Elon finally got me

[RoboTaxi]

$100 pre-order , June 2020.
Cancelled August 2024 when I got email to order.

Got email yesterday for $60k AWD offer.

Ordered with my old referral code for $59k.

June delivery

Are you having one armor installed from the factory? I wonder how many of these $59k order are selecting that option.

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[Sjohnson20]

$100 pre-order , June 2020.
Cancelled August 2024 when I got email to order.

Got email yesterday for $60k AWD offer.

Ordered with my old referral code for $59k.

June delivery

its a great deal. I personally think it's as good as it will get for a while.

 

[Cayden Thompson]

He got me also.

 

[ABILISK]

I disagree and that’s kind of the reason I’m a little bit bitter about it. I think sales are going to continue to slump and I think he is going to have to make them cheaper. I have no doubt that he will bring back the ability to purchase FSD and other incentives to sweeten the pie when nothing he’s done/is doing changes the dynamic that he’s created in the market.

He has told everybody that Tesla doesn’t want to be a car company. It’s smacks of taking your ball and going home after people have rejected your political dalliances. “You can’t fire me I quit!”

Whatever the reason, for him blurting out that they’re leaving this space I do not believe that Robotaxis are going to take off the way that he thinks. I think it’s gonna be a huge miss even more so than selling hundreds of thousands of cyber trucks every year or the going to Mars stuff. (I hadn’t really thought about it too much until Neil deGrasse Tyson came out and just poured cold water all over that and made it clear that this wasn’t something that would happen during any of our lifetimes. You know that Elon couldn’t argue with it because he didn’t come out immediately and call him a pedo! He literally shifted gears and started looking at the moon instead.)

There’s so many logistical and social reasons why Robotaxis are not going to proliferate in the numbers that he keeps talking about.

Optimus? I always said I would be the first one to have one, but I have very little trust in Tesla at this point and I’m not sure that I really am willing to bring a murderbot into my home.

I can afford it, my decision will be made entirely upon trust (of both the AI and Tesla). Many people won’t be able to afford it and have already made up their minds about Elon.

The original vision has been abandoned and corrupted. I don’t know where it goes from here.

So… You selling your stock? Or just ranting? I think the richest, most successful man in history might have a clue what he’s doing. He’s undeniably optimistic with how fast he can do things, but what he says will get done. No matter how far fetched it seems. FSD? No doubt in my mind it’ll happen. It already could. Just need Tesla to grow a pair and cut the cord. Same for Mars. We’ll see it.

 

[dalton108]

So… You selling your stock? Or just ranting? I think the richest, most successful man in history might have a clue what he’s doing. He’s undeniably optimistic with how fast he can do things, but what he says will get done. No matter how far fetched it seems. FSD? No doubt in my mind it’ll happen. It already could. Just need Tesla to grow a pair and cut the cord. Same for Mars. We’ll see it.

Neither selling my stock nor ranting. Just stating the facts, as I see them, plainly and rationally. I’ve got a pretty good track record with my predictions here.

For example: has the light bar gone on sale for cars outside of the CyberBeast? No? Pretty sure I said it wasn’t going to from day one.

CyberTruck is still across the board doing Edsel level numbers with Edsel level reception from the public. I was the first to say that before anybody in the media started thinking the same thing.

500 miles was (exactly like I said) the sweet spot for EV trucks (and 400 miles is the minimum) not 300. I don’t think there’s any credible argument against that at this point, but I didn’t think there was a couple of years ago when I first said it. That’s why everybody is now retreating to hybrids.

I’m not a respecter of persons. I do not do hero worship. Elon‘s made a lot of money off of work done by other people. In the past, he’s been a strategic monster. Lately, he’s been full of himself, cocky and overplaying his hand. More importantly, he’s been underestimating his weaknesses and blind spots (particularly when it comes to human nature). You would need to not have eyes to not see that.

His $1 trillion valuation? I’m no Warren Buffett, but to my understanding, that’s a paper valuation and a lot of that is based on market exuberance without a lot of fundamentals backing up the stock price. I have not yet sold my stock, but I’m not buying and we’ll see what things look like in June to see whether I keep holding.

The noisy and prolific departures from XAI are not confidence inspiring. No matter what kind of word-salad excuses have come from the company.

I’ve been the loudest FSD booster on the planet since me and my wife first started using it in beta in ‘21. I have never argued that it’s not going to happen. It’s already happened. It continues to get better. What I have said here is the first mover advantage is not going to be the moat that it was in the past in the coming years. Everybody is going to catch up.

What I have said is Robotaxis are not going to be what Elon thinks they are going to be anywhere near the time horizon that he is suggesting. Social reasons and huge technical hurdles that are not solved are going to make that time horizon much more like a decade from now than anything that Elon is suggested in terms of scale. I’ll lay down that marker right now.

Optimus? It’s a matter of trust outside of industrial applications an inside of industrial applications? I think Tesla is going to be using its own robots but I’m not sure how many corporations are going to want an army of walking cameras and microphones gathering every bit of data in the plant/warehouse/office for a mercurial guy who might turn on you on a dime. And has no compunction about being arbitrary and vindictive. For lots of reasons, I think that’s going to be a tough sell.

