the life of a little girl, or 5 illegal immigrants on the side of the road which should it do?
If a private company ever gets control of, or access to, so much private, personal information that it knows the immigration status of every pedestrian, the academic and professional status of every passenger, and the detailed plans of each passenger, then I think autonomous driving will be a minor worry.
 

ajdelange

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I think you have entirely missed the point.
 

Crissa

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I think you have entirely missed the point.
No, the entire concept is a flawed question.

At no point should an AI be making a decision like that. Not only won't it have the information, it shouldn't be traveling too fast not to stop.

-Crissa
 

ajdelange

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OK, tell me more about these illegal immigrants and the stalwart physicians and Tesla’s FSD decision making so that I can get the point.
I find that responses like this are generally reliable indicators that you won't get the point but if you are capable the links in No. 53 will make it clear.
 

T3slaDad

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At no point should an AI be making a decision like that. Not only won't it have the information, it shouldn't be traveling too fast not to stop.
That's definitely true, given the point of AI driving is to predict outcomes by the thousands per second and choose the most likely and safest outcomes based on a ton of criteria. It's amazing, really! Its #1 goal is to protect it's passengers, and I know EAP is very cautious about making decisions and errs on the side of caution often in it's current state.

For example, what about the situation where a pedestrian appears suddenly out of nowhere in front of the vehicle? Like J walking from behind a parked car on the side of the road? No human or AI could react fast enough if the pedestrian is close enough to the vehicle at the of discovery - it's too late.

Pedestrians need to remember that they have a job in road safety, as well. We teach this in school as kids and many forget about it as they get older.
 

Crissa

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The AI will know how much it can dodge or stop at all points. So it will come to a stop nearly as quickly as physically possible.

No ethics involved. A good AI won't care if it was a box or a human, as it will know it's an obstacle. It couldn't know if there's a kid under the box or not.

-Crissa
 

MEDICALJMP

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DOJO has the potential to make Level 4 a reality, if not true level 5.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-dojo-autopilot-fsd-improvements-release-date/amp/

I do wonder about snow being on the roads and obscuring the lane markers. How will the cyber truck know where to drive if the snow plows haven’t come yet and I am on my way to the hospital to work my shift? A human has the ability to accurately guess, mostly, where to drive. Now toss in multi lane roads. It will be white knuckle driving anyway.
 

T3slaDad

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Elon has discussed dojo before as being the secret weapon to realistic autonomy. Many people don't even know about it or don't understand its usefulness, but it's totally amazing!!

Dojo will make FSD a reality MUCH FASTER than what everyone believes. Ultra-sophisticated AI teaching AI how to be perfect, it's amazing (and scary in wrong applications)!!!
 

MEDICALJMP

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This s pretty impressive. It’s closer than you think.

 

Jhodgesatmb

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DOJO has the potential to make Level 4 a reality, if not true level 5.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-dojo-autopilot-fsd-improvements-release-date/amp/

I do wonder about snow being on the roads and obscuring the lane markers. How will the cyber truck know where to drive if the snow plows haven’t come yet and I am on my way to the hospital to work my shift? A human has the ability to accurately guess, mostly, where to drive. Now toss in multi lane roads. It will be white knuckle driving anyway.
Common sense says do the white knuckle drive yourself. You are needed alive in the hospital. I have driven plenty of times in conditions just as you describe and it would be amazing indeed if an autonomous vehicle could do it. I would want the vehicle to say “this is shit, can you please take over?” or “this is shit, I am pulling over”.
 

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