luxe package after February 14?

[The Tesla Guy]

It's true that FSD Transfer is scheduled to end on March 31, 2026. However, Tesla has offered FSD transfer five times, starting with the original "one-time offer of amnesty" in 3Q 2023. No one should be shocked if a sixth phase of FSD Transfer is announced later this year.

Here are two official responses to two questions I asked Tesla, which should make things very clear:

Question:
The So can I assume that if I place an order for a new dual motor cybertruck before March 29 for a new cybertruck trading in my cybertruck?
FSD transfer can take place whenever it's delivered or does the transfer have to happen before March 29?

Answer:
“As long as you get the order in and get the FSD transfer initiated before March 31st, you're okay if delivery takes place after“


Question:
Can you confirm that a foundation series cybertruck is eligible for FSD transfer?

Answer:
“Can confirm, Foundation Series can transfer FSD, it's just a manual transfer that we process on the back-end instead of the automated process for other deals”

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[turns2stone]

It's true that FSD Transfer is scheduled to end on March 31, 2026. However, Tesla has previously offered FSD transfer five times, starting with the original "one-time offer of amnesty" in 3Q 2023. No one should be shocked if a sixth phase of FSD Transfer is announced later this year.

I personally would be surprised if they ever allow it again. We're in a different era now... Elon literally has a pay package that depends on the number of active FSD subscribers. Every customer that he allows to transfer FSD is one less new car that will be sold with a subscription.

And they want new cars sold after March 31, 2026 to be standardized. No mis-mash of some vehicles able to get transfer, etc. Either you pay a subscription, or you don't have it. Doesn't matter if HW3, AI4 or AI5... pay Tesla $99.

 

[The Tesla Guy]

It's true that FSD Transfer is scheduled to end on March 31, 2026. However, Tesla has previously offered FSD transfer five times, starting with the original "one-time offer of amnesty" in 3Q 2023. No one should be shocked if a sixth phase of FSD Transfer is announced later this year.

This is completely different. This will be the end of purchased FSD. (Non-subscription) altogether.

Two phased…
Phase 1 is completed just as announced so we can pretty much count on phase 2 being executed on schedule.

Phase 1:
February 14 End of purchased FSD on New Car Purchases

Phase 2:
March 31 End of FSD transfers.

 

[YDR37]

I personally would be surprised if they ever allow it again. We're in a different era now... Elon literally has a pay package that depends on the number of active FSD subscribers. Every customer that he allows to transfer FSD is one less new car that will be sold with a subscription.

Well, maybe you're right. The whole point of FSD Transfer is that you can buy new hardware (a new Tesla vehicle) without having to pay for new software (a new license for FSD). So in effect, FSD Transfer means that Tesla gives up software sales in order to boost hardware sales.

And that does run completely opposite to the incentives in Elon's package. Tesla needs to have 20 million vehicles on the road by 2035, but that's an easy goal to reach, even if sales fall. Tesla has already delivered more than 9 million vehicles, and they delivered 1.6 million in 2025. At that rate, they should hit the 20 million vehicle goal a few years ahead of schedule.

The FSD target is a lot tougher: 10 million subscribers by 2035, and they only have 1.1 million now. So Elon needs to boost the software sales, not the hardware sales. And in that context, it makes no sense to give up software sales in order to boost hardware sales.

 

[HaulingAss]

The FSD target is a lot tougher: 10 million subscribers by 2035, and they only have 1.1 million now. So Elon needs to boost the software sales, not the hardware sales. And in that context, it makes no sense to give up software sales in order to boost hardware sales.

If FSD becomes fully autonomous within a year, and it sure looks like it will, getting 10 million FSD subscribers will happen a lot sooner than 2035. This is not even a hurdle once FSD is fully autonomous. My best guess? 10 million FSD subscriptions by 2030-2031.

 

[YDR37]

The FSD target is a lot tougher: 10 million subscribers by 2035, and they only have 1.1 million now. So Elon needs to boost the software sales, not the hardware sales. And in that context, it makes no sense to give up software sales in order to boost hardware sales.

So if FSD Transfer no longer makes sense, then ... what does make sense?

In theory, Tesla could give up hardware revenue in order to boost software revenue. This could maybe mean significant discounts on the purchase price of an AWD Cybertruck, Model Y, or Model 3 -- if the buyer commits to a long-term FSD subscription. Tesla would lose some profits on the hardware, but gain subscribers to the software.

 

[turns2stone]

So if FSD Transfer no longer makes sense, then ... what does make sense?

In theory, Tesla could give up hardware revenue in order to boost software revenue. This could maybe mean discounts on the Model Y and Model 3, if the buyer commits to a long-term FSD subscription. Tesla would lose some profits on the hardware, but gain subscribers to the software.

