Foundation Series Cybertruck -- Clarified

[Laird Popkin]

Other NOTE:

Take extra attention to the fact that the Foundation series description of inclusions says nothing about AP or FSD

Nor did the delivery event intro info, nor the website for ‘normal’ trucks have ANY mention of AP or FSD

At this point, assume that AP/FSD are not yet operational in the Cybertruck

I suspect that it is not yet playing nicely with steer-by-wire

The specs on the site for FS include "FSD Capable" which is what Tesla calls FSD, the naming is making clear that it's currently driver assist and will be capable of FSD in the future.

Where did the 1,000 FS vehicles come from? I've not seen that from Tesla anywhere.

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[cvalue13]

The specs on the site for FS include "FSD Capable" which is what Tesla calls FSD, the naming is making clear that it's currently driver assist and will be capable of FSD in the future.

what you quoted wasn’t a comment about whether the FS price included AP/FSD (though there was separate confusion about that for a while)

What you quoted was commenting instead about whether AP/FSD is operational yet (regardless of whether it’s being paid for/included)

since the date of that comment (Dec 4), it’s become more widely known that neither AP nor FSD are yet operational in any Cybertruck

and since the date of that comment, while people have mentioned also the issue of sufficient ‘fleet’ data to inform AP/FSD, I believe it’s also become sufficiently clear that also or moreso, the issue of AP/FSD relates to it not yet playing nicely with either or both of (the combo of) steer-by-wire and rear wheel steering

I think the predominance of this being a SBW/4WS hurdle is somewhat evidenced that it’s not just the more complex/fleet sensitive FSD that’s not yet enabled, but even the basic (and less fleet dependent) AP functionality that also is not yet present.

if they can’t yet confidently run AP, then it seems to me any additional fleet data needed for FSD isn’t yet even the logjam.

Maybe these things are intertwined. But in any event, variable SBW/4WS interplay is potentially no small challenge to simply “bolt on top” of the existing software.

 

[Ezman]

With all the speculation around the 1k FS truck, has any thought there might be 1k cyberbeast and 1k AWD FS?

 

[cvalue13]

With all the speculation around the 1k FS truck, has any thought there might be 1k cyberbeast and 1k AWD FS?

To summarize (but only) the source of speculation on the 1K FSCT:

(1) media reports on the day of unveil sited the 1K run, and as a total. These reports that ran on Nov 30 are generally the result of interviews, etc., given before Nov 30 (usually in the days or week before), but placed under a media embargo until the event. Accordingly, these Nov 30 media reports of the 1K total units are one source of evidence that (at least at some point) this was the plan.

(2) The indirect evidence of Tesla’s VIN activation plan, which pretty clearly shows (if you know what to look for) Tesla planned/plans to have 1K total, and a mix of AWD/Beast within. You can get a more detailed accounting for these details over here on the VIN tracking thread starting at this post, but the long-and-short of it: Tesla built the ‘standard’ (non FS) showroom units by first jumping ahead to VINs 1201-1221, leaving 1200 VINs “below” that (000000-1200); at the same time, they first set aside 200 VINs for “manufacturing confirmation” units between VINs 800-1000 (these they use to test that the line is working), but only ended up building 110MC/using 110 of those reserved VINs (once you’re satisfied the line is working as expected, you can stop building MCs and get to building real units); the end result, is Tesla’s initial build schedule left an initial run of 1,000 VINs reserved for activation (000000-799, and 1001-1200) - these early VINS being the most “valuable” ones to an early/limited release (eg, buyers, or executives, want the pride of early VINs - Musk’s is 000000); since then, as Tesla has set in to building these early VINs, it’s become clear that within those 1000 VINs there are “blocks” quickly filling up with AWD builds, and other “blocks” very slowly accumulating Beast builds - showing the 1,000 VIN schedule is a mix of Beast vs AWD (the first 50 Beasts, only 1/2 of which have been built to date). Accordingly, also evidence for this 1K FS units plan (at least at some point), are Tesla’s apparent VIN activation plan.

