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Ogre

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The pre-order conversion rate will be 100% if they honor the 2019 prices. That will result in about 40% of them being sold for profit in exchange for a lifetime ban :ROFLMAO:
I wonder how many trucks you have to flip to get banned.

 

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Musk said at some point the may have to stop taking orders. Meaning :

We already have a 3-year delivery wait time. No doubt, during these 3 years., there will be more orders.

Will interest take off ?. From 2024, It ts entirely possible to get 300,000+ new orders per year.

Simple maths, in 2024, we may be already operating or in the process of building another CT factory. Not just the mini version, but for both.

---------------------
The other things I leaned from this :
Musk has more or less squashed the 1 million orders into 3 years.
Bodes well for people who are waiting for Duel and Tri.. There is a wait, but not 5 years. Most will be year 2 and 3. Not as bad.

Today a tiny puzzle piece.
 

TAP1A

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Dammmit I can’t wait to see what the configurations are and what add ons we can order for the CT. I want a white interior option pleaseeee
 

JBee

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I think there are multiple tiers to the CT conversion rate.

Some people desperately want and really like the CT and will do anything to get one (like many of us fanboys here), some ordered multiple to keep, some are just Tesla product fans and got one to be in the "I ordered a CT crowd", others ordered one or more to flip, others ordered only just in case to avoid the cue, others ordered but don't know how to afford it yet and so on.

On top of that the waiting game does two things. It adds orders and more conversions as more people become aware of the CT and start to like it and want it more, it allows many to save up to buy one, if not 2.

The ones cancelling their orders are the ones who don't want to wait and get something else that is available now (probably a MY or Ice truck seeing EVs options are thin atm) or need the $100 back for groceries, meaning they weren't really orders that would convert anyway. Then of course theres the anti-EM buyout twitter crowd now...

But of all of those I expect the most lost conversions will not be now before delivery, but rather when the CT has to be paid for. Especially if theres a price hike or only the top models are available.

From a manufacturers perspective though, the only relevant data is can you make the vehicle profitably and will your order books fill faster than you can make them?

Currently, most of us are buying CTs from a few pictures and video from a screen, without ever seeing a CT. Wait until they hit the road.
 

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I honestly don’t get this argument.

Would you drop $100 on something you had no intention of buying? I certainly wouldn’t. Would a million+ people spend $100 on something they have no intention to buy?

Ben F. and I are tight. I wouldn’t part with him for a casual fling.
I never said they didn't have intentions. They may have intended to save money from the release to the production...but how many people did? Based on what we know about credit card debt in this country, I'd guess very few. And they didn't hand over a Ben Franklin, they ran that same old piece of plastic. The release was Friday or Saturday evening also. Some reservation holders were probably a few beverages into the night when they were watching so they thought, ...get 2 or 3. Others down the line thought they'd reserve 10 for their cyber fleet of FSD cabs. All had good intentions. There is still a lot we don't know about the CT. How many people will fulfill those good intended reservations is just one question.

It’s being given the same resources/ floor space as the Texas & Berlin Model Y lines which are scheduled for 500k units/ year.
You say 250k - 500k ramp up in the first three years based on past performance, floor space at the China and German factory and potential production scheduled. I think they can ramp up those factories faster because they are building cars there they have already built at other factories and learned lessons from and continue to learn from. I think building the CT is going to be harder until the new processes are figured out in the first few years, then they will be very efficient. They will get to 250k/yr but I don't think it will be in the first 3 years.
 


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I'm old enough now that I want the truck to be my last vehicle so I have no interest in selling it.
I am in the same boat myself. Though I believe the CT and its batteries can possibly outlive me, I am concerned that though the batteries may still be good, that newer battery tech will obsolete the cells in the CT in 10-20 years. Meaning, in 10 years, with some newer breakthrough chemistry and materials the batteries can charge from 10%-90% in 10 minutes and weigh 1/3 what they do today its going to feel like I am driving a dinosaur around, LOL.
 

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Musk said at some point the may have to stop taking orders. Meaning :

We already have a 3-year delivery wait time. No doubt, during these 3 years., there will be more orders.
I took that to mean he wasn't just talking about CT orders.. but all orders. They have such a back log of orders for all their vehicles that he's saying sooner or later it only harms them to have buyers waiting for 5-6 years for a vehicle to be delivered. This is specifically about vehicles that are actively being made and sold. They could be discontinued for any number of reasons in a 6 year time span as newer models come out. So it is not ideal for them to have that kind of back log.

Then again, I don't think they will have this back log problem in 5 years when they have all these factories cranking out 3-6 million vehicles a year. Within the next few years they will get to a point where your vehicle is printed on demand as you order and pay for it.

5-6 years wait for CT is not the same issue.. given we were never guaranteed the truck in 2 years. So the truck design and specs have not been cast in stone until recently.
 
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Currently, most of us are buying CTs from a few pictures and video from a screen, without ever seeing a CT. Wait until they hit the road.
Indeed. It is quite impossible to know what abandonment rate will be until we know what the actual final specs look like.
 
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Musk said at some point the may have to stop taking orders. Meaning :

We already have a 3-year delivery wait time. No doubt, during these 3 years., there will be more orders.
I may have given the wrong impression. I believe Musk was talking about actively shipping cars. My comment about the Cybertruck was pure speculation.
 


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Indeed. It is quite impossible to know what abandonment rate will be until we know what the actual final specs look like.
Even if 30% of people don't convert when it comes to payment time, what does that actually mean anyway?

All it means is that existing order numbers will get their CT faster, because its highly likely that after a few months of seeing these driving around and being reviewed in detail, they'll add another 50-100% of orders, that have to go to the back of the line.

Its just a position re-shuffle. But we'll see more orders and with it more production. I think that is the target Tesla is reaching for, preorders are just the beginning of the production ramp up and not the required rate to meet demand.
 

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I re-read… He has more than 3 years... but I think it wouldn't be hugely more than that.

MUST WATCH
Best In Tesla : Tesla’s SECRET weapon is DSM & 4D hexagon Cube’s !!!

In a recent interview, Joe Justice mentioned the modular manufacturing capability of Austin . In this vid, Lars gets into it.. It really does bring home the potential of Tesla's manufacturing dominance.

We have had over 100 years of improvements to get to wh
ere ere today.
Henry Ford introduced the production line, we go through war and a plethora of tweaks ,Robotics, Just in time, zero tolerance a million things to be where we are.

And this thing is here. Where is its evolutionary path ?

What a genius we have right now.
 

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I am in the same boat myself. Though I believe the CT and its batteries can possibly outlive me, I am concerned that though the batteries may still be good, that newer battery tech will obsolete the cells in the CT in 10-20 years. Meaning, in 10 years, with some newer breakthrough chemistry and materials the batteries can charge from 10%-90% in 10 minutes and weigh 1/3 what they do today its going to feel like I am driving a dinosaur around, LOL.
Don't worry. After we are gone, they can easily replace the pack. And a software upgrade. RIP:D
 

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I have on good authority the first 100,000 reservations and only the first 100,000 reservations will cancel.

(This is a subliminal message to the first 100,000 reserves)

 

 
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