Tesla wants/needs the software sales... hardware/vehicle production capacity is going to be scaled via Optimus (which is why S/X are about gone), so Tesla needs that recurring revenue. Every incremental $99/month subscription costs them just pennies in COGS. Vehicle COGS can be extremely variable and margins get squeezed all the time due to labor, or macro-enconomics or supply chain.

 

[AverageJoe]

Ah. Free model 3 with 12 year fsd subscription non transferable sound terrible for tesla

Wait isnt there a company providing a subscription to cars instead of vehicle specific leases so you can have an suv, truck, sedan when you need one.

Now they could get two subscriptions

 

[YDR37]

Tesla wants/needs the software sales... hardware/vehicle production capacity is going to be scaled via Optimus (which is why S/X are about gone), so Tesla needs that recurring revenue. Every incremental $99/month subscription costs them just pennies in COGS. Vehicle COGS can be extremely variable and margins get squeezed all the time due to labor, or macro-enconomics or supply chain.

Seems like it makes sense then. Tesla could offer significant discounts on purchase of an AWD Cybertruck, Model Y, and Model 3 -- if the buyer commits to a long-term FSD subscription.

It would be kind of like buying a printer. Printers are surprisingly cheap -- but the toner/ink cartridges are surprisingly expensive. The manufacturer makes little or no profit on the printer itself, but that's OK, because they make plenty of profit on the recurring purchases of the cartridges. In the same way, Tesla could theoretically make little or no profit on vehicles sales, but then make a healthy profit from the recurring FSD subscription fees.

Ideally they would license FSD to other manufacturers. Obviously Tesla makes no money when Ford or Hyundai sell an EV, but they would if Tesla FSD was an available option on those vehicles. Elon's package just requires FSD subscriptions; it doesn't say that those subscriptions have to be for Tesla vehicles.

 

[turns2stone]

Seems like it makes sense then. Tesla could offer significant discounts on purchase of an AWD Cybertruck, Model Y, and Model 3 -- if the buyer commits to a long-term FSD subscription.

It would be kind of like buying a printer. Printers are surprisingly cheap -- but the toner/ink cartridges are surprisingly expensive. The manufacturer makes little or no profit on the printer itself, but gets plenty of profit on the recurring purchases of the cartridges. In the same way, Tesla could theoretically make little or no profit on vehicles sales, but then profit from the recurring FSD subscription fees.

The one-time purchase was essentially the 'long term subscription... ain't nothing like that coming back

But yes, I'm sure Elon wouldn't mind it being like a printer. Elon keeps vehicle prices down, and keeps improving FSD (funded by monthly subs) so it keeps that technology gap over the competition.

 

[YDR37]

The one-time purchase was essentially the 'long term subscription... ain't nothing like that coming back

I meant "long-term subscription" in the sense of "buyer commits to five years of monthly FSD payments" (or something like that).

What if Tesla offered an attractive discount on a new vehicle in exchange for an FSD subscription -- and then the buyer cancelled the FSD subscription after one month? That wouldn't work. So the buyer would have to commit to maintaining that $99 monthly FSD subscription on some long-term basis.

 

[turns2stone]

I meant "long-term subscription" in the sense of "buyer commits to five years of monthly FSD payments" (or something like that).

Obviously it wouldn't help Tesla if they offered attractive discounts on new vehicles in exchange for FSD subscription, only for the buyer to cancel his FSD subscription after one month.

Yeah I understood what you meant.. it's just never gonna happen. Maybe you can get a year of FSD for $999, kinda like they do for Premium Connectivity. But no longer.

 

[YDR37]

Yeah I understood what you meant.. it's just never gonna happen. Maybe you can get a year of FSD for $999, kinda like they do for Premium Connectivity. But no longer.

Doesn't have to be a big payment in advance. Buyer gets a discount on vehicle purchase price, but only if he signs a contract committing to (for example) 60 future monthly $99 FSD payments (i.e. every month for the next five years). It's just to prevent the buyer from taking the discount, then cancelling FSD immediately.

 

[turns2stone]

Doesn't have to be a big payment in advance. Buyer gets a discount on vehicle purchase price, but only if he signs a contract committing to (for example) 60 future monthly $99 FSD payments (i.e. every month for the next five years). It's just to prevent the buyer from taking the discount, then cancelling FSD immediately.

You're describing added complexity for both consumer and Tesla. The Elon/Tesla philosophy is to drive to simplicity.... $99 (or higher) every month, for every car. No transfers, no one is 'owed' different hardware, etc.

You can wish for a lot of things, but Tesla has already told us what to expect.

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