Musk on Affordable Electric Truck

[Ogre]

Regardless, Telsa has changed prices or agreements. Look at what they did with the solar roof. People had to fight to get them to honor their orders. There is no way that 4 years after the reveal they are going to be selling the CT for those original preorder prices. Most previous orders were filled within a year. Once I saw the quad motor come out it struck me that we will likely never see the original configurations. And thus, never see the original pricing.

Sure. I pointed out as much above.

I was just pointing out that your particular example was weird.

My feeling on the Cybertruck is what comes out of of the meat grinder isn’t going to look like the sample sausage they made 3 years ago. They may well be Budget, Middle of the road, and Supreme options, but they won’t look the same and the choices people will make may be different.

Not a prediction, but just an example of what might come out of the meat grinder:

Cybertruck AWD SR: 250 miles, $50k
Cybertruck AWD LR: 450 miles, $65k
Cybertruck Plaid (Quad): $95k

They wouldn’t be raising the prices on the menu, they would be changing the nature of the menu items.

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[anionic1]

Sure. I pointed out as much above.

I was just pointing out that your particular example was weird.

My feeling on the Cybertruck is what comes out of of the meat grinder isn’t going to look like the sample sausage they made 3 years ago. They may well be Budget, Middle of the road, and Supreme options, but they won’t look the same and the choices people will make may be different.

Not a prediction, but just an example of what might come out of the meat grinder:

Cybertruck AWD SR: 250 miles, $50k
Cybertruck AWD LR: 450 miles, $65k
Cybertruck Plaid (Quad): $95k

They wouldn’t be raising the prices on the menu, they would be changing the nature of the menu items.

I really have a hard time seeing how the CT that weighs almost 2000 lbs more could have a price anywhere near the Model 3. Just for Tesla to buy that additional 2000 lbs of material they are looking at probably around $6k not including processing it into a vehicle. And thats using $3/lb which is probably close. Copper is slightly over, stainless steel is slightly under etc. So they would logically be selling the CT at a lower profit margin just looking at the weight of the material they have to purchase. I get that everyone thinks the CT is going to come off the assembly line like origami swans so efficiently that its going to be so cheap to make, but I have my doubts that will anywhere near make up for the added cost. I think we will see $15k added to each of your numbers.

 

[Crissa]

here is an example. This is exactly what they will do with the CT. They will change the options and tell people they need to change their order and bam... new pricing.

That was for orders that had been held onto for over a year.

They could have changed their options earlier.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

I really have a hard time seeing how the CT that weighs almost 2000 lbs more could have a price anywhere near the Model 3. Just for Tesla to buy that additional 2000 lbs of material they are looking at probably around $6k not including processing it into a vehicle. And thats using $3/lb which is probably close. Copper is slightly over, stainless steel is slightly under etc. So they would logically be selling the CT at a lower profit margin just looking at the weight of the material they have to purchase. I get that everyone thinks the CT is going to come off the assembly line like origami swans so efficiently that its going to be so cheap to make, but I have my doubts that will anywhere near make up for the added cost. I think we will see $15k added to each of your numbers.

We know the base Cybertruck was priced $10,000 less than the Model Y AWD at launch day. So that pretty much tosses your whole “Vehicles are priced by weight” theory out the window. Just a little research on car/ truck prices reveals there is very little correlation between vehicle size in the rest of the industry either.

You are moving away from the whole premise that this is about inflation. Instead you are suggesting Tesla mis-priced the Cybertruck 2+ years ago and will use inflation as an excuse to fix that error.

Why do you think Tesla priced the Cybertruck the way they did? Massive mistake? Deliberate deceit?

 

[anionic1]

Exactly how many high precision robots are you installing?

