Future battery swaps

[Newton]

It would be very interesting to see the videos of crash tests and see what happens to the pack. If it cannot be replaced, insurance on CT will go through the roof.

Judging from the cars that i see on salvaged sites, it dosnt take much damage to be totaled. I dont see it being more than anything comparable

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[T3slaDad]

Judging from the cars that i see on salvaged sites, it dosnt take much damage to be totaled. I dont see it being more than anything comparable

Don't be so easily fooled by cars on copart and other salvage sites. I have restored many salvage cars in my time and can tell you first hand that wholesale salvage flippers will employ all kinds of techniques to make the body look good when flipping to uneducated salvage flippers/end users on those sites.

Example: a wholesale salvage flipper gets the totalled car from the insurance company for $2k. The front end is beat to heck. The wholesale salvage flipper then buys a front bumper and hood from a scrap yard that's the same color but may be a little beat up for $500. They do a crappy job bolting them on because it doesn't matter. Then they list the car on copart or the likes for $5k for salvage end buyers.

Uneducated buyers see that and say "wow! Not much front end damage, the bumper and hood are only a little messed up! This must have been a minor accident and cheap to fix and flip." They then bid it up to $6k expecting an easy fix.

The salvage buyer (who will likely fix and flip the car or keep it) then gets the car, just to find out that behind the front bumper and hood is a lot more hidden damage. They are puzzled how such damage could have been done when the bumper and hood looked relatively fine!


That's a super long example, but I've repaired cars for people who have bought salvages in that exact situation too many times. There are salvages that suffer very minor body damage (typically resulting in a little frame damage or bending), but they are rare and go for a lot of money compared to their other salvaged counterparts. Experienced wholesale salvage flippers know how to decieve inexperienced salvage flippers/end buyers as a result of everyone looking for those "easy fix and flips."

Back on topic, I'm pretty sure Tesla has planned for and made the 4680 packs easily replaceable while still giving them structural integrity ? they wouldn't weld the pack in, it would just be bolted on with is plenty strong enough. Tons of vehicles have frames that are bolted together in sections, but they are still considered very strong and durable while still being easier than cutting and welding to replace with bolting on new frame sections.

 

[Crissa]

It would be very interesting to see the videos of crash tests and see what happens to the pack. If it cannot be replaced, insurance on CT will go through the roof.

Not really. If you damage that part of your unibody vehicle, insurance usually totals it.

This won't really be all that different than other vehicles in that regard.

-Crissa

 

[ldjessee]

For the small fee of buying back my own cars that were totaled, thus I had knowledge of exactly what was wrong with them and what it would take to fix it, the car flipping places may do that sometimes, but there are plenty that cost and look very much like my own totaled vehicles, so I am going to guess that they did not bother.

I drove by such an auction place... acres and acres of vehicles. I did not see the small army it would take to do the swapping of parts you are talking about, nor the tools, facilities, etc...

So, they might do that if it is a smaller place, a rare vehicle, or one with a lot of upside (like totaled cars they want 1/2 or 1/3 of the blue book value, which is more than what my Subaru new cost; usually BMWs, Teslas, Mercedes, etc).

 

[Crissa]

I have put my own 'totaled' vehicles back on the road. And I'm not highly skilled. Enough paint damage and they'll total a car.

-Crissa

 

[T3slaDad]

For the small fee of buying back my own cars that were totaled, thus I had knowledge of exactly what was wrong with them and what it would take to fix it, the car flipping places may do that sometimes, but there are plenty that cost and look very much like my own totaled vehicles, so I am going to guess that they did not bother.

I drove by such an auction place... acres and acres of vehicles. I did not see the small army it would take to do the swapping of parts you are talking about, nor the tools, facilities, etc...

So, they might do that if it is a smaller place, a rare vehicle, or one with a lot of upside (like totaled cars they want 1/2 or 1/3 of the blue book value, which is more than what my Subaru new cost; usually BMWs, Teslas, Mercedes, etc).

