January Orders

[agordon117]

Updated as of today for you guys. We were at 9.4 vins per day avg from 3/7-3/13, we currently are at 7.4 vins per day avg over the previous 7 days ending yesterday. I expect the final numbers for vin assignments for that period will be equal to the 9.4 from an earlier week, but not everyone posts the same day their vin is assigned, so the numbers take a few days to solidify.

Usual disclaimers apply, this removes all assumptions about how many people have ordered vs registered orders on the forum (because we are counting known orders vs known vins). AWD orders are all that matter here, and the truth will be somewhere between the AWD and beast column, because beasts are shipping intermixed with AWD, even though they were given a later timeline. This also assumes no vins are assigned from later orders than 1/17, but we know in california that is happening often.

If we are extra generous and call it 10 vins per day, "Jan-March" orders are still between 46 and 78 days away from all having vins assigned.

March delivery orders remaining (1/17 cutoff, AWD)	All orders including beast, 1/17 cutoff	Known vins assigned per day (avg)	Days to last march AWD vin assignment	Days including beast
459	783	1	459	783
459	783	2	229.5	391.5
459	783	3	153	261
459	783	4	114.75	195.75
459	783	5	91.8	156.6
459	783	6	76.5	130.5
459	783	7	65.57142857	111.8571429
459	783	8	57.375	97.875
459	783	9	51	87
459	783	10	45.9	78.3
459	783	11	41.72727273	71.18181818
459	783	12	38.25	65.25
459	783	13	35.30769231	60.23076923
459	783	14	32.78571429	55.92857143
459	783	15	30.6	52.2
459	783	16	28.6875	48.9375
459	783	17	27	46.05882353
459	783	18	25.5	43.5
459	783	19	24.15789474	41.21052632
459	783	20	22.95	39.15
459	783	21	21.85714286	37.28571429
459	783	22	20.86363636	35.59090909
459	783	23	19.95652174	34.04347826
459	783	24	19.125	32.625
459	783	25	18.36	31.32
459	783	26	17.65384615	30.11538462
459	783	27	17	29
459	783	28	16.39285714	27.96428571
459	783	29	15.82758621	27
459	783	30	15.3	26.1

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[jasper7821]

Interesting. Bc I’m at 71 days but delivery window was Feb-April.

That’s what mine said. I got the email early afternoon on the 17th.

 

[jasper7821]

Picked up my CT!

CT AWD
RN: 11284XXX
Ordered on 1/23
VIN 0033XX on 3/8 (45 days after ordering)
Picked up on 3/25 (17 days after VIN)
Location: Northern California

So far I'm super impressed - this thing is AWESSOME! Delivered in perfect condition, no issues what so ever.

Couple (minor) annoyances:

1. Lack of Homelink (huge miss)
2. No birds-eye view when reversing the car
3. Lack of native support for Amazon music
4. Reverse camera quality is not very good at night
5. I seem to accidentally press the turn signal buttons once in a while

Overall I'm a very happy CT owner!!

Congratulations

 

[jasper7821]

Updated as of today for you guys. We were at 9.4 vins per day avg from 3/7-3/13, we currently are at 7.4 vins per day avg over the previous 7 days ending yesterday. I expect the final numbers for vin assignments for that period will be equal to the 9.4 from an earlier week, but not everyone posts the same day their vin is assigned, so the numbers take a few days to solidify.

Usual disclaimers apply, this removes all assumptions about how many people have ordered vs registered orders on the forum (because we are counting known orders vs known vins). AWD orders are all that matter here, and the truth will be somewhere between the AWD and beast column, because beasts are shipping intermixed with AWD, even though they were given a later timeline. This also assumes no vins are assigned from later orders than 1/17, but we know in california that is happening often.

If we are extra generous and call it 10 vins per day, "Jan-March" orders are still between 46 and 78 days away from all having vins assigned.

