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Is 4th Quarter 2021 a realistic delivery date for the Cybertruck?

Mini2nut

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I’m with you brother! I am pretty confident that Tesla will start spitting out unpainted SS Cybertruck‘s in Q4 of 2021. They literally have billions in CT sales revenue and anxious buyers waiting in the wings.
 
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MEDICALJMP

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As delighted as I was to see them grading the land next next day, I am sticking to my prediction that the first Cybertruck will roll off the assembly line no earlier than September 2022. Happy to be proven wrong, but don’t hold your breath.
 

Balthezor

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As delighted as I was to see them grading the land next next day, I am sticking to my prediction that the first Cybertruck will roll off the assembly line no earlier than September 2022. Happy to be proven wrong, but don’t hold your breath.
God. I hope you are wrong.
 

TirNaOg

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If he has the factory up and running by end of year for say the MY then the CT by end of 21 I think is quite possible. Still think mine wont be ready any sooner then 22/23 august. Just my guess. I am way up the list.
 

Hookalakupua

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I’m with you brother! I am pretty confident that Tesla will start spitting out unpainted SS Cybertruck‘s in Q4 of 2021. They literally have billions in CT sales revenue and anxious buyers waiting in the wings.
Exactly! It’s going to be their top seller immediately and they will move heaven and earth to get it out next year! Not to mention the possibility of using the fleet for V2G. 😁😁
With Rivian just announcing a delivery date of 2021, no chance Elon gives them an entire year head start! He’s going to get these CT’s out in order to take over the market and the industry as a whole!
 

MEDICALJMP

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I am 518k+. My wait is on the order of excruciating. Still, better than those in the single motor, dual motor crowd or those who ordered May on. I will be living vicariously until then.
 

DrDefore

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For those who actually convert their deposit into an actual order, my prediction is you will, get your CT In 2023.
For an exoskeleton body/frame that nobody has yet to manufacture.. problems will arise. Problems = delays. I just hope they get it right!
 

ajdelange

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Plainly they need a fair number of vehicles to do real field testing with and so there is probably a pilot production line under construction somehwere right now. With that there will probably be a trickle of vehicles released to test personnel, employees, investors... by the end of next year and we may start to see a couple on the road then. As a guy where I am in the queue I have little expectation that I will see mine in 2022 even but I am hopeful.
 

TyPope

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Okay, all of that is just completely false. Simpler production operations without a doubt make the make the vehicle faster to produce and cheaper to produce too. Simpler operations to produce also make it a lot easier to automate production.
False. If, for instance, it always takes 54 seconds to install a windshield, it doesn't matter how many processes precede the windshield install or how many come after that, you can't produce any faster than one vehicle per every 54 seconds per line. It will make production much more simple but you can't produce (using a single assembly line) any faster than the slowest process in your production line.

You are correct that fewer processes typically makes it chaper to produce though.

- Former Industrial Engineer for General Motors here... and I KNOW line balance/material balance systems.
 

TyPope

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If you go by past experience. Not 1 Tesla model, to date, has come out on the initial expected target date. They have all been delayed.
Yeah... I got my Model Y June 20th of 2020... Elon said they'd be produced "Fall 2020". Last I checked, June of 2020 is a wee bit earlier than Fall of 2020.
 

59sjordan

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False. If, for instance, it always takes 54 seconds to install a windshield, it doesn't matter how many processes precede the windshield install or how many come after that, you can't produce any faster than one vehicle per every 54 seconds per line. It will make production much more simple but you can't produce (using a single assembly line) any faster than the slowest process in your production line.
I spend about 7 years at a GM car plant in General Assembly, I was not an Industrial Engineer nor did I do line balancing, but as I recall, if a process took more that the allotted time, they would have multiple stations and tools dedicated to that process. So if you had a process (i.e. windshield installation) that took 1 min 30 sec, you would have 2 separate tools in two different work stations installing that part. Thus still making the 53 sec window allowed, just taking up more floor space and was more expensive because you had to have multiple operators and multiple tools.

If I remember right they were doing this for cockpit install, fluid fill, and maybe others. I do remember multiple glass install stations, but I thought maybe they were for front and rear.

Just my thoughts. Not from an expert.
 

Cybr on

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Exactly! It’s going to be their top seller immediately and they will move heaven and earth to get it out next year! Not to mention the possibility of using the fleet for V2G. 😁😁
With Rivian just announcing a delivery date of 2021, no chance Elon gives them an entire year head start! He’s going to get these CT’s out in order to take over the market and the industry as a whole!
No chance in hell Elon would let that happen I’m guessing. If so, something fishy going on🤣
 

Sirfun

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False. If, for instance, it always takes 54 seconds to install a windshield, it doesn't matter how many processes precede the windshield install or how many come after that, you can't produce any faster than one vehicle per every 54 seconds per line. It will make production much more simple but you can't produce (using a single assembly line) any faster than the slowest process in your production line.

You are correct that fewer processes typically makes it chaper to produce though.

- Former Industrial Engineer for General Motors here... and I KNOW line balance/material balance systems.
So you're saying 9 women can't make a baby in 1 month.
 

Ehninger1212

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Yeah... I got my Model Y June 20th of 2020... Elon said they'd be produced "Fall 2020". Last I checked, June of 2020 is a wee bit earlier than Fall of 2020.
YUP! and they started deliveries in MARCH. and people still doubt Tesla.
 

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