My 2022 Cybertruck MSRP predictions. Are you sitting down?

[Mini2nut]

I have given a lot of thought as to what the new Dual Motor and Tri Motor pricing structure will be. There is NO WAY that Tesla will honor the MSRP’s that were revealed in 2019 (legally they do not have to). It was strictly a teaser price to drum up interest in the vehicle. I considered inflation, increased costs for raw materials such as copper, aluminum and nickel, crazy demand for the vehicle, competition (no comps on the market), standard features may include RWS, etc. Here is my prediction…

-Single Motor: It will most likely be dropped to minimize assembly line complexity. Tesla will claim low demand but It MAY be offered in the future, say 4-6 years, when Cybertruck supply catches up to demand. Here are my MSRP predictions;

-Dual Motor: $57,900 MSRP plus destination fee (currently $1,200)
-Tri Motor: $77,900 MSRP plus destination fee (currently $1,200)

These MSRP’s are for BASE MODELS with ZERO options. Adding RWS, FSD, solar bed cover, wheels, vehicle wrap, white/space gray interior, etc. will increase the final price significantly.

Please chime in and share your thoughts.

Sponsored

 

[FutureBoy]

I given a lot of thought to what the new Dual Motor and Tri Motor pricing will be. There is NO WAY that Tesla will honor the MSRP’s that were revealed in 2019 (legally they do not have to). It was strictly a teaser price to drum up interest in the vehicle. I considered inflation pressure, crazy demand for the vehicle, competition (nothing else like it in the marketplace), standard features, etc. Here is my prediction…

-Single Motor: It will most likely be dropped to help simplify manufacturing efficiency. Tesla will claim low demand but It MAY be offered in 3-5 years when Cybertruck supply catches up to demand
-Dual Motor: $56,900 MSRP plus destination fee (currently $1,200)
-Tri Motor: $76,900 plus destination fee (currently $1,200)

These MSRP’s are for base models with zero options. Adding RWS, FSD, solar panels, wheels, etc. will increase the final price significantly.

Please chime in and share your thoughts.

My thought is that you are thinking like a traditional auto manufacturer executive. From what I've seen, Tesla makes almost everything standard save a few performance-specific features. For CT that would be the number of motors, and Solar tonneau. Then there are some features that can be enabled/disabled through software so that they can be paid on a subscription basis (think FSD). But the primary hardware (short of the motors and associated drivetrains) will most likely be identical between the various CT levels. And by simplifying the build, the price to do the build can be saved. Plus the cost of goods can take advantage of greater bulk buying. All to make a lower-cost build that needs much less build-specific maintenance. Given all that, I don't disagree with your assertion that the process will go up. Inflation and all. But I would argue that the prices quoted to existing reservation holders will stand firm. Your mileage may vary.

 

[Mini2nut]

Keep in mind that Tesla has increased the base price of a Model Y $6k since February of this year. I feel that my MSRP estimates are on the conservative side.

 

[happy intruder]

My thought is that you are thinking like a traditional auto manufacturer executive. From what I've seen, Tesla makes almost everything standard save a few performance-specific features. For CT that would be the number of motors, and Solar tonneau. Then there are some features that can be enabled/disabled through software so that they can be paid on a subscription basis (think FSD). But the primary hardware (short of the motors and associated drivetrains) will most likely be identical between the various CT levels. And by simplifying the build, the price to do the build can be saved. Plus the cost of goods can take advantage of greater bulk buying. All to make a lower-cost build that needs much less build-specific maintenance. Given all that, I don't disagree with your assertion that the process will go up. Inflation and all. But I would argue that the prices quoted to existing reservation holders will stand firm. Your mileage may vary.

they may leave the price that was quoted on reveal night to only those who ordered the first night or day, or gradually increase based on a number quota.......first 50k gets reveal.....next 50k gets increase and so on......maybe the number may be higher say format 100k gets reveal price......its within their prerogative......but if they do, I think people will understand.....its just hard to guess what Elon will do.......I hope you are right and that everyone will get the quoted price

 

[Crissa]

Keep in mind that Tesla has increased the base price of a Model Y $6k since February of this year. I feel that my MSRP estimates are on the conservative side.

...Which hasn't impacted the demand on the Y below their ability to produce.

So why wouldn't they raise their price? It's standard economics.

But you know who they didn't raise the price on? Any of their reservation holders.

-Crissa

 

[John K]

I reject your theory on the basis to never give the other party ammunition in negotiating. In fact, with delays, I expect extra charging credits and an addition keycard. Viva negotiation!

 

[John K]

I reject you Tesla employees trying to condition us for a price correction

?

 

[Mini2nut]

You may be correct as Tesla strives for assembly line efficiency by minimizing option choices. Tesla‘s have very few trim levels to choose from with minimal options.

For example, Model Y buyers only have two trim levels to choose from. Once a trim level is chosen you only have 6 options to choose from. I think the Cybertruck options will be minimal and will mimic other Tesla offerings. Current Model Y options;

-Paint color
-Wheels (Dual Motor only)
-Tow hitch
-Interior (white)
-Seat layout (5 or 7 passenger)
-FSD

 

[Zabhawkin]

Depending on what options are available it could easily be that or higher. FSD is $7000 for early reservation holders who selected it $10,000 now, optional tire packages on the model X is $5500, optional interior color $1-2000. It wouldn't surprise me if you could get a Tri-motor up close to $100,000 depending on the options Tesla decides to make available.

 

[Mini2nut]

For reference, a base Model X is now $100k before options with a September 2022 delivery estimate.

 

[Diehard]

Reality may be something in between. Tesla May start with original pricing with lower margins and find an excuse (not that they need one) to raise prices. I doubt they will come out and say the first 50K will get the original price but they may have an internal plan on how to do it. Best scenario case for us, they will hold original price until all reservations made before website change is exhausted but that is a large number and a lot of money to pass up for Tesla. Here are some reasons they may start with advertised price:

• By the time they are ready for mass production, steel and and raw material prices may have adjusted to lower level.
• Silverado has been announced, Rivian may have revealed the lower price version and $40K F150 may be on the road. Even if CT establishes itself as a superior product, lower price options put a limit on how high it can go (that impact is less evident while there is a backlog of reservation holders)
• Tesla may want to keep their track record of coming to market as advertised or better.

All that said, I wouldn’t be shocked if your prediction is correct.

I reject your theory on the basis to never give the other party ammunition in negotiating. In fact, with delays, I expect extra charging credits and an addition keycard. Viva negotiation!

Good one You can only negotiate if you make reservation holder union. You lead, I will follow. As of now, Tesla does not even see the necessity to communicate with us let alone negotiate.

 

[SpaceYooper]

My willingness to buy a vehicle this expensive will be based on the premium I'm paying for the CT vs the cost of used 1/2 ton that I would normally buy. CT price - Used truck price = the premium. Then figuring out the break-even point for that premium by doing the math for the price of gas, and the price of electricity at my house. If the break-even is more than 15 years, I will not buy. So high-priced gas, and high-priced used vehicles, and low-priced electricity favor buying the Tesla. As the environment around me changes, my priorities, plans, and actions change.

 

[CyberGus]

I'll pay an extra $10k if I can have it tomorrow.

 

[TK0384]

I'd be ok with only the first 50k in line getting the original promise price. Since I'm around 57k in line and I anticipate some people backing out or postponing their purchase, that puts me in the good group. Ha!

Sponsored