I’m still ruminating on the bot thing. All I’m sure of at this point is it’s not going to go anywhere near as quickly as Elon is projecting. Not necessarily for everyone, here, I’m talking about Tesla specifically because of the trust issues that he has unnecessarily created.

Re: Mars

On Mars, Bud: If you haven’t taken a look at what Neil deGrasse Tyson said you need to do so. He absolutely torpedoed that on every level (in plain, logical, simple English) it’s an absolute nonstarter and Elon has effectively capitulated to that viewpoint. Sorry, we’re not going to Mars. Not during the natural lifetime of basically anyone alive today, anyway.

Here’s a very quick and dirty overview of what he said on the October 2025 “Diary of a CEO” podcast. Key reasons why this isn’t non-possible:

• Extreme Timeline:

- 9 months one-way; 3–5 years round-trip with alignment waits (you can’t do it until the planets realign to make it feasible with our current technology to even make the trip home).

- various unsolved logistics, radiation, and isolation.

- even Elon’s most ambitious timeline is it would take 20 years to get this off the ground. Not to do it, but to be ready to do it, maybe. In 20 years both me and Elon will be in our mid to late 70s! I was born the day that Neil Young took those first steps on the moon! I’m all about the idea of space exploration, but the name of that movie is, “No Planet for Old Men.”

• No Economic Incentive:

- Costs $1 trillion with zero ROI—no valuable resources or business model; private efforts are “vanity projects.”

• Lack of Geopolitical Drive:

- Governments won’t fund without a threat (e.g., Cold War-style rivalry); exploration alone isn’t enough.

- if China was threatening to build a base on Mars, maybe - outside of that literally forget about it.

• Overall Verdict:

- Probability of happening in our lifetimes is “zero.”

 

[ABILISK]

Whew, so 10 page essays aren’t required anymore. You passed law school some time ago lol

I’m not a respecter of persons. I do not do hero worship. Elon‘s made a lot of money off of work done by other people.

Sometimes getting the right answer isn’t a matter of knowing everything yourself, it’s just knowing who to ask. Elon has assembled a team of the finest minds in history that have made his various companies what they are today. He oversees the projects and is responsible for the outcomes. So yeah, he gets the credit.

You know what I do for a living. The most fulfilling time in my career was when I was on the DWI squad. I went to work each night making arrests potentially saving a life. I’ve made hundreds of DWI arrests and have maybe saved a few lives. I’m proud of that. The work Elon (and, yes, his chosen team) is doing is going to save THOUSANDS of lives. Each year.

What I have said here is the first mover advantage is not going to be the moat that it was in the past in the coming years. Everybody is going to catch up.

Who is this “everybody” that is going to miraculously catch up? Rivian? Good luck. Gonna be 2035 before they’re anywhere near “solving autonomy.” There’s absolutely no competition whatsoever today.

What I have said is Robotaxis are not going to be when Elon thinks they are going to be anywhere near the time horizon that he is suggesting.

Maybe not for you and me. But aren’t you a defense attorney? I have the slightest feeling (aka know for a fact) most of your clients are section 8 people driving salvage title cars with no insurance because they can’t afford anything better. Yeah, they’re gonna robotaxi everywhere. Very soon.

On Mars

I have heard what he had to say. I also heard what Elon had to say. What Elon said makes sense.

Tyson, when talking about Mars, sounded like WhistlinDiesel talking about CT. He had not the slightest of clue how it was constructed. He thought the tow hitch snapping off was attached to a standard ladder frame… it will really be quite embarrassing for him if the general public learns how CT is constructed. Kinda the same thing for Tyson. He doesn’t understand Starship’s capabilities whatsoever and it’s cringy to hear him talk.

 

[dalton108]

“Sometimes getting the right answer isn’t a matter of knowing everything yourself, it’s just knowing who to ask. Elon has assembled a team of the finest minds in history that have made his various companies what they are today. He oversees the projects and is responsible for the outcomes. So yeah, he gets the credit.”

I never said he didn’t get credit. Just stating what he’s actually done. He’s more Edison, than Nikola Tesla. There’s nothing wrong with that, but they are not the same thing.

“Who is this “everybody” that is going to miraculously catch up? Rivian? Good luck. Gonna be 2035 before they’re anywhere near “solving autonomy.” There’s absolutely no competition whatsoever today.”

We’ll just have to agree to disagree on that. Many companies in China are already arguably ahead of Tesla. That’s been widely reported. Plenty of video out there showing it.

“Maybe not for you and me. But aren’t you a defense attorney? I have the slightest feeling (aka know for a fact) most of your clients are section 8 people driving salvage title cars with no insurance because they can’t afford anything better.”

You got it half right. I defend businesses, very large entities. I don’t work for people. I’m a civil litigator, you know the names of all of my clients. They are all household names.

“Yeah, they’re gonna robotaxi everywhere. Very soon.”

Put some meat on these bones and I’ll take that bet.

“I have heard what he had to say. I also heard what Elon had to say. What Elon said makes sense.”