(3) One or two folks have heard from employees this was (at least at some point) the plan, and reported these convos on social media.

(4) similar to above, but personally more persuasive, is that I have personal knowledge/confirmation of eg (1) and (2) above - to the extent that, at least, that was at some point or still today the official plan, but with a heavy asterisk that this is a plan subject to change.

Now, for anyone reading this, it would be fair to lump (3) and (4) together: I may as well be another guy playing telephone. That’s fine, resort to (1)-(2) as one wishes.

In my defense, I haven’t been an altogether unreliable around here (and nobody bats 1000, not even Tesla execs, when it comes to having perfect info - or once perfect info changing at some point in the future).



All-in-all, to your question, to the extent there is and remains a “plan” for 1K FSCT, any evidence we have of this also points to it being 1K total, across both trims.

At the same time, any evidence we have of this “plan,” should as always be viewed as the sort of plan that is subject to change. Not just as a general rule, but here specifically because there are info (and signals) that it is or was an official plan already known to be potentially subject to change. Afterall, whatever Tesla told media before the event Tesla hasn’t been repeating; whatever Tesla’s apparent VIN activation schedule, to change it they need only keep building past 1221. And, maybe to the biggest signal: a company does not try to sell a premium limited edition unnumbered, unless it intends to not paint itself into a corner regarding total numbers.


Who knows where this goes. From the build side, to date Tesla hasn’t activated 1000 FS VINs yet, much less built/completed/delivered them. So we have no signal there yet inconsistent with the 1K plan.

On the orders side, this is some people’s largest source of doubt regarding FS being limited to 1K. That view, basically, goes: “from my armchair, I estimate that more than 1,000 FS orders have been accepted by Tesla to date, and so Tesla must plan to build more than 1,000.” And I admit this view has a lot of emotional appeal. But at the same time, it’s also to date entirely armchair - no one has put forward any evidence that more than 1,000 orders have been made, instead only that, looking around themselves, they *feel* like a lot of orders have been made. Folks can onboard the weight of that view however they please.

These folks who feel there have been more than 1,000 orders to date, really have only one, indirect, piece of “evidence” to point to: this forum’s order tracking list has >700 entries, which would mean that this forum’s order tracking capture is very high (eg ~70% of orders to date have made it to this tracker).

I admit that’s a very surprising outcome, if not unlikely at first blush. But here again, it’s an *emotion* based from the armchair, with not actual independent data to say how likely it is one way or the other - we have zero basis, outside of instinct and bias, to think we have a handle on how likely it would be to capture like that. Aside from grunt and a “low chance.”

Meanwhile, conversely, one could have some equally walking-around Knowledge about essentially polling bias and make a colorable argument that the pool of people who have received orders to date have a statistically high chance of either of (a) already being members, (b) getting an invite and going to the web to look for info and finding this place directly, or (c) going to the web and finding xwitter and other platforms with people who on those platforms have been encouraging people to come to this forum and fill it out.

All that certainly makes it at least *more* likely that this forum could have a higher order capture rate than would some random selection. This forum is certainly not a random selection. So the core of the question is just how un-random would it need to be to have a surprisingly high capture rate.


Still, that high capture rate and it’s first blush unlikelihood to have captures so many orders, is at bottom the entire basis of any serious argument that there exists any data that Tesla has taken more than 1,000 orders to date.


But the next few weeks might be telling. Order invites have slowed to an absolute trickle. Tesla is nearly filling up the VIN activation blocks for the AWD FSCTs.

At some point possibly soon, Tesla will seem to have to show some cards. Either eg they open up non-FS AWD configuration orders, signaling they’re done with at least AWD FSCT orders (and have at that point not yet begun activating VINs over 1200), or instead possibly they start pumping out more FS invites AND begin activating VINs above 1200. Neither would be completely determinative, but fairly indicative of the direction probability is heading.

Until Tesla announces their intent, will be a while before we could piece together how many there are.

But again, for me, that Tesla isn’t already announcing their intentions is the biggest indication to me that whatever the current plan is, Tesla doesn’t intend to hold itself to it.

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