anionic1
Well-known member
- First Name
- Michael
- Joined
- Apr 30, 2021
- Threads
- 29
- Messages
- 1,650
- Reaction score
- 1,988
- Location
- California
- Vehicles
- Cybertruck
- Occupation
- Estimator
Reminds me of my first car. 1990 Lincoln. After 100k miles basically everything started failing.Yeah I regret and apologize for using the "i" word even though it was directed at no one here, I still shouldn't have written that.
It is astonishing that these widely varied sources are making the same basic error. I can most helpfully point to the year-by-year sales data posted earlier and note that the number of vehicles actually in operation today (283 m) = 19 years of actual sales and that over the past 26 years, the vehicle sales have averaged 15.5 million a year and we are refreshing the fleet at a rate of just over 5% per annum which is to say a refresh rate of about 20 years if we lost zero to accidents and zero to export and zero were retired early for other reasons (e.g. driving a lot of miles) and the fleet was not growing. But we do lose a bunch to accidents and exports and early retirement and the fleet is growing not shrinking. And for all of these reasons it is painfully obvious that the average vehicle must last over 20 years or the totals do not add up.
And just a bit more food for thought, what this really says is that the vehicles sold in ~2000 lasted for 20 years. How long will the vehicles sold in 2023 last? Unknown. But the trend over the past forty years has been a growing average fleet age as vehicles last longer.
Back when I was a wee tike, vehicles only lasted 10 years or so and the average age was ~ 6 years.
Sponsored