March delivery orders remaining (1/17 cutoff, AWD)	All orders including beast, 1/17 cutoff	Known vins assigned per day (avg)	Days to last march AWD vin assignment	Days including beast
459	783	1	459	783
459	783	2	229.5	391.5
459	783	3	153	261
459	783	4	114.75	195.75
459	783	5	91.8	156.6
459	783	6	76.5	130.5
459	783	7	65.57142857	111.8571429
459	783	8	57.375	97.875
459	783	9	51	87
459	783	10	45.9	78.3
459	783	11	41.72727273	71.18181818
459	783	12	38.25	65.25
459	783	13	35.30769231	60.23076923
459	783	14	32.78571429	55.92857143
459	783	15	30.6	52.2
459	783	16	28.6875	48.9375
459	783	17	27	46.05882353
459	783	18	25.5	43.5
459	783	19	24.15789474	41.21052632
459	783	20	22.95	39.15
459	783	21	21.85714286	37.28571429
459	783	22	20.86363636	35.59090909
459	783	23	19.95652174	34.04347826
459	783	24	19.125	32.625
459	783	25	18.36	31.32
459	783	26	17.65384615	30.11538462
459	783	27	17	29
459	783	28	16.39285714	27.96428571
459	783	29	15.82758621	27
459	783	30	15.3	26.1

Thank you

 

[bertley82]

Hmm I may ask about that option. If the credit to another vehicle thing is possible, I think I'll give Tesla until April 8th, and If no VIN by that date, I may buy a Model 3 instead.

This is 100% my plan, and our loan expires the 9th. Of course the sales specialist I’ve been in contact with acted like they had no way to move my $ I already paid for CT to a different model, but I’m confident I could make it happen.

 

[MeadowShade]

So, if they are making 1,000 per week per Joe, where are all the VINS going? Is it because this platform has a really small % of people that have ordered?

 

[agordon117]

So, if they are making 1,000 per week per Joe, where are all the VINS going? Is it because this platform has a really small % of people that have ordered?

There's a very small chance they are making 1000 per week, that number is just not correct. It's more like 630 per week, and we have about 10% of people posting here.

 

[jasper7821]

So, if they are making 1,000 per week per Joe, where are all the VINS going? Is it because this platform has a really small % of people that have ordered?

For sure, the production is way up but seems deliveries are the same as they were a few months ago.

 

[MeadowShade]

For sure, the production is way up but seems deliveries are the same as they were a few months ago.

So today, I get shoved back a little further ... shareholder offering went out again today. Guessing that tags another month on to the delivery date.

Some of these guys have not even had a reservation. This is just really wrong.

 

[Kiborg]

So, if they are making 1,000 per week per Joe, where are all the VINS going? Is it because this platform has a really small % of people that have ordered?

I suspect they moving the trucks to destination first and then assigning VINs once the trucks are ready for delivery.

 

[jasper7821]

So today, I get shoved back a little further ... shareholder offering went out again today. Guessing that tags another month on to the delivery date.

Some of these guys have not even had a reservation. This is just really wrong.

That's right, there may be a bunch daily going to them.

 

[MeadowShade]

I configured 1/17 and it said Jan to March but some people that day and 1/18 got Feb to April timeline. I'm day 71 but willing to wear a smile until mid April. I am expecting vin next week or tomorrow tbh.

Keep hoping that. I am one day behind you but then I could easily be a month in front of you with the "non-system" used by Tesla. I am so tired of "special" people crawling over my head to get in front of me that I know I am further from the front than ever ... so often ... I have athletes scalp!

 

[mark555055c]

I suspect they moving the trucks to destination first and then assigning VINs once the trucks are ready for delivery.

I am really hoping this is the case.

Perhaps the VIN is assigned to the customer at the factory as it has been, but they are delaying the email alert to the customer and when it shows in the Tesla app.

This would probably be a win/win for Tesla and the customer if they did it this way.

-Quick VIN to delivery from the customer perspective.
-Service centers can prep the vehicles with less pressure.
-If a vehicle needs a repair or a part after transport, it's not apparent to the customer.

Tesla's own moto after all is "The best service is no service", so if many customers are needing service right after delivery, that is not optimal.

 

[Kiborg]

I am really hoping this is the case.

Perhaps the VIN is assigned to the customer at the factory as it has been, but they are delaying the email alert to the customer and when it shows in the Tesla app. It would probably be a win / win for Tesla and the customer if they did it this way. Quick VIN to delivery, service centers can prep the vehicles with a bit less pressure,

Yes, and no calls from customers with VINs asking “Where is my truck? Can you ping it, I have the VIN?”

 

[mallenbrand]

I suspect we are still months away from normal January configurations to non CA/TX/FL. With several hundred still pending from December orders, special deliveries and estimated 10% representation here. We are 4000+ deliveries away from getting a truck.

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