I built a laser lab for Miyachi in Monrovia that makes heart stints with lasers among all other sorts of crazy laser stuff. If Telsa uses lasers they likely get them from Miyachi. Doesn't get much more high precision than that. I also relocated NBCUniversal's satellite farm from the mountains to their lot in Universal City and had to coordinate astronomical surveys to align the largest satellite. If Telsa came to me today and said they needed a budget on a new manufacturing facility in California, I could have a price to them by the end of the week and be within a few percent of the contract price. As Elon has mentioned, the facilities building the product are much more complicated than the product itself. A bunch of high precision robots would be the least of my concerns.

 

[John K]

Not a prediction, but just an example of what might come out of the meat grinder:

Cybertruck AWD SR: 250 miles, $50k
Cybertruck AWD LR: 450 miles, $65k
Cybertruck Plaid (Quad): $95k

What is the range on the Quad? I have some serious lying justification on why I need the Quad.

In conclusion, I reject yours and everyone’s doom and gloom and continue to live in the world where a purchase decision is made when the knowledge is known.

if you sweetened the pot with free FSD included with Quad… ??

 

[anionic1]

What is the range on the Quad? I have some serious lying justification on why I need the Quad.

In conclusion, I reject yours and everyone’s doom and gloom and continue to live in the world where a purchase decision is made when the knowledge is known.

if you sweetened the pot with free FSD included with Quad… ??

I am just trying to figure out how much of my children' college fund I need to redirect for our (my) future family vehicle! And maybe start researching which are the most democratic countries where the male pays for the wedding because I have many daughters. And of course we need the CT for them to drive off in at their weddings.... so its not like I am trying not to contribute.

 

[anionic1]

We know the base Cybertruck was priced $10,000 less than the Model Y AWD at launch day. So that pretty much tosses your whole “Vehicles are priced by weight” theory out the window. Just a little research on car/ truck prices reveals there is very little correlation between vehicle size in the rest of the industry either.

You are moving away from the whole premise that this is about inflation. Instead you are suggesting Tesla mis-priced the Cybertruck 2+ years ago and will use inflation as an excuse to fix that error.

Why do you think Tesla priced the Cybertruck the way they did? Massive mistake? Deliberate deceit?

We shall see.

 

[Ogre]

We shall see.

People forget quickly. Tesla told us exactly how they were going to bring the biggest cost of the Cybertruck down on battery day. The Austin 4680 line is needs to be online before the Cybertruck starts production. Once that is complete, most of these cost reductions in cell cost are realized.

The Model 3 has 2170 cells which are sourced from Panasonic and cost about $100-130/ kWh. The Cybertruck will have 4680 cells produced in-house which will cost much much less. It is very possible the 125 kWh pack in the base Cybertruck is around the cost of the 82 kWh of the Model 3 LR.

 

[Crissa]

And Tesla keeps the secret of their cost close to their chest but every time it's come up, Elon usually says they beat the number people guess. And whatever their number is, it's already 30% lower than the rest of the industry.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

Cutting cell costs massively is what battery day was all about. It is literally Tesla saying how they would do this seemingly impossible thing.


Most everyone ignored it.


Most everyone still ignores it.

 

[Ogre]

What is the range on the Quad? I have some serious lying justification on why I need the Quad.

In conclusion, I reject yours and everyone’s doom and gloom and continue to live in the world where a purchase decision is made when the knowledge is known.

if you sweetened the pot with free FSD included with Quad… ??

I freely admit my conjecture about pricing is in fact conjecture.

FSD is one of those places where Tesla has a lot of flexibility and they did discount it in the past.

 

[Ogre]

I am just trying to figure out how much of my children' college fund I need to redirect for our (my) future family vehicle! And maybe start researching which are the most democratic countries where the male pays for the wedding because I have many daughters. And of course we need the CT for them to drive off in at their weddings.... so its not like I am trying not to contribute.

This makes little sense to me. I get that you’d want to plan ahead that makes sense.

But don’t you have a budget in mind? For me, if the prices drift much, I’m just going to go without. That budget changes if my financial situation changes, but it has little to do with how much Tesla flexes their pricing.

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