Electric Truck Economics - Worth the Price?

[anionic1]

Yeah I regret and apologize for using the "i" word even though it was directed at no one here, I still shouldn't have written that.

It is astonishing that these widely varied sources are making the same basic error. I can most helpfully point to the year-by-year sales data posted earlier and note that the number of vehicles actually in operation today (283 m) = 19 years of actual sales and that over the past 26 years, the vehicle sales have averaged 15.5 million a year and we are refreshing the fleet at a rate of just over 5% per annum which is to say a refresh rate of about 20 years if we lost zero to accidents and zero to export and zero were retired early for other reasons (e.g. driving a lot of miles) and the fleet was not growing. But we do lose a bunch to accidents and exports and early retirement and the fleet is growing not shrinking. And for all of these reasons it is painfully obvious that the average vehicle must last over 20 years or the totals do not add up.

And just a bit more food for thought, what this really says is that the vehicles sold in ~2000 lasted for 20 years. How long will the vehicles sold in 2023 last? Unknown. But the trend over the past forty years has been a growing average fleet age as vehicles last longer.

Back when I was a wee tike, vehicles only lasted 10 years or so and the average age was ~ 6 years.

Reminds me of my first car. 1990 Lincoln. After 100k miles basically everything started failing.

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[wtibbit]

"Visualize the intelligence of the average person, and then realize that 50% of the people are dumber than that." - George Carlin

Some can't visualize that.

I mentioned to an (unnamed) acquaintance the rather obvious fact that half the population has an IQ under 100. He told me that's impossible because his IQ was "...just about that" and he was "...more intelligent than most of the people I know." Apparently rudimentary statistics and the IQ methodology isn't addressed in IQ testing.

 

[roadrunner32]

Been thinking about the economics of electric trucks as I contemplate executing on my early reservation. Financials don't seem to make sense to me... With a typical battery replacement cost of $15-20k on a model S today, what will it cost for a cybertruck battery twice the size? Let's say it costs $30k. And - given history with Tesla's - you can expect to either replace a couple of motors or the battery pack within the first 150k miles or more. I believe this aspect is contributing to plummeting used Tesla values lately - particularly the ones on the other side of 50k miles. Obviously, declining new prices are a big factor too...

So - assuming you own a cyber for 150k miles and you're out somewhere north of $30k for a battery or motors on average...was it worth it? Alternatively - a solid one ton diesel wouldn't have any material problems in that range. So - you're thinking gas savings? If I drove the diesel 150k miles, let's say 15 or so mpg at $6 / gallon, that's $60k on gas for the duration. Depending on your cost of electricity, I'm guessing there is a big savings comparatively - let's say it costs $10k. So - $50k savings in fuel, loss of $30k in Tesla differential upkeep loss. Net $20k for the period. But - not so fast - Cybertruck will cost at least that much more than a solid FS diesel.

So - no net economic benefit / neutral if you're lucky - but you get the untested reliability and range anxiety of a cybertruck? Lot's of reasons to own one - just don't be fooled into thinking $$ is one of them.

Prove me wrong

Watched a movie last night where the driver and friend were on a return drive home late at night on a winding country highway, went off the road and crashed. That right there is enough reason to get a Tesla. I can't tell you how many times in blinding rain on narrow lanes on a freeway, auto pilot made the drive much easier and I think safer too. ALSO, there is the story of Chuck Smith driving a Tesla, had a heart attack at 55mph, and auto pilot saved his life. Google search you tube for the story.

 

[Crissa]

Watched a movie last night where the driver and friend were on a return drive home late at night on a winding country highway, went off the road and crashed. That right there is enough reason to get a Tesla. I can't tell you how many times in blinding rain on narrow lanes on a freeway, auto pilot made the drive much easier and I think safer too. ALSO, there is the story of Chuck Smith driving a Tesla, had a heart attack at 55mph, and auto pilot saved his life. Google search you tube for the story.

You can find many instances of this. It's kinda frightening and amazing.

https://www.google.com/search?q=man+had+a+heart+attack+his+tesla+saved+his+life

-Crissa

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