FS is closed, prove me wrong

[Gigahorse]

Does anyone have any evidence FS invitations were ever being sent out in a linear fashion?

Because this is what I see (from Invites tracker thread):

Seems like one wave, 12/8-9, with each subsequent mini-wave (or promotion) merely filling out nonstarters from the previous.

Multiply by 13 (only 1 in 13 orderers submit in thread above) and we get:

Meanwhile, ~33-unit daily production rate also seems to match what 66 days seems to have produced so far, roughly 2200 units. So hopefully yesterday's 70 was an attempt at a double.

FS invites going out today (2/20/2024) so don't think they are closed.

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[seadsmoney]

FS invites going out today (2/20/2024) so don't think they are closed.

This was predicted. See op
We should see another 33 reported or so in February after I posted that

 

[Gigahorse]

This was predicted. See op
We should see another 33 or so in February after I posted that

It looks like there are 100+ out in Feb so far and a good chunk of the month left. That would not prove much of a slowdown compared to Jan just looking at general numbers.

 

[Gigahorse]

This was predicted. See op
We should see another 33 or so in February after I posted that

Another wave going out today including " RN11287xxxx NY "
and PA

Foundation series invites appear to be far from over, would expect FS to be all that is available and delivered through 2024 and with latest round of invites possibly 2025

 

[CybertruckRN1127]

With the new referral credits getting AWD or Cyberbeast within 45 days. I believe non-FS will start in summer or fall of 2025. Tesla will open these line skips in waves too. There's going to be more to come.

The demand is there and Tesla will just milk it until no one will pay for the $20k FSD premium.

 

[Cybertruck26]

Eeeesh. I dunno dude. I hear what you’re saying but he talks out of his ass on the regular….

It’s hard for me to take a lot of what he says about production and timelines seriously.

That being said, I’m not smrt so there’s that…. ?

Yea, I mean... I know he is a major tech pusher, but- he is also the CEO/majority shareholder, in the end it's about selling more cars. The reservation fees are basically an interest free loan for them, the more people they sell the moon to, get reserved, the better for Tesla earnings/forward looking.

 

[Spacenoddle]

With the new referral credits getting AWD or Cyberbeast within 45 days. I believe non-FS will start in summer or fall of 2025. Tesla will open these line skips in waves too. There's going to be more to come.

The demand is there and Tesla will just milk it until no one will pay for the $20k FSD premium.

Summer or fall of 2025? Is it a typo? Do you really mean 2024?

 

[HaulingAss]

Where are you at? I need relocate…

Aparently, he lives someplace so undesirable that you can buy a mansion for $250K. ?

The market tells us how desirable a thing is by how much people are willing to pay for it. Where I live, if you can buy a house for $250K, it's a shack that nobody wants to live in and needs major renovation.

 

[seadsmoney]

It looks like there are 100+ out in Feb so far and a good chunk of the month left. That would not prove much of a slowdown compared to Jan just looking at general numbers.

See op
Specifically, look at the trend line from Dec to Feb. Note the prediction for Feb (~520 invites)

 

[Cybertruck2024]

Aparently, he lives someplace so undesirable that you can buy a mansion for $250K.

The market tells us how desirable a thing is by how much people are willing to pay for it. Where I live, if you can buy a house for $250K, it's a shack that nobody wants to live in and needs major renovation.

If you don't mind living in the snowiest city in America, you can get a nice house for $250k. I can drive a CT through the snow or a Chevy Cavalier at the beach. I'll stay here I guess.

 

[Cybertruck26]

If you don't mind living in the snowiest city in America, you can get a nice house for $250k. I can drive a CT through the snow or a Chevy Cavalier at the beach. I'll stay here I guess.

Where in Buffalo are you? I am originally from Clarence.

 

[Cybertruck2024]

Where in Buffalo are you? I am originally from Clarence.

I am right next to Clarence in the north towns. Bought a nice 2,500 sq ft house eight years ago for less than $250k. If you have thick skin and can manage the snow, it's a great place to live.

I think CA real estate is the exception and not the rule. I look at postings all over the country, most places $300k will get you something quite nice.

 

[Cybertruck26]

I am right next to Clarence in the north towns. Bought a nice 2,500 sq ft house eight years ago for less than $250k. If you have thick skin and can manage the snow, it's a great place to live.

I think CA real estate is the exception and not the rule. I look at postings all over the country, most places $300k will get you something quite nice.

Man, I miss Buffalo more than you know. I love California as a state, with all it's natural beauty, lakes, mountains and oceans... but- man, they find a way to really make it painful to live here imho.

There is no place like Buffalo when it comes to the people, the food, the sports camaraderie, and of course...the weather. I miss it all very much. But- living here has really made me appreciate the peace and crickets at night.

Yea, I graduated Clarence in 2000. I assume you're in Akron or Batavia, either way, seeing "Buffalo" made me homesick. Go Bills!

 

[CybertruckRN1127]

Summer or fall of 2025? Is it a typo? Do you really mean 2024?

No, I have a strong feeling it will be Summer 2025 before they open non Foundations.

What I see:
1) There's a ton of demand for the foundation and there is a high margin on selling the included FSD and accessories for $20k.
2) Cyberbeast is already estimating late 2024. This means you can't open non Foundations or people will just swap their order from FS to Non-FS to save the extra $20k.
3) Referral credit fast track. The 1st batch sold out within an hour. It also said if you miss it, there will be more. This means there is a huge demand for the Cybertruck leading back to #1.

I could be wrong and I don't care if I am, but I'm just trying to set some expectations. If people get non Foundations before summer 2025, then great, but don't get mad if they don't get it by then. Also, we all think the price will drop, but it could also go the other way. A non foundation AWD could be $90k and Breast go $110 or $120 without all the FS add-ons. FSD price could increase back to $15k or more once v12 matures. It's all a gamble at this point, but I would take the FS offer if you get it.

 

[HaulingAss]

If you don't mind living in the snowiest city in America, you can get a nice house for $250k. I can drive a CT through the snow or a Chevy Cavalier at the beach. I'll stay here I guess.

Looking at the last 30 years, I think Syracuse, N.Y, Rochester, NY and Erie, Pennsylvania might all beat Buffalo NY in terms of the most snow.

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