New Administration Will Reverse the $7,500 Incentive

[HaulingAss]

I guess that's possible, but switching suppliers won't be fast or cheap.

As a side note, I went down a rabbit hole and learned that according to data Tesla submitted to the NHTSA, about 15-25% of their vehicle content comes from outside the US or Canada.

Was it Cybertruck specific, or for other models too?

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[HaulingAss]

I just get the sense that the price is going to fall further when it becomes obvious that the tax incentive will not happen and Elon has to further incentivize to drive sales.

You are thinking about demand incorrectly.

There are still people waiting to purchase because they have been told by bad actors that tax incentives for the Cybertruck are imminent. When it becomes obvious that is not true, and the stricter 2025 battery mineral sourcing rules will make it ineligible anyway, demand will increase, not decrease. People will stop waiting for something that's not going to happen.

Further, I expect the new administration to act quickly to carry out their promises to stop pushing EVs.

In other words, people who would only buy a Cybertruck if they got a $7,500 tax credit will never buy a Cybertruck anyway. Because the new adminstration is not going to keep the tax credits AND magically make the Cybertruck eligible. That would be one of the biggest flip-flops in the history of a new administration and they would lose a huge amount of support and goodwill.

Demand will increase when people realize there will be no Cybertruck tax credits. It's becoming increasingly obvious that the supply of new Cybertrucks is becoming tighter as we approach year end, not more easily available.