It's actually more common on cars that have scrapper parts readily available like camrys, accords, and altimas for example. This is just from my experiences with totaled cars, you definitely don't have to take my word for it though as thousands of totaled cars are sold each day. I'm sure there are honest sellers out there ? Copart is a huge online auction database like eBay for wrecked cars.

Also, like I mentioed they do the work to the car before listing them, meaning before they take the cars to the yards. The yard often doesn't own the salvaged vehicles but stores them for the auctions and has no affiliation with the vehicles.

It's also not uncommon to see people flipping the same salvaged car a few times. Sometimes it'll go untouched between owners, but often it'll go from looking bad in one listing to them looking better in the next listing, and sometimes even going from undrivable to drivable, etc. From my experience, this is typically because someone gets the car, makes it look more presentable, and then flips it for more on the next listing. Or someone got shafted on trying to repair it under one budget, then after it turned out to be more expensive than they thought, has to sell it to regain their costs, etc.

All I'm saying is don't let the looks fool you when buying a salvaged car for repair, especially from online auction sites. Expect the worst when budgeting out the repairs and take the photos with a grain of salt.

One thing I also recommend doing is googling the VIN and also checking out the photo search results. That can usually give you an indication pretty easily when a car has recently been relisted on the same or different sites before and if so, you often get lucky to see photos of the car there too! That's where you'll typically see the car sold in worse condition before, then magically the damaged spot has a better looking bumper, fender, etc on the listing that's for sale right now. Red flag!!

Anywho, to each their own, just be safe out there when buying someone else's salvaged car because you don't know what happened to it. I definitely recommend buying back your own salvaged car because you know exactly what happened and what it looked like after the accident and there's no possibility for someone trying to pull the wool over your eyes on their vehicle.

 

[Crissa]

Motorcycles in the scrap yards tend to go the other way. From a recognizable motorcycle to an unrecognizable pile of junk as the good stuff is removed. Parts apart often sell for more than the bike put together.

The ones that get any work done on them show up on Craigslist.

-Crissa

 

[FutureBoy]

From what I understand, the replace cost is not for a new updated vehicle but for a vehicle of the same make and model year with similar distance on the odometer.

As such, the replace cost comes asymptotically close to $0 over time. Doesn’t really matter how much functionality you are currently getting from the vehicle. As such, even a cheap consumer car could theoretically get totaled over spilt coffee. Just depends how far out on the resale value curve you are.

 

[Diehard]

Motorcycles in the scrap yards tend to go the other way. From a recognizable motorcycle to an unrecognizable pile of junk as the good stuff is removed. Parts apart often sell for more than the bike put together.

The ones that get any work done on them show up on Craigslist.

-Crissa

Bought a street bike with a twisted frame super cheap. Still could ride it but a bit funny. Fixed the frame and had it for several years. Doing 0-60 in 2.6 sec for around $1000 is sweet. However hitting 140+ mph (allegedly) on a bike you know was totaled and has probably killed someone else already is probably not the smartest thing one could do.

 

[jonny]

Say there is a massive improvement in battery tech in the next 6 years and some 3rd party could make a battery with 2x the density of current Tesla tech at sat $50 per kWh at the cell level Can anybody else envision grinding out /removing their existing Lion batteries and swapping in new batteries that can also mimic the structural capacity of the Tesla batteries?

Ignoring the voided warranty, service issues, cooling and computer interface for a moment, say you could fit 420 kWh of new batteries in the same cavity. 420 x $75 ($25 for the pack) plus $5000 install would only be $36,500 and get a 1000 mile range.

So in theory I could cheap out and get the dual motor now (2023), drive it for a couple years, waste the remaining pack life, install the new pack in 2027 for a total cost of $86,500 and have 1000 miles of range. Crazy what ifs but with in the realm of the battery cost curve.

Thoughts?

Why don't you buy tesla powerwalls and put them in the back of the truck?

