It’s looking like 2024 for Cybertruck deliveries

[Mini2nut]

50k Cybertruck’s manufactured in 2023? That’s an extremely optimistic timeline.

If SOP starts mid 2023 Tesla would need to pop out 1,924 Cybertruck’s per week.

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[ED_SFO]

50k Cybertruck’s manufactured in 2023? That’s an extremely optimistic timeline.

If SOP starts mid 2023 Tesla would need to pop out 1,924 Cybertruck’s per week.

Yeah it takes prob 3 months to get the lines dialed in from finished install to test bodies...then 6 month from there to get to 1k vehicles a week...then 3 months for each additional 1k weekly production increase. This if everything goes perfect. I expect test bodies of CT in Feb or March...then the reveal sometime in 2nd quarter. Production starts in July. 200 CT in July..500 in Aug...1k in Sept...2k Oct..3k Nov..4k December.

 

[azjohn]

Looks to coincide with the competitors start getting serious with EV Trucks at least GM with the Silverado I expect Ford to try to keep up

 

[Crissa]

The Cybertruck is required to make the $25k work. It's new technology and new hopefully cheaper techniques.

-Crissa

 

[cybguy]

That is what I gained from yesterdays earnings report. it sounds like we will see pre-production Cybertruck’s running around Austin but volume production won’t happen until 2024. A few lucky buyers may receive their trucks in late 2023 however.

I have no doubt the truck will be worth it though. It will be a one of kind vehicle. What other vehicle will have a 3mm thick SS exoskeleton and looks like it was designed by aliens? Patience grasshoppers.

If everything goes perfect I think your timeline is a reasonable estimate. Of course there could easily be unexpected problems that push this timeline back a few months to a year. I was extremely over optimistic the night of the unveiling thinking production would start by 2022 and sales in 2023. Obviously batteries supply and cost were huge issues from the beginning I only placed my order 10 minutes into the unveiling because I wanted a new truck in 2023. I've since then I've become a more patient person.

 

[TirNaOg]

I have a question on reservations, isnt that just a place in line to order first?
I mean if your in PRe-order sya 150K in line but get the email to configure and order it and you end up doing that really really fats, , then might not your Order position be way before your pre-order position?
Of course that position also gets change based on Tesla's build preference I believe.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

It's simplicity should make it faster, but it's novelty will add unexpected complications. Will the unique nature of a new process make it so it comes out as wash?
Not trying to be a pessimist just thinking out loud.

Even if t was a wash, the Model Y is currently at about 2,000 per week and will likely be maybe double that by the end of the year. Tesla may end up delivering 50,000 Model Ys from gigatexas this year, and that is with a major hiccup in the early deliveries. 50,000 is hardly a lucky few, though I would not be one of them.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

I have a question on reservations, isnt that just a place in line to order first?
I mean if your in PRe-order sya 150K in line but get the email to configure and order it and you end up doing that really really fats, , then might not your Order position be way before your pre-order position?
Of course that position also gets change based on Tesla's build preference I believe.

They might have a response time baked into the queue but I suspect that as long as you configure within that timeframe no reshuffling would happen. It is important to remember that Tesla uses many criteria to order deliveries and not just queue position.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Yeah it takes prob 3 months to get the lines dialed in from finished install to test bodies...then 6 month from there to get to 1k vehicles a week...then 3 months for each additional 1k weekly production increase. This if everything goes perfect. I expect test bodies of CT in Feb or March...then the reveal sometime in 2nd quarter. Production starts in July. 200 CT in July..500 in Aug...1k in Sept...2k Oct..3k Nov..4k December.

That 'is' pessimistic. So youur prediction is around 8,000 for all of 2023? I hope that you are 'very' wrong.

 

[ED_SFO]

That 'is' pessimistic. So youur prediction is around 8,000 for all of 2023? I hope that you are 'very' wrong.

From my math about 11-12k
If you think pessimistic and realistic are one and the same...then you rather hear someone say they will make 50k in 6 months? Which is ridiculous Lol! It took giga Austin 4 months to hit 1k a week to make the model y, I see a brand new vehicle with new processes will take longer. Full ramp takes about 1 year.

 

[Crissa]

I have a question on reservations, isnt that just a place in line to order first?
I mean if your in PRe-order sya 150K in line but get the email to configure and order it and you end up doing that really really fats, , then might not your Order position be way before your pre-order position?
Of course that position also gets change based on Tesla's build preference I believe.

Yes. You can jump ahead by being quick, attentive, or ordering what stock they have on hand. Check the wait times for different features. There's invariably units that are returned or refused or mis-configured.

-Crissa

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

From my math about 11-12k
If you think pessimistic and realistic are one and the same...then you rather hear someone say they will make 50k in 6 months? Which is ridiculous Lol! It took giga Austin 4 months to hit 1k a week to make the model y, I see a brand new vehicle with new processes will take longer. Full ramp takes about 1 year.

For one thing, we have no data for how quickly a ramp of the Cybertruck will take. It is a brand new platform. We have the S, X, 3, and Y, in 4 factories in 3 countries. Elon Musk has said that Tesla plans to produce the Cybertruck in volume in 2023. He has not changed that statement. I do not claim to know the minimum for ‘volume’ production but suspect it could not be claimed with less than a 5,000 car/month run rate. At that they could make 50,000 in 2023. If you are right it will be a much longer wait. I will take Elon at his prediction until he fails to meet the prediction.

 

[charliemagpie]

Austin started as a mud heap with no trained staff and no systems in place.

Austin does not have benchmarks.

But now it has 2 running lines, means more trained people who can shift across(and growing fast), and warehousing, storage, toilets, car parks, and lunch rooms and all the other things which were not there before.

 

[RMK!]

Austin started as a mud heap with no trained staff and no systems in place.

Austin does not have benchmarks.

But now it has 2 running lines, means more trained people who can shift across(and growing fast), and warehousing, storage, toilets, car parks, and lunch rooms and all the other things which were not there before.

Yes, apples/oranges comparison. The Texas Giga Factory is humming along and new line startup will be much easier now. If the Giga Casting goes as expected and the supply chain isn't an issue, the ramp to full production should be very fast by even Tesla standards. I see the "at scale" SS body fabrication as a potential bottleneck but since Tesla is so amazingly good at implementing on the fly engineering changes, I remain optimistic.

Tesla needs the Cybertruck and, the new <$30K car as they will not cannibalize existing model sales and should bump Tesla to the top position in several market segments. No other car manufacturer outside of China could match Tesla in EV production. That under <$30K space will get crowded and Tesla's vertical integration and lean design principles will make them very hard to beat.

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