February Orders Waiting Room

[lessbanking]

I ran some numbers on the Owners Registry database and I found the following:

Average Time from Order to Delivery:

Ordered First Week of December: 56 days
Ordered Second Week of December: 66 days
Ordered Third Week of December: 58 days

This seems pretty consistent at roughly 60 days from order to delivery. Therefore I would not at all be surprised to see February orders getting delivered in April.

I am thinking and hoping the same. With them ramping up production rather consistently I don't see why there wouldn't be February orders going out in April.

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[Fleetwood75]

I am thinking and hoping the same. With them ramping up production rather consistently I don't see why there wouldn't be February orders going out in April.

I'm still haunted by my Model X buying experience though. I ordered (not reserved, but actually configured and ordered) a Model X in July 2021 and they gave me a December 2021 estimated delivery date. However when November 2021 rolled around they pushed my estimated delivery date to January 2022. When December rolled around they pushed it to February, etc. I didn't actually get to take delivery of the car until September 2022, over 400 days later!

 

[agordon117]

I ran some numbers on the Owners Registry database and I found the following:

Average Time from Order to Delivery:

Ordered First Week of December: 56 days
Ordered Second Week of December: 66 days
Ordered Third Week of December: 58 days

This seems pretty consistent at roughly 60 days from order to delivery. Therefore I would not at all be surprised to see February orders getting delivered in April.

This is very optimistic. Orders delivered in the last week have an average of 71 days from order to delivery. It has been getting longer as we have been going. This includes some second week, some third week, and even a january order.

I would love to be as optimistic as you, but with all of the trucks seemingly finished but not moving, the lag between arriving at a service center and being delivered unless they have already delivered a few dozen, and last minute problems that keep being found and delaying delivery, I'll be completely shocked if my 1/10 order, in an "activated" state, arrives in march at all.

If order to delivery was shrinking with time, I would have a different opinion, but so far it's only going up.

 

[agordon117]

I'm still haunted by my Model X buying experience though. I ordered (not reserved, but actually configured and ordered) a Model X in July 2021 and they gave me a December 2021 estimated delivery date. However when November 2021 rolled around they pushed my estimated delivery date to January 2022. When December rolled around they pushed it to February, etc. I didn't actually get to take delivery of the car until September 2022, over 400 days later!

You guys definitely got the worst of it. But I keep using that as an example when I think about how weird/slow/cloak and dagger the cybertruck launch has been. Like, the 21 model X was the most delayed vehicle from order to delivery. And yet, at least they gave you guys a delivery ETA after ordering, and pushed it back as needed. For them to specifically mask that information from CT order holders is really insane to me.

 

[cgladue]

This is very optimistic. Orders delivered in the last week have an average of 71 days from order to delivery. It has been getting longer as we have been going. This includes some second week, some third week, and even a january order.

I would love to be as optimistic as you, but with all of the trucks seemingly finished but not moving, the lag between arriving at a service center and being delivered unless they have already delivered a few dozen, and last minute problems that keep being found and delaying delivery, I'll be completely shocked if my 1/10 order, in an "activated" state, arrives in march at all.

If order to delivery was shrinking with time, I would have a different opinion, but so far it's only going up.

this is because almost all december orders are in CA, TX and FL as they started opening up additional states the averages are being pushed longer and longer.

if you remove all CA, FL and TX orders from trucks ordered in december and delivered, you only have 10 orders remaining out of 166 and the average time for those 10 deliveries is 71.2 days

On the pending delivery table, most non CA, TX people are waiting 71 days just to get their VIN let alone take delivery.

 

[Fleetwood75]

Honestly though, 60 days versus 71 days isn’t much difference

 

[Fleetwood75]

You guys definitely got the worst of it. But I keep using that as an example when I think about how weird/slow/cloak and dagger the cybertruck launch has been. Like, the 21 model X was the most delayed vehicle from order to delivery. And yet, at least they gave you guys a delivery ETA after ordering, and pushed it back as needed. For them to specifically mask that information from CT order holders is really insane to me.

maybe they learned from it because a lot of us were outraged when our estimated delivery date kept moving every month. It was the Lucy and the Football effect from Charlie Brown. Every month I’d get excited and think: “this is finally the month where they won’t move the date again” and then they did

 

[evnow]

I'm yet to decide on ordering - but one thing I need to figure out is what happens if I move.

We do plan to move out of state in July. If I order now - CT may get delivered in June. Obviously I don't want to take delivery in June only to spend 2k to ship it in July (apart from paying higher sales tax, reregister etc). Then there is the Powershare install - which I obviously want in the new house.

Does anyone know how Tesla handles such situations ?

I called Tesla and the sales rep went and checked with someone on this - but the answer was still vague. He said I have to just call a couple of weeks before the move and they can change the delivery state. But - really what I need them to do is to wait till I move and then deliver Ct in the new state ....

 

[cgladue]

Honestly though, 60 days versus 71 days isn’t much difference

lol you dont think almost 2 weeks isnt a lot ? i would disagree. Even if it "isnt a lot" then it shows a lengthening of time in the numbers not consistency or shortening.

 

[Fleetwood75]

lol you dont think almost 2 weeks isnt a lot ? i would disagree. Even if it "isnt a lot" then it shows a lengthening of time in the numbers not consistency or shortening.

Considering that I've already been waiting 1,561 days I would not say that 11 additional days really registers much with me. And even if the wait lengthens from "about 60 days" to "about 90 days" in my mind it's a small increase compared to how long I've already waited.

 

[Fleetwood75]

Well, I checked and no VIN yet. Granted it’s only been four days, but I just can’t help myself. Anybody else compulsively checking?

 

[Toylover]

Well, I checked and no VIN yet. Granted it’s only been four days, but I just can’t help myself. Anybody else compulsively checking?

Trying to stop myself from checking more than two times a day. I am in PA and I have not heard even people with earlier order dates receive their trucks in PA so far.

 

[Fleetwood75]

No VIN yet, but I did get the PowerShare survey, exactly seven days after the FS invite e-mail. Had previously been planning get a PowerWall but now looking forward to using the truck instead. Eventually want to get like six Powerwalls and a big solar system and totally disconnect from the grid, but I can't afford that right now

 

[MeadowShade]

FS offers will stop when they stop getting yes's. They are going though 20,000 reservations per week ... my estimate based on when I got my order invite vs when others got their's. If that is true, it will take another 18 months to get through the list of reservations. It will be a LONG time before they can even catch up to those orders if the take rate is 10%, that is 200,000 FS CT's. That puts non-FS CT's well into next year at best!

 

[Rockwell]

Placed my order for AWD FS on Feb 23, and though I’ve been checking every day for a VIN, I figured it would be a long while but couldn’t help myself from looking anyway.

Well, I checked tonight and I got a VIN!!! I had to rub my eyes to make sure I was seeing right!! It’s only been 25 days since ordering, and I know there are people who are 60 days out still waiting for a VIN.

I wonder if it had anything to do with payment choice? When I ordered, I chose to pay by Tesla loan, but wasn’t going to start the application process til I got the VIN. This weekend I checked on interest rates and found my own personal loan at a great rate and just switched the Cybertruck payment option to pay in full. And, voila, the next day, today, I get my VIN! Probably coincidence, but….?

SF Bay Area, CA, (and not a Tesla employee or YouTuber) ….WOW now I’m getting excited again!

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