 

[T3slaDad]

Why don't you buy tesla powerwalls and put them in the back of the truck?

So the RAV4 EV is built with Tesla's old powertrain as toyota didn't want to do it themselves a few years back.

I bring you, the RAV4 EV T-Rex trailer!

 

[Tinker71]

I think the consensus is you will not be able to easily change out the battery pack because it will be structural maybe even glued in. What would be really cool if tesla could make a very special solvent that could break down the glue around the cells so they could be removed if a single cell failed, or for us DIY folks reconfigured in other configurations. Right now removing a single cell is extremely difficult and labor intensive.

I think Crissa and others are right, while structural, the battery pack will still be very removeable. Glued in, what was I thinking? I think the challenge is there will likely be an equal number of fasteners under the floorboards requiring most of the interior to be removed. If it is self supporting or ridged enough to add some overall strength it would still be an improvement in design efficiency.

I took this clip from a video of one of the prototypes. It looks like the battery could come in 2 sections.

This actually solidifies my original assertion. The dual motor will probably be the most frequently selected model. After 3 years of production there will be at least 200,000 rolling around. Many of those owners will want more range. Tesla or even 3rd party will make a pack upgrade that might cost less with possible better performance than paying for the upgrade to the tri motor now, specially if you figure the original pack is still worth $8k after 2 years of use. While I desperately want the range I an not sure if I can justify $20k having to supercharge an extra 20x per year. 20 X 3 years X $50 for 40 minutes is only $3000.

Sorry for the rant, I guess I will keep my reservation for my dual fsd dual motor for now. A lot can happen in 2 years. On a side note this would be about perfect timing for my solar tile roof at home. I could use my own battery.

 

[T3slaDad]

I think Crissa and others are right, while structural, the battery pack will still be very removeable. Glued in, what was I thinking? I think the challenge is there will likely be an equal number of fasteners under the floorboards requiring most of the interior to be removed. If it is self supporting or ridged enough to add some overall strength it would still be an improvement in design efficiency.

I took this clip from a video of one of the prototypes. It looks like the battery could come in 2 sections.

This actually solidifies my original assertion. The dual motor will probably be the most frequently selected model. After 3 years of production there will be at least 200,000 rolling around. Many of those owners will want more range. Tesla or even 3rd party will make a pack upgrade that might cost less with possible better performance than paying for the upgrade to the tri motor now, specially if you figure the original pack is still worth $8k after 2 years of use. While I desperately want the range I an not sure if I can justify $20k having to supercharge an extra 20x per year. 20 X 3 years X $50 for 40 minutes is only $3000.

Sorry for the rant, I guess I will keep my reservation for my dual fsd dual motor for now. A lot can happen in 2 years. On a side note this would be about perfect timing for my solar tile roof at home. I could use my own battery.

Glad to hear your thought process!! To validate your SC cost concerns, it only costs me about $10-$13 to supercharge from 20-85% on my LR RWD M3 (~211mi gained) depending how hot or cold it is outside (30-120F).

This is all on the normal 120kwh superchargers. Imagine the new 250kwh ones, AND the supposed 400+kwh charging rate of the CT!! You'll be looking at charging fees at about $10 and still go 80% on a 120kwh battery pack.

 

[Tinker71]

Glad to hear your thought process!! To validate your SC cost concerns, it only costs me about $10-$13 to supercharge from 20-85% on my LR RWD M3 (~211mi gained) depending how hot or cold it is outside (30-120F).

This is all on the normal 120kwh superchargers. Imagine the new 250kwh ones, AND the supposed 400+kwh charging rate of the CT!! You'll be looking at charging fees at about $10 and still go 80% on a 120kwh battery pack.

The $50 was for the opportunity cost for extra stops/time on a road trip. Saying a fueling stop takes a net 30 minutes over a typical ICE fueling. Sometimes you will be alone or have up to 5 others delayed. That number will vary by user. I consider the electricity cost a wash.

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