Yeah, but the only thing that Elon has said since Tyson’s interview is yeah let’s just go to the Moon. So I’d say that that’s settled.

“Kinda the same thing for Tyson. He doesn’t understand Starship’s capabilities whatsoever and it’s cringy to hear him talk.”

Starship’s capabilities do not include defying physics. It really doesn’t sound like you’ve heard what NDT had to say because if you did you would understand that we can’t carry enough fuel to get to Mars and back in any reasonable timeframe because the technology doesn’t exist. It isn’t something that Elon has and is just sitting on that literal astrophysicist cannot understand how it works.

I think it’s a pretty gross oversimplification to compare a total douche nozzle like whistling diesel to an astrophysicist who has pretty much silenced Elon on this point.

[Sorry about the lazy formatting. Doing it on my phone it’s late at night and I need to go to sleep.]

 

[RVAC]

I agree. I don't know how much more wiggle room is left after this price drop. Even if they can shave another 5 grand off, im still content with my 59k entry point.

Only thing I don't like is getting a '26 so close to release of the '27s. If I could delay this i would but don't want to take that chance

The only thing that might happen is the premium version dropping to $69k.

 

[ABILISK]

We’ll just have to agree to disagree on that. Many companies in China are already arguably ahead of Tesla. That’s been widely reported. Plenty of video out there showing it.

Again, who? NVIDIA? BYD? Because no, those two aren’t remotely close.

Put some meat on these bones and I’ll take that bet.

Like you said, you defend businesses. You may not have the outlook I have. I routinely see people who will use and benefit from the Robotaxi network.

Yeah, but the only thing that Elon has said since Tyson’s interview is yeah let’s just go to the Moon. So I’d say that that’s settled.

SpaceX is transitioning to a moon base for a few reasons. I won’t get into your level of detail right now because I have to sleep soon too. But 1) there’s essentially a space race 2.0 right now and 2) it’s a Mars stepping stone.

Starship’s capabilities do not include defying physics. It really doesn’t sound like you’ve heard what NDT had to say because if you did you would understand that we can’t carry enough fuel to get to Mars and back in any reasonable timeframe because the technology doesn’t exist.

Perhaps you’ve missed some news. If there’s anything on God’s green earth I know better than CT, it’s SpaceX specifics. They’re going to do in orbit refuels, starship to starship. This will allow for more than enough fuel to get to Mars AND BACK. There’s no question starship is capable of the task.

[Sorry about the lazy formatting. Doing it on my phone it’s late at night and I need to go to sleep.]

I get it lol. I do too. GN brother.

 

[tingmo13]

I’m not sure where there’s a place for it on the road-map. Pun not initially intended but … we shall see. Where Tesla is going they claim, they don’t need any roads!

I hope Tesla is tasting all scenarios with 'One Size Fits All' and finally trim down to smaller size that fits regular size garage.

 

[Outdoors]

Remember Sonders doing flash sale for his MetaCycle $5000 for week or so, normally $6000. Filed bankruptcy not even a year later and took the cash boost with him after he failed to pay his China venders.

So is that an inference that Tesla is doing the same?

$44 billion cash on hand as of last filing. Sure there little fella. Elon wipes with what Billy Ford dreams about.

 

[Stuck4ger]

…I was born the day that Neil Young took those first steps on the moon! I’m all about the idea of space exploration, but the name of that movie is, “No Planet for Old Men.”

Neil Young - “one small song for a man, one giant concerto for mankind.”

 

[dalton108]

Neil Young - “one small song for a man, one giant concerto for mankind.”

I said I was fucking tired!!!

Also, “Harvest Moon” was right there!!!

 

[Trbizwiz]

I agree. I don't know how much more wiggle room is left after this price drop. Even if they can shave another 5 grand off, im still content with my 59k entry point.

Only thing I don't like is getting a '26 so close to release of the '27s. If I could delay this i would but don't want to take that chance

If Autonomy on HW4 is real, this will prove to be the bargain of the century. I have been waiting on 0% financing to buy a Beast, so I don't have to sell any TSLA, but I am placing an order for this AWD today and I'll just pay cash by selling the car it replaces. That said, if Tesla offers the Beast with 0% before I take delivery, I'll convert the order to Beast, and sell the other car and buy more TSLA. Either way, I am happy with the options available. I have already started scouting seat covers. I am hoping someone offers covers with built in ventilation, like Katzkins. Ventilation is the only key feature I am missing in this model. I live in FL.

 

[dalton108]

If Autonomy on HW4 is real, this will prove to be the bargain of the century. I have been waiting on 0% financing to buy a Beast, so I don't have to sell any TSLA, but I am placing an order for this AWD today and I'll just pay cash by selling the car it replaces. That said, if Tesla offers the Beast with 0% before I take delivery, I'll convert the order to Beast, and sell the other car and buy more TSLA. Either way, I am happy with the options available. I have already started scouting seat covers. I am hoping someone offers covers with built in ventilation, like Katzkins. Ventilation is the only key feature I am missing in this model. I live in FL.

I think the cloth seats are one of the best things about it. I wish I had those in my beast.

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