Master Plan Part 3: Cybertruck Stated To Carry a 100kWh High Nickel Battery Pack, ex. Model X / S

[Ogre]

That column isn’t a sales projection. That column is showing the existing fleet that needs to be replaced.

Here is the intro paragraph which provided context to that chart:

Today there are 1.4B vehicles globally and annual passenger vehicle production of ~85M vehicles, according to OICA. Based on pack size assumptions, the vehicle fleet will require 112 TWh of batteriesaa. Autonomy has potential to reduce the global fleet, and annual production required, through improved vehicle utilization.

If you sum up all of cars listed in the column which says “Global Fleet”, it equals 1.4B.

They suggest in that last sentence that the total fleet size will likely shrink due to autonomy. Here’s the full page for reference.

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[Crissa]

-Crissa

 

[Diehard]

I am more interested in power consumption of production CT at 70 mph. I am sure we will have acceptable battery size options. Not sure about the prices that goes with those options.

 

[ÆCIII]

Charts in a general Master Plan are likely not exact specs, but rather minimal or example values to support the presented concept. I would not fixate on too many details of it as though it were a final spec sheet, because of course it is certainly not.

- ÆCIII

 

[S.H.Peterson]

Pretty sure this slide is not describing what CT will use.

the chart is within a section describing how transition to green will require, amongst other things, conversion to BEVs - and providing estimates of what that future may look like or require.

This slide is then attempting to make an estimation of the TWh of batteries that would be needed for complete BEV conversion globally. To arrive at that TWh estimate, it assumes that larger vehicles will need more energy-dense batteries, and will on average need about a 100kWh pack of those high density batteries.

This chart simply gives a “Tesla equivalent” example of the sizes of vehicles likely to need various energy-density packs, and on average what those pack sizes would be, in order to come up with a loosely accurate estimation of global TWhs needed.

It does not say that the CyberTruck itself will use a Nickle battery, or have a 100kWh pack, when releases. Maybe it will or won’t, but this chart isn’t taking a position on that

Here’s the operative description of the chart (and it’s FN):

“Vehicles

Today there are 1.4B vehicles globally and annual passenger vehicle production of ~85M vehicles, according to OICA. Based on pack size assumptions, the vehicle fleet will require 112 TWh of batteriesaa. Autonomy has potential to reduce the global fleet, and annual production required, through improved vehicle utilization.

Standard-range vehicles can utilize the lower energy density chemistries (LFP), whereas long-range vehicles require higher energy density chemistries (high nickel). Cathode assignment to vehicle segment is listed in the table below. High Nickel refers to low to zero cobalt Nickel Manganese cathodes currently in production, under development at Tesla, Tesla’s suppliers and in research groups.

[FN:]
To approximate the battery storage required to displace 100% of road vehicles, the global fleet size, pack size (kWh)/ Global passenger fleet size and annual production (~85M vehicles/year) is based on data from OICA. The number of vehicles by segment is estimated based on S&P Global sales data. For buses and trucks, the US-to-global fleet scalar of ~5x is used as global data was unavailable.”

I love the thoughtfulness and intelligence of your replies

 

[Macgreiner]

100kWh is not going to get us to 500 m range. Maybe this the base model.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

I am more interested in power consumption of production CT at 70 mph. I am sure we will have acceptable battery size options. Not sure about the prices that goes with those options.

At least 70 mph, I'm more thinking 77-82mph. Seems to be the flow of traffic in the fast lane for long road trips I do.

I know this has been said by others, so I'm beating a dead horse here. But I'm really hoping they have a secret top range model with over 600mi of range. I'd be happy paying 100K for a 630mi range tri or quad motor.

-Also side note.... not so sure Quad motor is happening anymore. Looks like Elon deleted that tweet at some point, I can't seem to find it anymore. Not saying that means its not happening but why delete that tweet then.

 

[Kahpernicus]

At least 70 mph, I'm more thinking 77-82mph. Seems to be the flow of traffic in the fast lane for long road trips I do.

I know this has been said by others, so I'm beating a dead horse here. But I'm really hoping they have a secret top range model with over 600mi of range. I'd be happy paying 100K for a 630mi range tri or quad motor.

-Also side note.... not so sure Quad motor is happening anymore. Looks like Elon deleted that tweet at some point, I can't seem to find it anymore. Not saying that means its not happening but why delete that tweet then.

 

[Diehard]

At least 70 mph, I'm more thinking 77-82mph. Seems to be the flow of traffic in the fast lane for long road trips I do.

I know this has been said by others, so I'm beating a dead horse here. But I'm really hoping they have a secret top range model with over 600mi of range. I'd be happy paying 100K for a 630mi range tri or quad motor.

-Also side note.... not so sure Quad motor is happening anymore. Looks like Elon deleted that tweet at some point, I can't seem to find it anymore. Not saying that means its not happening but why delete that tweet then.

Of course the comfortable speed is different on different roads but most tests with other EVs have been done at 70 mph. This makes it a good reference point to see how CT's coefficient of drag translates to power consumption saving comparatively.

The highest range would be interesting to see. On one hand Elan likes to break records and now that Ram is talking about 500 mile range, you would think that would be hit at least on one of CT trims. On the other hand I think I hear Elon saying in an interview that for most drivers most of the time hauling around extra battery you don't use does not make sense (especially with fast charging capability of CT and the additional hit you get on payload for carrying the extra batteries). We should find out soon enough. For me 350 highway miles is enough especially if V4 superchargers get installed fast.

 

[CyberGus]

Elon's tweet is definitely why we've all assumed the Quad was first, but maybe conditions have changed in the last year, and Elon forgot to tell us

 

[ScoobyDoo]

AHH "4 motor variant". I kept searching his tweets with "quad motor" in it. thanks!

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Of course the comfortable speed is different on different roads but most tests with other EVs have been done at 70 mph. This makes it a good reference point to see how CT's coefficient of drag translates to power consumption saving comparatively.

The highest range would be interesting to see. On one hand Elan likes to break records and now that Ram is talking about 500 mile range, you would think that would be hit at least on one of CT trims. On the other hand I think I hear Elon saying in an interview that for most drivers most of the time hauling around extra battery you don't use does not make sense (especially with fast charging capability of CT and the additional hit you get on payload for carrying the extra batteries). We should find out soon enough. For me 350 highway miles is enough especially if V4 superchargers get installed fast.

I wonder if there will be variants of the v4 superchargers because last night on Tesla Daily with Rob Mower there was something about the v4 supercharger being installed in (I think) Canada was rated at 350kw max which is not the jump in power I was hoping for, for charging CT. But maybe the information wasn't correct.

 

[Ogre]

Elon's tweet is definitely why we've all assumed the Quad was first, but maybe conditions have changed in the last year, and Elon forgot to tell us

The Semi was originally supposed to be quad motor truck as well.

 

[Diehard]

I wonder if there will be variants of the v4 superchargers because last night on Tesla Daily with Rob Mower there was something about the v4 supercharger being installed in (I think) Canada was rated at 350kw max which is not the jump in power I was hoping for, for charging CT. But maybe the information wasn't correct.

May be it is because currently there are no Tesla's on the road that can charge at higher speeds. Once CT is on the road, they may bump them up. This is the sticker on a V4:

 

[ED_SFO]

I bet Tesla will one day build their own giga presses which would be much smaller and more efficient than current IDRA units. In the mean time we need more CT leaks!!

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